New York Yankees: So you want to trade for Steven Matz?

The New York Yankees have shown interest in LHP Steven Matz. What would the Bombers have to give up to bring Matz to the Bronx?

This season is going much the same for the New York Yankees with injuries piling up. Two-fifths of the rotation is already down with Luis Severino needing Tommy John and James Paxton having back surgery.

The Yankees didn’t have to look very far for a potential replacement as they have their eyes over in Queens on Mets LHP Steven Matz. Last season, Matz had his best year since 2016 throwing 160.1 innings of with a 4.21 ERA and 1.6 fWAR. He’s a true four-pitch slinger whose fastball averages 93.4 MPH and generates 47 groundballs.

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At this point, the Matz’s name value probably outweighs his actual value. Still, Matz is only 28 years old and can be controlled this year and in 2021. Matz will make $5M this season and will probably make $7M-$8M in his last year of arbitration. So Matz can be controlled for ~$13M over two years which is a reasonable price for a back-end starter.

The Mets will be marketing Matz as a 2 WAR, mid-rotation pitcher and likely wouldn’t take less than that valuation. Using an $8M/WAR valuation, if Matz lives up to the 2 WAR billing this year and next he would have a future value of $32M and have a surplus-value of around $20M.

At that value, the Mets could expect to receive a 50 FV pitching prospect.

Matz career-high innings total is the 160.1 he threw this season so he’s no more certain than a number of other Yankees’ internal options. Besides 2016 and 2019, Matz has been worth less than 1 WAR in each of those seasons.

More realistically, the Yankees probably value Matz as a 1.5 WAR player which would be a $24M future value projection. After taking out his salary, Matz would only have $11M in future value which isn’t going to net much of a return.

The Yankees have a number of interesting guys in the low minors that could interest the Mets like TJ Sikkema or Roansy Contreras. Maybe the Mets don’t want an arm, instead, they could target a far away toolsy wild card.

The ultimate point is, it’s not going to be a sexy trade if Matz is traded to the Yankees or anyone else. Matz is the most valuable to the Mets as a 5th starter or depth in the likely probability of injuries.

The New York Yankees have enough internal options they should hold off on making trades and evaluate what they need at the trade deadline.