Boston Red Sox: Team preview and prediction for 2020 season

BOSTON, MA - AUGUST 18: Rafael Devers #11 of the Boston Red Sox tosses his bat after hitting a two run home run to record his 100th and 101st RBI of the season during the seventh inning of a game against the Baltimore Orioles on August 18, 2019 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - AUGUST 18: Rafael Devers #11 of the Boston Red Sox tosses his bat after hitting a two run home run to record his 100th and 101st RBI of the season during the seventh inning of a game against the Baltimore Orioles on August 18, 2019 at Fenway Park in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)
1 of 3
Next

The 2018 champions are at a crossroads, and 2020 could make or break them. How will the Boston Red Sox rebound from a gutting offseason?

The Boston Red Sox blew it up this offseason after a less than stellar 2019 and are, in turn, marching forward in 2020 with a group that is not particularly suited for a 2020 postseason run. Not only were their hands tied when it came to the Mookie Betts trade, but the Red Sox were also on the back end of the Astros cheating scandal this offseason that resulted in their own manager Alex Cora being drug through the mud and ultimately fired for his role in the 2017 Houston Astros championship.

On top of all that, the Sox ushered in a new chain of command at the top of their organization with the firing of Dave Dombrowski before the losses of Cora and Betts even went down. The Red Sox have lost their captains, and their heart and soul is now playing in Los Angeles for the very team they beat in 2018 to win the World Series.

More from Call to the Pen

2020 doesn’t look too promising for the Sox, but the good news is they have an opportunity to start fresh, work in some of their younger guys, and clear some cap space for next season. Will the Boston Red Sox crash and burn in 2020, or will it just be another year like 2019 where they slightly under-perform?

Yes, the most glaring hole in this team is the absence of Mookie Betts, easily a top-five player in this league in his prime and the heart and soul of this Red Sox organization. But what is almost even more troubling is the pitching situation, particularly in the starting rotation.

David Price and Rick Porcello are gone and now Chris Sale is going to need Tommy John surgery with continued elbow problems that stifled his 2019 from game one up in Seattle where he gave up seven earned runs on six hits and three home runs. From there, it was just a constant battle for him to work his way back to peak form and regain the velocity and efficiency on his fastball. But unfortunately, it never really came.

Yes, Sale posted the second-highest strikeout per nine innings rate of his career (13.3), but he also recorded the worst ERA of his career by a mile (4.40), the worst ERA+ of his career (109), while also tying the second-most home runs he’s ever given up in a single season (24), which could’ve even been higher if he stayed up the rest of the year.

The bottom line is something was off about Sale in 2019 and that same energy has carried over into 2020 where we’re not sure if he’ll ever be the same pitcher. And judging by his recent contract extension he signed after the Sox won in 2018, that most certainly doesn’t bode well for the franchise who will be tied down to a pitcher that they’re not sure they’ll ever see again.

The loss of Sale for 2020 leaves the Boston Red Sox with a very short rotation that will need reinforcements from the minor leagues almost immediately.

(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
(Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

The Pitching Staff

Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi sit atop the Boston Red Sox rotation as of now, but neither has a particularly reliable health record. Rodriguez was great last year and turned out to be the Sox’s best pitcher, but at that, he still tallied an ERA just under four.

Maybe Rodriguez can improve on that if he can once again remain healthy and rack up 30+ starts like he did a year ago. Maybe he reverts back to the middle of the pack now that the limelight is on him as the Red Sox’s number one.

Eovaldi has number one stuff, but his health is a big question mark. That points to the bottom half of this rotation probably going to have to be picking up the slack. If E-Rod and Eovaldi can stay healthy, I think they can both have nice years, but who is going to fill the 3-5 spots in the rotation?

Martin Perez had a great camp and first half for Minnesota last year but tailed off as the season went on. Brian Johnson has found himself to be a swing guy these last several years for the Sox as a sixth starter type that can fill in and spot-start when guys get injured. But how will he fare if he’s locked into the rotation for the entirety of the season? Will his numbers even be good enough to keep him up?

The rest of the starts will have to go to younger guys and I would look at Ryan Weber to lead that group. After him, I think we could also see a fair amount of Tanner Houck, Mike Shawaryn, Kyle Hart, and maybe even Daniel McGrath making their share of starts for the club.

