Phillies: Rotation’s repertoire analysis for 2020

Aside from their ace, three young Phillies starters must hone their craft from two above-average pitches out of four in their arsenal and develop the other two during their first 60 to 120 starts.

Four-pitch requirement:   

Normally, some Philadelphia Phillies fans envision success from rookie hurlers because of exceptions achieving phenomenal results. In fact, most moundsmen don’t have three dominant pitches and pinpoint control like Aaron Nola. No, superstars are a rare breed!

IN OTHER WORDS:    “Analyzing what you haven’t got as well as what you have is a necessary ingredient of a career.” – Orison Swett Marden

Until camp begins anew for two* weeks, some starters could pitch simulated games somewhere to maintain their arm strength. Plus they’ll have one or two starts in Clearwater to hopefully reach an 80 pitch count and establish 70 percent accuracy: 70 out of 100.  So, expect 5-6 innings tops in their first 2-3 outings. * could change to four weeks if delay continues.

A five-man staff has two types of hurlers. Basically, the first pitcher has a rotation spot, and his numbers are irrelevant: They experiment with a new pitch and/or hone their secondary offerings. For the red pinstripes, they include Nola, Zack Wheeler, Jake Arrieta and Zach Eflin.

The Fightins’ second group has three moundsmen competing for the fifth slot: Vince Velasquez, Nick Pivetta and southpaw Ranger Suarez. Here, the stats matter and will determine who slots behind Eflin. But this battle is far from over: It could come down to spring training’s final week.

In this competition, the favorite is obviously Velasquez. Entering camp, Pivetta had demotions to Triple-A and the bullpen in 2019, plus Velasquez had 10 more starts with a 4.96 ERA to Pivetta’s 5.74 ERA rotation-wise. But even though management stated it’s a two-man competition, Suarez could be a third wheel.

In today’s baseball with top-dollar contracts, organizations balance those expenditures with youngsters making at or near the MLB minimum. Ergo, pitchers advance more quickly and must continue their development on the job. Rule of thumb: They make an impact in or after their third year with a 30-start average per full season.

With a hand wave, the faithful can easily dismiss a player if stats are the only factor. But the team has invested time and money to develop him. To illustrate, Adam Haseley hit .266 as an injury-replacement rookie after only a handful of Triple-A contests. Yes, he’d be a fourth outfielder after four summers.

One through four:       

When the Phillies campaign begins, four of the five-man staff are locks, barring unforeseen events. Yes, Eflin will follow Arrieta, Wheeler and Nola. But circumstances beyond control could affect the 26-man roster depending on the timing. Question mark!

With above-average control of his four-pitch arsenal, Nola’s ERA will probably be somewhere between 2018’s 2.37 ERA and 2019’s 3.87 ERA for a 3.12 ERA. And he could benefit from a delayed Opening Day because two of his clunkers were in April.

Phillies rotational arsenal:

• Nola’s four-seam fastball: 1136 for 34.1 percent
  with a 93.4-mph average and a 96.8-mph high.
  Curve: 1173 for 35.2 percent.
  Changeup: 618 for 18.6 percent.
  Sinker: 403 for 12.1 percent.
• Wheeler’s four-seam fastball: 1864 for 59.1 percent
  with a 97-mph average and a 100.9-mph high.
  Slider: 630 for 20 percent.
  Curve: 313 for 9.9 percent.
  Changeup: 287 for 9.1 percent.
  Splitter: 61 for 1.9 percent.

Phillies rotational results toward 75-80 percent: 

• Nola, 26.5: 18 good, 8 so-so and 8 bad out of 34 starts for 76.5%
• Wheeler, 29.5: 19 good, 5 so-so and 7 bad out of 31 starts for 77.4%

In the first year with a new club, many players excel, and baseball men feel Wheeler is ready to reach the next plateau. Translation: Franchises were bidding heavily for his services, but the Phils are the closest to his wife’s native New Jersey. And his statistics were 2018’s 3.31 ERA and 2019’s 3.96 ERA for a 3.64 ERA midpoint.

According to national publications, Arrieta’s recent numbers are league average. Ergo, he’s a three-slot arm despite his injuries. But if he can stay healthy, he may have his best summer in Philly especially with an abbreviated season. Note: He left his last outing with a slightly stiff shoulder only as a precautionary measure.

Phillies rotational arsenal:

• Arrieta’s sinker: 1200 for 54.8 percent
  with a 92.8-mph average and a 96.4-mph high.
  Changeup: 401 for 18.3 percent.
  Curve: 293 for 13.4 percent.
  Slider: 266 for 12.1 percent.
  Four-seam fastball: 32 for 1.5 percent.
• Eflin’s four-seam fastball: 854 for 33.6 percent
  with a 94.2-mph average and a 96.7-mph high.
  Slider: 789 for 31 percent.
  Sinker: 572 for 22.5 percent.
  Changeup: 202 for 7.9 percent.
  Curve: 139 for 5.5 percent.

