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MLB Games: Simulating opening weekend for the NL

By Bill Felber

PORT ST. LUCIE, FL - MARCH 08: Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets in action against the Houston Astros during a spring training baseball game at Clover Park on March 8, 2020 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. The Mets defeated the Astros 3-1. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
PORT ST. LUCIE, FL - MARCH 08: Pete Alonso #20 of the New York Mets in action against the Houston Astros during a spring training baseball game at Clover Park on March 8, 2020 in Port St. Lucie, Florida. The Mets defeated the Astros 3-1. (Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images)
(Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images) /

The New York Mets make the biggest first impression, sweeping three MLB games from the champs.

If you’re as much of a baseball fan as I am, this is a sad day. It’s supposed to be opening day, yet no MLB games are being played…nor is there any expectation when games might begin.

The uncertainty of the present circumstance can only be remedied one way … with a simulation.

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There are plenty of games on the market that will produce a reasonable facsimile of what might have taken place this weekend had the games been played.

This simulation uses one of those games which, out of a desire not to provide free advertising, shall remain unidentified. This installment reports on the results of the first weekend of simulated games hosted by National League teams.

For companion results of games hosted by American League teams, you can follow this link.

For the vast majority of players, the simulation is based on the actual 2019 statistics generated by those players. In rare exceptions, modifications are required, and when that happens one of two avenues is taken.

For a handful of players whose 2019 experience was both abbreviated and sensational – think Sean Manaea and Gavin Lux – their 2020 projections are used to modify the 2019 data.

In a second and more difficult handful of cases where a player simply has no previous major league experience yet is expected to play a big part in his team’s 2020 season, projections are based on a fairly standard major league season. Those players include Louis Robert and Yoshitorro Tsutsugo

How accurate are these simulated results? We won’t really know that until the actual Major League season gets underway.

In the meantime, root for your favorite simulated National League team.

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