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MLB Games: Simulating opening weekend for the AL

By Bill Felber

CLEARWATER, FL - FEBRUARY 24: Anthony Santander #25 of the Baltimore Orioles rounds the bases during the sixth inning of a spring training game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Spectrum Field on February 24, 2020 in Clearwater, Florida. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
CLEARWATER, FL - FEBRUARY 24: Anthony Santander #25 of the Baltimore Orioles rounds the bases during the sixth inning of a spring training game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Spectrum Field on February 24, 2020 in Clearwater, Florida. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images) /
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Brandon Lowe’s four-RBI game helped Tampa Bay win a simulated series against Pittsburgh. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
Brandon Lowe’s four-RBI game helped Tampa Bay win a simulated series against Pittsburgh. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /

MLB games were played this opening weekend…but only on paper. Here’s how the eight AL home series simulations turned out.

If you’re as much of a baseball fan as I am, this is a sad day. It’s supposed to be the start of opening weekend, yet no games are being played…nor is there any expectation when MLB games might begin.

The uncertainty of the present circumstance can only be remedied one way … with a simulation.

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There are plenty of games on the market that will produce a reasonable facsimile of what might have taken place this weekend had those games been played.

This simulation uses one of those games which, out of a desire not to provide free advertising, shall remain unidentified.

For the vast majority of players, the simulation is based on the actual 2019 statistics generated by those players. In rare exceptions, modifications are required, and when that happens one of two avenues is taken.

For a handful of players whose 2019 experience was both abbreviated and sensational – think Sean Manaea and Gavin Lux – their 2020 projections are used to modify the 2019 data.

In a second and more difficult handful of cases where a player simply has no previous major league experience yet is expected to play a big part in his team’s 2020 season, projections are based on a fairly standard major league season. Those players include Louis Robert and Yoshitorro Tsutsugo

These projected outcomes follow the published MLB schedule. Are they accurate?

We’ll let you know that at such time as the actual Major League season gets underway.

In the meantime, root for your favorite simulated team.

The AL home series results follow. You can find the National League home series results in a companion article.

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