Phillies: Solving the Zach Eflin mystery for 2020
Eflin’s mastery of a third pitch is the main obstacle for the Phillies to have three front-of-the- rotation studs, and to date the towering right-hander is the top moundsman acquired during rebuilding.
Third pitch in progress:
For the Philadelphia Phillies faithful, Zach Eflin is either a five-slot arm or a potential hurler in the middle of the five-man staff. And the reason is 2019’s 4.13 ERA or his frequent brilliance. But when you unearth a rookie pitching coach’s belief to add a high fastball in season to improve the righty’s performance, you realize why.
IN OTHER WORDS: “The most important thing is to not stop questioning.” – Albert Einstein
To understand Eflin’s current situation, go back to the Fightins’ trade for him and his MLB baptism. Translation: He had competition. Yes, he was one of 10 arms the front office picked up by mostly moving their Glory Day stars and only a young flamethrower by general manager Matt Klentak.
After aging regulars decline, organizations prefer avoiding the dreaded restructuring if they can. But they get a boatload of unproven talent for players in the twilight of their exemplary careers. Realistically, franchises receive mostly prospects they hope one or two will pan out.
What did the red pinstripes expect from the best 10 hurlers they swapped for? Well, they hoped for one or two rotation pieces out of those 10 because other clubs don’t deal their top talent except for a Cole Hamels or a J.T. Realmuto.
Winning a trade depends only on the exchange. Basically, moving aging stars for prospects to rebuild is the totality of the transactions: It’s different. Plus the Phils wanted to pick up and develop at least one mid-rotation piece to eventually join Aaron Nola.
Of the 10 best hurlers, Zach Eflin, Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta are the top three. And only Eflin isn’t a long shot to successfully accomplish the Fightins’ goal of a three-slot starter. Rule of thumb: A player makes an impact in or after his third year (60-120 starts), and the tall righty has made 74.
While some fans have decided the fates of Velasquez as a reliever and Pivetta as a former Phil, Eflin draws mixed reviews from these critics. Some see a 4.13 ERA and conclude he’s a five-slot arm, while others noticed a number of solid outings last summer that have even bested Nola (3.74 ERA).
In the hunt:
While the Phillies acquired Zach Eflin and lefty Tom Windle, the Los Angeles Dodgers received Jimmy Rollins as a one-campaign stopgap. However, they included Eflin in the swap after picking him up from the San Diego Padres. J-Roll pays dividends, again?
In typical Rollins’ fashion, Windle was also last among the 10 moundsman who had any success above Single-A+ ball: Two balancing throw-ins didn’t. But Windle had a 4.26 ERA for his 42 Triple-A relief appearances last season, and a 4.26 ERA has basically been his performance as a starter or reliever at each level after Single-A.
While Windle has left the red pinstripes and joined the Boston Red Sox organization for ’20, Mark Appel had retired following two injury-plagued summers after finishing 2017 with a 5-4 mark and a 5.27 ERA for the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs. Yes, he was 2013’s number one pick overall in the draft by the Houston Astros.
Tom Eshelman was the fans’ answer to the Fightins’ starting staff in ’17: He went 10-3 with a 2.23 ERA. Therefore, armchair GMs felt Klentak should burn a 40-man spot, or he doesn’t know what he’s doing. As for Eshelman, he made four starts and six relief outings for 2019’s Baltimore Orioles: He went 1-2 with a 6.50 ERA.
Alec Asher will be with the Triple-A affiliate of the Minnesota Twins for 2020 after playing Atlantic League ball for 2019. In 2018 with the Milwaukee Brewers’ Double-A team, he was 6-4 with a 6.05 ERA for 16 starts and five relief appearances. But he went 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA in five starts for 2016’s Fightins.
For Marlon Byrd, the Cincinnati Reds traded Ben Lively to the Phils. And he went 4-7 with a 4.26 ERA in 15 starts for 2017’s red pinstripes. Last year, though, he was 6-2 with a 4.48 ERA in his 27 appearances (17 relief) for the Triple-A affiliates of the Kansas City Royals and Arizona Diamondbacks (still there).
Top five:
While Phillies pitching coach Bryan Price works again with Zach Eflin to hone his slider, fans will talk about right-hander Spencer Howard and third sacker Alec Bohm making the 26-man roster. But Klentak won’t easily burn a 40-man slot for either because he looks at more than just stats. Like, how will they handle adversity?
Jake Thompson showed promise, but he lacked average control (70 percent) and didn’t have a mid-90’s heater. In ’19, he made four starts with two relief chances for a 1.90 ERA and a 1-0 record for the Detroit Tigers’ Single-A+ club. The prior campaign, he had a 4.96 ERA with two Phils’ saves in nine relief opportunities.
Jerad Eickhoff signed as a non-roster invitee with the 2020 Padres and will probably try for a 26-man spot when activity resumes. But after he had logged an 11-14 mark with a 3.65 ERA for the 2016 Fightins, injuries plagued him. And he finished for Philly at 3-4 with one save and a 5.71 ERA over 12 appearances (two relief) in 2019.
Among the final three, Pivetta is hoping to improve his rotation chances with more changeups. The idea is the hitter thinks he’s getting the express, not the local. In ’19, he made 13 starts with 17 relief opportunities and went 4-6 with a 5.38 ERA, a save and a hold.
Velasquez recorded a 7-8 mark and a 4.91 ERA with two holds: 33 performances with 10 in relief. Basically, his record is deceptive because Gabe Kapler had a quick hook due to pressure to make the playoffs. But if Price is working with Eflin’s slider and Pivetta’s changeup, is the coach having Velasquez hone his slider or curveball?
