Call to the Pen is checking in on sportsbook odds for who is going to launch the most dingers in 2020. Who are the favorites and the best bets to pace the league in home runs during the 2020 MLB season?
With the 2020 MLB season around the corner, the books are posting lines for a number of categories. One of the most interesting lines is who will lead the league in Home runs for 2020. Fanduel has posted their lines for most Home Runs and the favorites probably won’t surprise you.
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Most Home Runs in 2020
- Joey Gallo +1000
- Mike Trout +1000
- Pete Alonso +1000
- Aaron Judge +1300
- Giancarlo Stanton +1500
- Cody Bellinger +1600
- Nolan Arenado +1600
- Bryce Harper +2200
- Eugenio Suarez +2200
- Yordan Alvarez +2200
- Christian Yelich +2500
- Matt Olson +2500
The 2019 leader for home runs was Mets rookie Pete Alonso with 53 while the 2018 leader resided in Oakland with Khris Davis with 48. Presumably, the 2020 leader will be in that same range even without the juiced ball the league has been using the past two seasons.
The two smart picks here are Arenado and Suarez. Both players are in stadiums conducive to home runs. Depending on what baseball you think MLB would use, Coors and Great American Ball Park would be the least likely stadiums affected by a less juiced ball. In addition, Cincinnati made a number of offensive upgrades (Castellanos, Moustakas, and Akiyama) that should allow Suarez to get more at bats. Meanwhile, Arenado should get the same boost from Trevor Story, David Dahl, and a breakout from Ryan McMahon
Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich at +2500 might have the most upside as he hit 44 home runs in only 130 games and retains his elite skillset including one of the best exit velocities in the league.
Some other solid picks are Nelson Cruz at +3500 who lead the league in Barrels/PA at 12.5%. Juan Soto at +4800 is another solid pick if you think he could grow into more power. One last long shot with good value you could see leading the league is Rhys Hoskins, who plays in an offensive friendly park and has one of the longest average distance on hits by Statcast.
The 2020 MLB season is yet to get under way but one of the biggest questions is what ball will the league use. Whatever the league chooses will have a significant impact not only on the game but on who will lead the league in home runs. While Trout, Gallo, and Alonso are the favorites to win the title, there are other interesting players who have a compelling case to take home the hardware.