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San Diego Padres: Spring Training rotation breakdown

By Joseph Romano

SAN DIEGO, CA - JULY 29: Chris Paddack #59 of the San Diego Padres pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles at Petco Park July 29, 2019 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CA - JULY 29: Chris Paddack #59 of the San Diego Padres pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles at Petco Park July 29, 2019 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
(Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /

Fifth Starter: Joey Lucchesi

The second-year San Diego Padres starter saw a bump in innings in 2019 at 163.2 – an increase of 33.2 innings from the season prior – and a full slate of 30 starts. The 6-5 southpaw’s quirky delivery is bound to appear odd from the outside, yet for him, it has become second nature, as has starting in the big leagues.

Managing to make 56 starts in his first two seasons is quite an impressive feat for the 26-year-old, although he does not quite have the most ravishing movement or velocity. In contrast to most of San Diego’s starters, Joey Lucchesi lacks the high-powered component and attacks the zone horizontally rather than vertically.

Lucchesi completely transformed his repertoire in 2019, going from the reliance on a sinker – approximately 63% of the time – and opting for a four-seam fastball, which he eventually used 51% of the time. The sinker evolved into a cutter, his undoubtedly third pitch, while his put out pitch was a newly developed slider.

The curveball that earned a significant usage in 2018, seemingly evaporated last season, yet early indications from Spring Training appear as if that pitch will come back into play.  This sweeping curveball is vital because it, indeed, adds a vertical tilt to his arsenal – providing a different look to the fastball, change-up mix.

The main concerns for Lucchesi in 2020 are his walk rate and luck. He issued 56 walks in 2019, enough for a BB/9 rate above 3.0 – while not staggering enough to get one’s attention. This issue becomes compounded when viewed in conversation with his underlying stats.

Last season his K/9 rate dropped nearly 1.5 points, while his ground ball percentage only rose 2.0%. Therefore, he was heavily relying upon flyballs to get his outs, especially in contrast to the season prior. Also, his BABIP against dipped from over .300 to .271 and his HR/FB percentage miraculously improved by nearly 7%.

If he is continuing to rely on flyball outs, the same luck might not be there in 2020 as these stats can adjust to the norm. Or inversely, he could establish the new norm in 2020.

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