The top five arms were promising, but only Eflin has earned a spot on the five-man staff. To excel, if you aren’t a flamethrower, you’ll need pinpoint control: 75 percent or more. But a fireballer can miss with two or three mid-90’s fastballs down the heart of the plate during a start; however, a finesse pitcher can’t.
Zach Eflin’s 2019:
Making the Phillies rotation, Zach Eflin has climbed a huge mountain to achieve MLB success, but the top is extremely slippery. And, unfortunately, many fans are vaguely aware of the hard work, dedication, skill and luck it takes. Hopefully, comparing the nine other candidates to Eflin will shed some light on it.
From April through June, Eflin went 7-7 with a 3.34 ERA for 97 innings. And the “two good starts out of three” pattern was totally consistent: He had two solid performances and a clunker in literally every three starts. Obviously, his coach wanted to up his pattern to three out of four: 75-80 percent is management’s expectation.
The rookie pitching coach had success with other moundsmen throwing high fastballs, but this changing-eye-level approach failed Eflin miserably: He went 0-4 with a 12.64 ERA. Landing in the pen, he had four opportunities and produced a 1.59 ERA for 5 2/3 innings before rejoining the five-man staff.
The righty finished the 162 with a 3-2 mark and a 3.20 ERA for 45 frames and solidified his rotation spot. Like clockwork, he again had two good for every poor outing. So, Price’s approach is improving his slider to complement his four-seam fastball and sinker to achieve three solid appearances to one bad day.
Of those 16 good performances, eight including two complete games were seven frames or more. Therefore, before you bemoan an occasional Eflin clunker in ’20, remember his other two or three outstanding efforts. Thanks, J-Roll!
The Numerical Bible:
This Phillies review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Stats from other organizations in parentheses.
Acquired Phillies:
- Zach Eflin, almost 26: 32 Gms. (4 relief), 163 1/3 Inn., a 4.13 ERA, 10-13, a 4.85 FIP, a 4.76 xFIP, a 4.86 SIERA, a 1.5 fWAR and a 1.35 WHIP.
- Vince Velasquez, 27.5: 33 Gms. (10 relief), 117 1/3 Inn., a 4.91 ERA, 7-8, 2 Holds, a 5.21 FIP, a 4.75 xFIP, a 4.36 SIERA, a 0.6 fWAR and a 1.39 WHIP.
- Nick Pivetta, 27: 30 Gms. (10 relief), 93 2/3 Inn., a 5.38 ERA, 4-6, 1 Save, 1 Hold, a 5.47 FIP, a 4.58 xFIP, a 4.73 SIERA, a 0.0 fWAR and a 1.52 WHIP.
- Jerad Eickhoff, 29.5: 12 Gms. (2 relief), 58 1/3 Inn., a 5.71 ERA, 3-4, 1 Save, a 6.51 FIP, a 5.15 xFIP, a 4.79 SIERA, a -0.4 fWAR and a 1.30 WHIP.
Jake Thompson, 26:
- 2019 A+: 6 Gms. (2 relief), 23 2/3 Inn., a 1.90 ERA, 1-0, a 3.48 FIP, a 3.38 xFIP and a 1.27 WHIP (Detroit Tigers).
- 2018 Phillies: 9 Gms., 16 1/3 Inn., a 4.96 ERA, 2 Saves, a 4.26 FIP, a 5.19 xFIP, a 5.14 SIERA, a 0.0 fWAR and a 1.53 WHIP.
Ben Lively, 28:
- 2019 AAA: 7 Gms., 30 1/3 Inn., a 5.04 ERA, 2-1, a 5.58 FIP, a 4.64 xFIP and a 1.55 WHIP (Arizona Diamondbacks).
- 2019 AAA: 17 Gms. (14 relief), 42 Inn., a 4.07 ERA, 2-1, a 5.58 FIP, a 5.75 xFIP and a 1.43 WHIP (Kansas City Royals).
- 2017 Phillies: 15 Gms., 88 2/3 Inn., a 4.26 ERA, 4-7, a 4.97 FIP, a 5.58 xFIP, a 5.27 SIERA, a 0.9 fWAR and a 1.29 WHIP.
Alec Asher, 28.5:
- 2019 AA: 21 Gms. (5 relief), 96 2/3 Inn., a 6.05 ERA, 6-4, a 5.62 FIP, a 6.33 xFIP and a 1.59 WHIP (Milwaukee Brewers).
- 2016 Phillies: 5 Gms., 27 2/3 Inn., a 2.28 ERA, 2-1, a 3.33 FIP, a 5.08 xFIP, a 4.95 SIERA, a 0.6 fWAR and a 0.94 WHIP.
- Tom Eshelman, 25.5: 10 Gms. (6 relief), 36 Inn., a 6.50 ERA, 1-2, a 7.33 FIP, a 5.92 xFIP, a 5.53 SIERA, a -0.4 fWAR and a 1.61 WHIP (Baltimore Orioles).
- Mark Appel, 28.5: 17 AAA Gms., 82 Inn., a 5.27 ERA, 5-4, a 5.42 FIP, a 5.24 xFIP and a 1.76 WHIP (2017).
- Tom Windle, 28: 42 AAA Gms., 50 2/3 Inn., a 4.26 ERA, 3 Holds, a 4.37 FIP, a 5.12 xFIP and a 1.46 WHIP (traded with Zach Eflin).
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