Phillies: Dual 3-batter strategy for 2020

Roster-construction wrinkles occurred during the Phillies offseason and will affect the final three innings of regulation games for the relief corps and the skipper’s heart of the order.

Challenging duels:   

In the last two Philadelphia Phillies campaigns, the lords of baseball have limited trips to the mound, and ’20 will be the first MLB summer with the three-batter minimum. Barring exceptions, thought, a pitcher must face three hitters before the manager can remove him; so, what will lefty specialists become? An extinct species?

IN OTHER WORDS:    “Change is inevitable. Progress is optional.” – Tony Robbins

After some faithful supporters had tuned out baseball following the signings of Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius, they are unaware of how game-changing this new rule is. For instance, a control-challenged reliever in the sixth or seventh frame can spell trouble for his manager by having to face three batters.

Barring injury, illness, ejection or an inning’s end, every hurler will face three hitters. But if one batter has a certain pitcher’s number, an alternative might not be available or on the IL (injured list). Additionally, retiring hitters from both sides of the plate will matter except for side-heavy lineups: the right-handed New York Yankees.

While the skipper and pitching coach decide which reliever can handle three players due up with the game on the line, that manager must also surround his top hitter with his best two opposite-side bats. Therefore, this strategy is the three-dimensional chess of pitching changes with plenty at stake.

Jpe Girardi has recently stated he will surround Bryce Harper with his two best right-side bats. Ergo, Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto will be in front of and behind the right fielder. And Harper will probably slot third, while the other two will be in the two and four holes.

For Girardi, he has three possible southpaw bullpen pieces, but one may be a bit more shaky against right-side hitters. And his five right-handers –three are on a slower schedule due to last year’s IL finish– can handle any batters. Yes, the cautious routine is normal for moundsmen who missed significant time in the prior 162.

Some Atlanta Braves’, Washington Nationals’ and New York Mets’ relievers have question marks, plus some may have experienced only temporary success. And combining that with the Fightins balanced middle of the order (two through five holes) could be an advantage.

One slot, three arms:         

For three Phillies candidates, two five-slot possibilities will be in the pen: Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta and/or Ranger Suarez. Rule of thumb: the acceptable performance rate is 75-80 percent. To illustrate, Pivetta made 17 relief appearances with 12 acceptable outings for 70.6 percent.

Phillies statistical results toward 75-80 percent: 

• Velasquez: 6 good, 2 so-so and 2 bad (1 blowup) out of 10 total for 80%
• Pivetta: 11 good, 1 so-so and 5 bad (1 blowup) out of 17 total for 70.6%
• Suarez: 28 good, 3 so-so and 6 bad (0 blowups) out of 37 total for 83.8%

Even though Velasquez is the favorite to be the fifth starter, Suarez is a stronger-than-advertised consideration. Bullpen-wise, Velasquez had eight acceptable performances out of 10 for 80 percent. Plus pitching one or two frames is doable for he and Pivetta. Ergo, realistic!

Basic splits:

• RP Pivetta vs. right-side bats: 48 1/3 Inn., a 6.70 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP.
  vs. left-side bats: 45 1/3 Inn., a 2.97 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP.
• RP Velasquez vs. right-side bats: 66 Inn., a 4.91 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP.
  vs. left-side bats: 51 1/3 Inn., a 4.91 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP.
• *LP Suarez vs. left-side bats: 17 1/3 Inn., a 2.60 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP.
  vs. right-side bats: 31 1/3 Inn., a 3.45 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP.
• * All in relief.

Being a left-hander, Suarez is a possibility due to a right-heavy rotation and his successful relief work. Plus the Los Angeles Dodgers and St. Louis Cardinals have youngsters in bullpen roles before offering them a shot to make the five-man staff.. So, Suarez might be ready to start after consistently getting outs.

When it comes to baseball’s business end, many fans are oblivious to player availability due to their expectations. Ergo, general manager Matt Klentak and his contemporaries must usually sign a previously injured or aging reliever to fill out their pens, and sidelined hurlers are on a slower pace with some extending into April.

Many locals won’t see Victor Arano and Tommy Hunter and shouldn’t anticipate them being ready by Opening Day. No, both will probably be on the IL until May 1. But both will likely have MiLB rehab assignments in late April after ramping up during extended spring training in Clearwater.

2018’s Basic splits:

• RP Arano vs. right-side bats: 36 Inn., a 2.50 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP.
  vs. left-side bats: 23 1/3 Inn., a 3.09 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP.
• RP Hunter vs. right-side bats: 31 Inn., a 3.77 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP.
  vs. left-side bats: 33 Inn., a 3.82 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP.