Another route the Sox can go is moving to Collin McHugh, who they just picked up when they DFA’d Hector Velazquez, as their fourth of fifth starter to get another veteran arm in there. McHugh has spent the majority of these past few seasons as a bullpen long relief option for the Astros, but this could be his shot to get back into a starting role.

None of these options appear to be too fantastic, but at the same time, the Boston Red Sox are in a spot right now where they’re going to have to get some quality innings out of some of their younger guys. So, 2020 will probably be an experimental year for them.

The biggest weakness of the Red Sox in 2019 was their bullpen, and even though they bring back pretty much the same crew of arms, I actually think this will be the strength of their pitching staff in 2020, though still not good enough to carry them to a decent record.

More. Boston Red Sox: Time to sell off some more pieces!. light

Reliability was a big issue for the Sox last season as the Red Sox bullpen lead the league in blown saves (31), but I think in 2020 we’re going to see Darwinzon Hernandez and Josh Taylor both step up as power lefties in their second full season as locked in commodities of this bullpen.

It’s also worth noting how good Brandon Workman was last year with a 10-1 record, 1.88 ERA, and 16 saves as the Sox’s best reliever. We saw an uptick in his fastball velocity from 91.6 in 2018 to 93.2 last season as well as a huge leap to a 13.06 K/9 rate all on the back of his higher usage of a power curveball off of the fastball.

Workman is currently one of the best relievers in baseball and I think we’ll be seeing another very good season out of him where he could potentially be moved to a playoff contender mid-season. Overall, I think the Sox’s bullpen will be better than last year though very overworked.

(Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)
(Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) /

The Red Sox

But the overall strength of this team will be on the offensive side. Though they go into 2020 without their best player and the league leader in runs scored the past two seasons, this is still an offense predicated on contact hitting and a strong top of the order. They switch out a sure thing in Betts for Alex Verdugo who has some injury concerns, but the top of the Boston Red Sox order is still one of the strongest in baseball even as they sit in peril.

More from Boston Red Sox

Xander Bogaerts was an under-the-radar MVP candidate last year and Rafael Devers turned in one of the best second halves in all of baseball after getting snubbed for the All-Star Game. On top of that, they still have JD Martinez locked down in the middle of the lineup and if Andrew Benintendi can cut down the strikeouts this season, one through four in the order will be virtually unstoppable.

On top of that, they still have Christian Vazquez coming off a career year with 23 long balls. They retain Mitch Moreland at the first base position. And they hold on to Jackie Bradley Jr. for the time being as one of the best center fielders in the game, not to mention bringing on Kevin Pillar to fill in for Verdugo in right field to open the season.

Dustin Pedroia is still a big question mark, but they brought in Jose Peraza who can play both infield and outfield, and Michael Chavis will be getting even more playing time this year with his exciting mix of power.

The question will be how they will fill in their bench. They have two catchers in Jonathan Lucroy and Kevin Plawecki to choose from to backup Vazquez, and they also have a mix of minor league guys that can see elevated roles with the departure of Mookie Betts still wafting through the air.

Look for Rusney Castillo to see a lot of playing time this year, especially in the beginning of the season with Alex Verdugo out. Look for Tzu-Wei Lin to get a lot of time as a utility gem with Pedroia highly questionable to play this year.

Related Story. Baltimore Orioles: preview and prediction for 2020 season. light

We may also be seeing a fair amount of Bobby Dalbec, Josh Ockimey, and Jonathan Arauz permeating the infield at various times throughout the season. This year’s Red Sox team will feature a strong lineup of veteran hitters as well as a good mix of some highly-touted prospects.

I don’t believe the Boston Red Sox will be in prime form this season, but they still have a bunch of good pieces to be happy about moving forward. Throughout the years, whenever the Red Sox are bad, they tend to be bottom of the barrel bad, borderline horrific. Very rarely do we see them be “okay” like they were last year.

That’s why I thought they’d finish this season 69-93 towards the bottom of the American League and fourth in the AL East though I’m wary of them potentially finishing dead last in the East. As it sits now, we still have no idea how many games will actually be played because of the ever-developing Coronavirus, but regardless of record, I still have the Sox finishing in fourth in the division.

Next. MLB: needs to televise Nippon Professional Baseball games. dark

Their pitching, which was a major issue for them last year, will once again come back to haunt them. And the Mookie Betts loss will deprive them of a big chunk of their regular offensive prowess.

Next