Delay’s impact on 2020’s Phillies
With more pluses than minuses, the Phillies could be at full strength for the new Opening Day or shortly thereafter, and shortcomings that alarmed many fans will probably not be factors in the National League East.
Abbreviated campaign:
China was secretive regarding early reports of COVID-19. And the events they set in motion are currently affecting the Philadelphia Phillies, their divisional foes and the entire major leagues. In fact, this shortened season could produce an uncertain outcome like a five-game playoff series. Coin flip, no?
IN OTHER WORDS: “Choice impacts virtually every element of our life.” – Mary Anne Radmacher
Finally, Opening Day was two weeks away with camp winding down. And, now, baseball could be a year away in some locals’ views, while others are hoping for an 81-game summer with a postseason. For me, though, there are questions of which fans will read articles for a baseball fix and those who won’t without on-field action.
If COVID-19 is seasonal, baseball could return in early June for four weeks of spring training, and the campaign could begin in early July. But the Great Depression, World War I and World War II could not do what COVID-19 is threatening. Ergo, no living fan has ever had a summer without baseball.
On the bright side, camp would require 3-4 weeks for pitchers to build up their arm strength. But experimenting with a new pitch or refining one to be above average probably won’t be an option. Additionally, regulars will get their at-bats, and reserves will draw the short straw.
The season will be all the contests they can squeeze in. Translation: playing for only three months will mean off-day adjustments and day-night doubleheaders. And most of the increased competition will be against divisional rivals.
However, organizations in the NL Central and NL West will not face the NL East franchises equally. And if the Fightins are lucky, they will miss certain teams and play against weaker opponents. So, ’20 could really be the luck of the draw.
Time could work to the red pinstripes’ advantage by allowing key players to heal and not miss many –if any– games. And even though some pitchers weren’t ready for April, they could play a bigger role for this 2020 squad than originally envisioned.
Starting six:
For the Phillies, Aaron Nola will benefit from missing April because he was 1-0 with a 6.66 ERA after firing six home innings in March against 2019’s Atlanta Braves: two hits, one run (earned) and five walks. Unfortunately, his canceled first start was at Miami’s enclosed stadium. And he bested the 2019 Marlins with a 2.08 ERA.
If Zach Eflin can work on his slider during this downtime, things will work in his favor. Or he will miss an important opportunity with camp interrupted to refine his third pitch. Last year, though, he had two dominant outings and one poor one out of every three starts: He needs more than an above-average sinker and four-seam fastball.
Jake Arrieta can probably be healthy –and therefore effective– for three months. In 2018, he had worked through a balky knee from June on, and the Fightins shut him down due to bone spurs last summer. If healthy, however, he’ll be a strong three-slot arm. And another club will sign him because of scarce pitching.
With many day-night doubleheaders, the Phils will probably have a six-man staff, and it could be a deciding wrinkle for divisional winners. Here, southpaw Ranger Suarez will likely be in the rotation to break up the right-heavy staff, and he’ll get an extended look due to today’s circumstances. Is opportunity knocking?
With limited decision-making time, Vince Velasquez will probably make the starting six, and Nick Pivetta will earn his way from the sixth frame to the back end of the pen. Based on ’19, Pivetta will be the odd man out with a truncated spring training, but Suarez and Velasquez must pitch decently to keep their rotation slot.
Delayed reactions:
While some Phillies are healing, J.T. Realmuto‘s contract negotiations are currently out of sight, not mind. Presently, talks are not ongoing between the red pinstripes and Realmuto’s agent, but each side is still discussing the extension among themselves. Translation: The Phils will cave more!
Tommy Hunter pitched decently in ’18 and his 5 1/3 innings in ’19. Basically, he’s a solid setup man who delivers acceptable performances in the 75-80 percent range expected by management. And he’ll be ready to pitch before May 1, plus he’ll be one late-game weapon the Fightins missed last season.
After Victor Arano had recorded a 2.73 ERA with three saves and 10 holds in 2018, he only worked 4 2/3 frames last year. Again, the red pinstripes will have another setup man they can count on. They expected him by mid-April, so he’ll be at full strength when competition resumes.
With many players returning home, updates on their health aren’t available. For instance, Seranthony Dominguez had a balky elbow after his only appearance. But nothing is forthcoming from general manager Matt Klentak on any issue. That stated, Joe Girardi reportedly liked Dominguez’s outing.
While the 2020 campaign is on hold, David Robertson continues his rehab and is hoping for a July return. But having him back on Aug. 1 could mean missing little or no time for the dominant fireman. And his addition to the back end of the bullpen would dramatically improve the good guys’ chances.
Questions:
For the Phillies, Andrew McCutchen atop the lineup was critical to their good start, and the rest of the batting order had more run-producing opportunities. Now, he probably won’t miss any time and will be 100 percent from game one. And when Rhys Hoskins‘ teammates are hitting, he’ll get his share.
With a schedule of 81 contests, Zack Wheeler, Nola, Arrieta and Eflin will pitch 54 games; and the other two starters will toe the rubber only 27 times. Plus the relief corps will have Hunter and Arano to join Neris, Alvarez and probably Pivetta. Ergo, Dominguez and Robertson are currently the wild cards.
Most organizations will benefit from the delay with returning stars healed during the time missed because of necessary precautions. Yes, Atlanta will have the former ace of the Phillies, and other divisional rivals will have healthier players as well.
While the New York Yankees will have many stars healed and available for July, which NL East franchise will receive the biggest boost to their roster? Will it be the Braves with Hamels, the New York Mets with Cespedes, or will the Phils have the most important piece returning, and who would that be? Robertson!
For more information about COVID-19, visit the CDC’s website or the website for your state’s Department of Health.
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