San Diego Padres: Spring Training rotation breakdown
The San Diego Padres finished last season in last in the NL West. Their 2020 rotation has been updated and primed for success. Let’s take a deeper dive.
The San Diego Padres finished the 2019 season with a record of 70-92, finishing in last place in the National League West. After two offseasons of spending, this came as a disappointment, yet 2020 could very possibly the progress that the San Diego faithful have been long seeking.
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The depth of a successful pitching staff can never be underestimated, as it accounts for stagnations in development, unprepared rookies, and injuries. Therefore, it is advisable for a roster’s construction to hinge upon at least seven starters as opposed to five.
The sixth and seventh starter can bolster the ranks of the bullpen in times of health prosperity and with the advent of discord, such a commodity prevents panic – allowing these relievers with starting ability to seamlessly slide into the starting rotation.
In the Fall of 2019 and Winter of 2020, the San Diego Padres and GM A.J. Preller sought to fortify the bullpen beyond the exploits of top of the line closer Kirby Yates. They re-signed reliable middle reliever Craig Stammen, re-acquainted themselves with former starter turned reliever Drew Pomeranz and dealt Manuel Margot for Rays reliever Emilio Pagan.
Along the same line, rotation acquisitions, the maturation of prospects, and rehabilitation of the injured have allowed for 2019 starter Matt Strahm to also enter the bullpen ranks. Along with a potentially deeper and more consistent lineup, 2020 might see a reinvigoration for baseball in San Diego.
Fifth Starter: Joey Lucchesi
The second-year San Diego Padres starter saw a bump in innings in 2019 at 163.2 – an increase of 33.2 innings from the season prior – and a full slate of 30 starts. The 6-5 southpaw’s quirky delivery is bound to appear odd from the outside, yet for him, it has become second nature, as has starting in the big leagues.
Managing to make 56 starts in his first two seasons is quite an impressive feat for the 26-year-old, although he does not quite have the most ravishing movement or velocity. In contrast to most of San Diego’s starters, Joey Lucchesi lacks the high-powered component and attacks the zone horizontally rather than vertically.
Lucchesi completely transformed his repertoire in 2019, going from the reliance on a sinker – approximately 63% of the time – and opting for a four-seam fastball, which he eventually used 51% of the time. The sinker evolved into a cutter, his undoubtedly third pitch, while his put out pitch was a newly developed slider.
The curveball that earned a significant usage in 2018, seemingly evaporated last season, yet early indications from Spring Training appear as if that pitch will come back into play. This sweeping curveball is vital because it, indeed, adds a vertical tilt to his arsenal – providing a different look to the fastball, change-up mix.
The main concerns for Lucchesi in 2020 are his walk rate and luck. He issued 56 walks in 2019, enough for a BB/9 rate above 3.0 – while not staggering enough to get one’s attention. This issue becomes compounded when viewed in conversation with his underlying stats.
Last season his K/9 rate dropped nearly 1.5 points, while his ground ball percentage only rose 2.0%. Therefore, he was heavily relying upon flyballs to get his outs, especially in contrast to the season prior. Also, his BABIP against dipped from over .300 to .271 and his HR/FB percentage miraculously improved by nearly 7%.
If he is continuing to rely on flyball outs, the same luck might not be there in 2020 as these stats can adjust to the norm. Or inversely, he could establish the new norm in 2020.
Fourth Starter: Zach Davies
Zach Davies can offer a variety of pitches, at different speeds, to the opposing batter in an attempt to keep him off balance. Mainly relying upon a sinker/two-seam fastball and change-up while interspersing a cutter. The change-up sits at approximately 80 mph, which provides a 7-9 mph difference from his cutter and fastball.
He was dealt to the San Diego Padres in the 2019 offseason along with Trent Grisham – who is slated to be the Padres’ predominant center fielder this season – while starter Eric Lauer and 2B prospect Luis Urias were sent to the Brewers.