Phillies rotational results toward 75-80 percent: 

• Arrieta, 34: 13 good, 2 so-so and 9 bad out of 24 starts for 62.5%
• Eflin, almost 26: 16 good, 0 so-so and 12 bad out of 28 starts for 57.1%

A hurler has a guaranteed spot when he works on one pitch even if it gets hit. To illustrate, Eflin allowed three earned runs with one first-inning slider after another. So, this is the offering needing improvement, and spring training is the place for it.

Excluding his four-game debacle regarding a high four-seam fastball due to a rookie analytics-oriented coach, Eflin had 16 excellent performances and eight clunkers. Translation: if his slider wasn’t working, hitters crushed it and/or sat on his fastball. Apparently, the answer is an effective slider, not high smoke (intentional).

Decision time:

With Bryan Price, the Phillies new pitching coach, you can expect to see improvement in the entire staff because he works with each hurler individually. In fact, the rotation may be more of a strength than many locals realize.

Basically, the red pinstripes could produce a solid one-two punch followed by an improved Eflin and a healthy Arrieta putting up decent numbers. Plus Velasquez or Suarez could provide a reliable innings-eating five with a 4.20 ERA. So, the Phils may have enough pitching and defense to reduce the pressure on the offense.

Hector Neris –who is the Fightin’s best reliever– is the closer even though many fans will blame general manager Matt Klentak for failing to acquire his replacement despite limited options. That stated, Adam Morgan and Jose Alvarez are also returning.

Despite the suspension of spring training and the first two weeks of ’20, the good guys may have an advantage with Andrew McCutchen in the leadoff spot for the new Opening Day. Plus Victor Arano and Tommy Hunter could also benefit from the campaign’s delay.

While the faithful can look forward to an additional two weeks of camp in mid-April (?) followed by some serious May (or June) baseball, when will they know that time has arrived. Who will tell them and what will he say? Play ball!

The Numerical Bible:  

This Phillies review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

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Phillies rotational arsenal:

• Nola’s four-seam fastball: 1136 for 34.1 percent
  with a 93.4-mph average and a 96.8-mph high.
  Curve: 1173 for 35.2 percent.
  Changeup: 618 for 18.6 percent.
  Sinker: 403 for 12.1 percent.
• Wheeler’s four-seam fastball: 1864 for 59.1 percent
  with a 97-mph average and a 100.9-mph high.
  Slider: 630 for 20 percent.
  Curve: 313 for 9.9 percent.
  Changeup: 287 for 9.1 percent.
  Splitter: 61 for 1.9 percent.
• Arrieta’s sinker: 1200 for 54.8 percent
  with a 92.8-mph average and a 96.4-mph high.
  Changeup: 401 for 18.3 percent.
  Curve: 293 for 13.4 percent.
  Slider: 266 for 12.1 percent.
  Four-seam fastball: 32 for 1.5 percent.
• Eflin’s four-seam fastball: 854 for 33.6 percent
  with a 94.2-mph average and a 96.7-mph high.
  Slider: 789 for 31 percent.
  Sinker: 572 for 22.5 percent.
  Changeup: 202 for 7.9 percent.
  Curve: 139 for 5.5 percent.
• Velasquez’s four-seam fastball: 1321 for 62.4 percent
  with a 94.5-mph average and a 98.4-mph high.
  Slider: 420 for 19.8 percent.
  Curve: 263 for 12.4 percent.
  Sinker: 91 for 4.3 percent.
  Changeup: 23 for 1.1 percent.
• Pivetta’s four-seam fastball: 792 for 49.2 percent
  with a 94.9-mph average and a 98.3-mph high.
  Curve: 569 for 35.4 percent.
  Slider: 193 for 12 percent.
  Sinker: 33 for 2.1 percent.
  Changeup: 22 for 1.4 percent.
• Suarez’s four-seam fastball: 181 for 23.8 percent
  with a 93-mph average and a 95.4-mph high.
  Sinker: 220 for 28.9 percent.
  Changeup: 204 for 26.8 percent.
  Slider: 157 for 20.6 percent.

Phillies rotational results toward 75-80 percent: 

• Nola, 26.5: 18 good, 8 so-so and 8 bad out of 34 starts for 76.5%
• Wheeler, 29.5: 19 good, 5 so-so and 7 bad out of 31 starts for 77.4%
• Arrieta, 34: 13 good, 2 so-so and 9 bad out of 24 starts for 62.5%
• Velasquez, 27.5: 11 good, 4 so-so and 8 bad out of 23 starts for 65.2%
• Eflin, almost 26: 16 good, 0 so-so and 12 bad out of 28 starts for 57.1%
• Pivetta, 27: 2 good, 5 so-so and 6 bad out of 13 starts for 53.9%

If you have any questions or opinions regarding the Philadelphia Phillies, please open the comments section.