If, and when, the MLB season kicks off, the Atlanta Braves will have a tough decision to make at the hot corner. Let’s take a closer look at the options.
The hot corner is proving to be a well…. heated topic of conversation in Atlanta Braves land these days. Even though the team is yet to take the field for the 2020 season, questions remain as to who could possibly be the every day third baseman for the Braves.
Austin Riley and Johan Camargo both offer intriguing options, both offering outcomes that range from awful to all-star, and neither one seems to edge out the other as Spring Training was ground to a halt in response to the Coronavirus pandemic.
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Both players posted strong a spring training before it was halted, and Braves management has kept their cards hidden when it comes to what direction they may go. So let’s do the only thing we can do in this baseball-less April…. and speculate!
Austin Riley
According to NASA, Jupiter’s gravity is roughly two and a half times that of Earth, and yet only a fraction of the downward pull of Austin Riley’s last 38 games of the 2019 season. Observe:
- FIRST 43 GAMES:
- .280/.333/.596 triple slash
- 14 Home Runs
- 2.75 WPA (Wins Probability Added)
Then the gravitational pull brought this highly touted prospect in what can be described in it’s most generous terms as a “downward spiral”:
- NEXT 38 GAMES:
- .150/.203/.292 triple slash
- 2 Home Runs
- -1.92 WPA
It was ugly. The diagnosis was a strong inability to hit anything that broke, curved, sunk, or slid in pretty much any direction outside of the strike zone, which led to a pretty absurd strikeout total (108 in 80 games) and rendered him pretty much useless at the plate. The ailment, however, is a common one among young players, and should Riley correct this malady, he could prove to be a force at the plate. Should the mechanical adjustments that he made in the offseason take hold, he could be a solid addition to the bottom half of the Atlanta Braves lineup.
Johan Camargo
Atlanta Braves fans are already familiar with Johan Camargo, although he didn’t come with the fanfare or pedigree that Austin Riley did. Signed as a free agent out of Panama in 2010, Camargo profiled as a “glove-first” utility player that made decent contact with little pop. He climbed his way up the Minor League ladder and made the most of his first full season in the show.
- .272/.349/.457 triple slash
- +8 dRS in 114 games at third base
- 19 Home Runs in 134 games
He came back the next season blocked at his natural position by newly signed Josh Donaldson, so instead, took on a bench/utility role, where he ultimately struggled, posting a .663 OPS in 98 games played, and managing to cost the Braves defensively before a broken shin stopped his season cold. It’s hard to say if 2018 was an outlier season for Camargo, as his prospect profile doesn’t suggest that he is a guy who can hit for a lot of power, although he does profile as a stronger fielder than Austin Riley.
So Really, Who Will Start?
The answer could very well be both, since both still have minor league options, and it’s clear that regular at-bats are going to be needed for both players.
That being said, Austin Riley seems like the more likely choice here, given his pedigree and potential upside. Camargo is probably the safer bet, as his offensive outcomes are less extreme, but one has to think when looking at both players, he doesn’t have THAT much of an edge defensively over Riley, and the upside that the latter offers is just simply too tempting to pass up.
Look for Riley to start the season in the show, and Johan Camargo to either be wearing either Gwinett Green or another MLB uniform.