Chicago Cubs: The race is on for the center field nod

Nothing glamorizes spring training like position battles! The Chicago Cubs have an intriguing one going on for center field between two well-known players.

The Chicago Cubs don’t have much to figure out this spring from a positional standpoint. First base, third base, shortstop, left field, and catcher are gimmes.

Second base is a bit up in the air, though it seems the spot is Nico Hoerner’s to lose. The main race is in center field, where Albert Almora and Ian Happ are currently duking it out.

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This is a fascinating clash, as the organization has favored both players for quite some time. In fact, the two names have essentially been synonymous since 2016, a year in which Happ ranked as the Cubs’ top prospect and Almora ranked as their #3 prospect.

Each has endured considerable major league playing time over the past three seasons, though neither has panned out as the club had hoped — at least not yet.

The case for Ian Happ

The Cubs are obsessed with Happ’s potential with a bat in his hands. He was granted a 60-grade hit tool coming out of the 2015 draft.

To give some perspective, Kris Bryant received a grade of 55 at the time of his draft. Happ has a quick bat from both sides and a ton of pop for his 6’0”, 205 LB stature. He hit 24 home runs in only 364 at-bats with Chicago in 2017.

The strikeout has been his Achilles heel, however. He struck out every third AB in 2017, and his K-rate only grew the following season with the Cubs.

As the strikeout totals grew, Happ’s confidence seemed to naturally waver. He spent most of 2019 in Triple-A where he recorded a slash line of .242/.364/.432. He fanned 113 times in 359 at-bats.

With the starting center field spot at stake, and perhaps the organization losing patience, this spring is mighty important for the 25-year-old. He’s off to a nice start, going 7-for-15 with two homers and one strikeout over six games.

How does he fit?

Happ can bat anywhere in the Chicago lineup. The top slots are typically reserved for quality contact hitters, though the Chicago Cubs are an exception to that formality.

Kyle Schwarber frequented the leadoff spot under Joe Maddon; Schwarber has averaged 148 strikeouts over his last three seasons. Now, new manager David Ross has voiced his intentions to hit Kris Bryant leadoff to start 2020. Bryant stuck out 145 times last season, which were third-most on the team.

Point being, their lineup construction has few limitations. Though pragmatically speaking, it wouldn’t make much sense to add a strikeout-prone hitter to a top of the order that is already strikeout-prone.

Happ is worthy of a high spot in the order when he is at his best, but it may take some time for him to earn that trust this go around. Expect him to hit 7th or 8th if he makes the team.

The case for Albert Almora

Also 25 years old, Almora has proven to have more staying power than Happ. Almora played 152 games for the Cubs in 2018, but just 130 games in 2019.

He was healthy, but he didn’t perform last year. His batting average dropped 50 points, his OBP 52 points, and his WAR went from 1.7 to -1.0. He took a step back defensively as well, going from a 1.1 dWAR player in 2018 to a -0.4 dWAR player in 2019.

I’m not sure the Cubs have a true gauge on Almora to this point. Flashes of brilliance have mixed with moments of carelessness. He has the tools of an impact player, though he lacks in many of the game’s impact points, such as on-base percentage, home runs, and runs created.

He can look good on the field, but what is he really bringing to the team?

Despite spending a lot of time as the Chicago Cubs’ everyday center fielder, Almora is part of an even playing field this spring. He’s proven up to the challenge thus far, hitting .533 with two home runs in six spring training games.

How does he fit?

Defense is Almora’s ticket to playing time. He has tremendous arm strength and plenty of range. He’s especially important in an outfield with Kyle Schwarber, who lacks range and brings down the Cubs’ defensive numbers.

The Cubs already have a great offense, so all Almora really must do is blend in. If he can hit .280 and reach base close to a third of the time then he’s well worth a spot in the lineup. He hit .286 with a .323 OBP the year he played 152 games.

He must play stellar defense and get on base to make up for his low power and modest base-stealing ability. If he can’t do those things then he’ll just be getting in the way of a squad with loads of potential.