This change in scenery will no doubt be of assistance to the newly-acquired starter, as his 2019 fly ball rate nearly equaled that of his ground ball rate. Petco Park will be able to contain some of the weaker home runs that Davies surrendered in the confines of Miller Park.
Historically he has kept his HR/FB percentage at a minuscule rate, typically remaining below 13%. The infield and outfield defense will also benefit Davies because of the overall range of the roster being one of its main advantages.
Overall, Davies will not be relied upon to completely shut other offenses down. Rather, if he can stay healthy, he can offer enough innings as a fourth starter to allow the bullpen and top three arms in the rotation to flourish.
Third Starter: Dinelson Lamet
Dinelson Lamet only pitcher 73 innings over 14 starts in 2019, having not pitched prior since 2017 due to Tommy John surgery in April of 2018. Having health on his side in 2020 will be paramount as he enters the season primed to display his worth, urged on by unbounded potential.
The hardest thrower of the San Diego Padres starting staff, Lamet has what one might describe as easy speed. The ball rolls out of his hand at an average velocity of 96 mph and it does not appear as if he is putting much effort behind it.
His stuff allows him to attack the strike zone vertically. When he is ahead in the count, the right-hander can elevate a high four-seamer to overpower the opposing batter or hurl his razor blade of a slider.
The slider, when executed properly, breaks with a sublime downward tilt away from right-handers. The combination of the slider and fastball is particularly effective because the pitches are delivered on the same plane until the movement sets in.
The only concerns for Lamet are the ability to consistently throw strikes and therefore to last deeper into games. With only 73 innings under his belt in 2020, he might also face innings limitations or fatigue upon the season’s final stages.
Second Starter: Garrett Richards
Following a 2018 elbow injury, Garret Richards was only capable of totaling three starts of 8 innings total in 2019. He stands to be the second starter for the 2020 San Diego Padres and his poise and effectiveness has begun to shine through at the start of his Spring Training campaign.
His slider is working with devastating effect, finishing off batters and compiling strikeouts. It possesses a distinctive downward tilt that was missing, in what equated to be a cameo, in 2019. This tilt allows the pitch the rapidly drop, after following the same plane as his four-seam fastball.
The fastball is his main weapon, while the slider serves as his out pitch, yet early signs indicate that Richards might more of a mixture of the two this season. Also, he has a curveball that is utilized mainly as a change of pace pitch.
Richards has had a tough go of it over the past four seasons, unable to provide a full complement of starts since the 2015 MLB season. If he remains healthy and can in any way replicate some portion of those seasons, he might very well find himself earning a hefty contract in the offseason.
First Starter: Chris Paddack
The San Diego Padres have placed an abundance of hope in the farm system of prospects that they have stockpiled and, on the pitching side, the greatest hope for them is Chris Paddack.
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Paddack is an impressive pitcher due to his unbending poise and his assertive style of pitching. Similar to Lamet and Richards, Paddack approaches the strike zone vertically – establishing the lower half and then attempting to finish off the batter with high heat. Or conversely, to raise the eye level of the batter and finish him off with a change-up or curveball in the lower half.
The fastball is not necessarily the fastest, yet the method by which the Padres’ ace delivers the pitch, allows the ball to seem sped up. He is assertive on the mound in that he attacks the strike zone, aggressively attempting to throw strikes.
While it is true that this practice should allow him to pitch deeper in each of his starts, it also creates the opportunity for more hits on weak contact. Paddack is particularly threatened by this because he does not feature very much variety.
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The change-up and curveball simply cannot match up to the excellency his fastball offers. This is not to say that he should adopt a new style of pitching, but rather slightly adapt. When behind in the count batters will attack anything near the strike zone, thus in 1-2 or 0-2 counts Paddack might be best served to utilize the waste pitch.
As his four-seamer jams opponents, inducing weak contact; change-ups and curveballs low in the zone could produce groundballs or even strikeouts.
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Paddack certainly has the make-up of an ace level pitcher. If he is able to hone his impressive capabilities and smooth out some of the kinks, his potential is boundless.