Healthy and ready:         

In his first Phillies season, portsider Jose Alvarez was the only reliever besides Hector Neris to avoid a lengthy absence. And he basically faced both-side hitters equally and was serviceable against right-handed batters. Yes, Klentak’s acquisition!

Phillies statistical results toward 75-80 percent: 

• Alvarez: 43 good (1 opener), 8 so-so and 16 bad (1 blowup) out of 67 total for 76.1%
• Morgan: 34 good, 2 so-so and 4 bad (3 blowups) out of 40 total for 90%
• Dominguez: 16 good, 4 so-so and 7 bad (1 blowup) out of 27 total for 74.1%
• Neris: 50 good, 3 so-so and 15 bad (2 blowups) out of 68 total for 77.9%

Seranthony Dominguez and Adam Morgan are on slower schedules after finishing 2019 on the IL. Finally, they made their first appearances of one scoreless inning apiece on March 5, but relievers don’t require more than 2-3 weeks to be ready.

Basic splits:

• LP Alvarez vs. left-side bats: 29 2/3 Inn., a 2.43 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP.
  vs. right-side bats: 29 1/3 Inn., a 4.30 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP.
• LP Morgan vs. left-side bats: 14 1/3 Inn., a 3.77 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP.
  vs. right-side bats: 15 1/3 Inn., a 4.11 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP.
• RP Dominguez vs. right-side bats: 15 2/3 Inn., a 2.87 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP.
  vs. left-side bats: 9 Inn., a 6.00 ERA and a 2.11 WHIP.
• RP Neris vs. right-side bats: 36 1/3 Inn., a 2.48 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.
  vs. left-side bats: 31 1/3 Inn., a 3.45 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP.

In ’19, Morgan’s numbers were similar against hitters regardless of batting side with an acceptable rate of 90 percent. Meanwhile, Dominguez can record critical outs in the eighth and ninth frames, plus the flamethrower’s velocity after one outing has increased from 94 mph to 96 mph: Previously, he averaged 97.7 mph.

Despite the faithful’s doubts, Neris produced acceptable outings in 77.9 percent of his 68 appearances. But although he isn’t a championship-level closer, he is the red pinstripes’ best reliever. However, Dominguez and Robertson could be better options for more difficult outs.

2018’s Basic splits:

• RP Robertson vs. right-side bats: 37 Inn., a 2.43 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP.
  vs. left-side bats: 32 2/3 Inn., a 4.13 ERA and a 0.95 WHIP.

Robertson believes he didn’t have a contract-completed injury and will return in 2020’s second half, but others aren’t as optimistic regarding July. Basically, he wants to prove he’s healthy and effective, plus returning will help him in his walk year for a new deal. Translation: He is a pennant-winning-caliber fireman.

Run-producing machine:

To complete the Phillies relief corps first, the most important aspect is handling at least three batters. And although that’s difficult to easily reconstruct, facing at least two hitters is doable. So, here’s a list of relievers who pitched to two batters or more per outing.

Phillies bullpen pieces in 2019:

• Velasquez: 10 of 10 for 100%
• Pivetta: 17 of 17 for 100%
• Alvarez: 60 of 67 for 89.6%
• Suarez: 35 of 37 for 94.6%
• Morgan: 29 of 40 for 72.5%
• Dominguez: 26 of 27 for 96.3%
• Neris: 66 of 68 for 97.1%
• Total: 243 of 266 for 91.4% (2 hitters or more).

Phillies bullpen pieces in 2018:

• Arano: 57 of 60 for 95%
• Hunter: 63 of 65 for 96.9%
• Robertson: 69 of 69 for 100%

Having a mix of left-handed and right-side bats is a solid weapon when the opposing manager can’t change hurlers to compensate for a balanced lineup. Currently, the Fightins have Harper, Gregorius and Bruce from the left side, while they have right-handed hitters Hoskins and Realmuto.

If a skipper faces a batting order of Realmuto (R), Harper (L), Hoskins (R) and Gregorius (L) with a right-hander, he must pitch to Realmuto and Hoskins to avoid Harper. Or a southpaw will skip Hoskins and handle Harper and Gregorius.

To sum up, the Phils bullpen doesn’t have one-batter specialists, plus they have a balanced lineup to make a comeback in the final three frames. So, while some doubting Thomases are bemoaning the rotation, the pen and the offense, what might 2020 have in store for them? Surprises!