6 Phillies difference-makers for 2020
Opportunity, approach, mindset and health will mix with some rule adjustments to an abbreviated campaign and a distinctive postseason, plus Phillies general manager Matt Klentak and his contemporaries won’t be under their current roster freeze.
Earned luck:
Presently, the Philadelphia Phillies faithful can expect another two months without baseball, and preparatory training could resume on roughly June 1. Prediction: Games in empty parks will have sports-hungry spectators even for televised exhibition contests. Also, this unique opportunity will create a striking dynamic.
IN OTHER WORDS: “Obviously, raw talent is important, but the difference-maker between first and the rest of the pack is usually desire.” – Zig Ziglar
For ’20, the lords of baseball are working to present fanless games in mostly Cactus League stadiums for exhibition contests and in-season battles through July. But if they can achieve a second camp for June and a month’s worth of campaign games, they will without hesitation.
As for 2020’s variables, health will be more critical to an organization’s success because losing a key piece for six weeks will equal half of an abbreviated schedule. To illustrate, 81 contests with a six-man rotation to accommodate for doubleheaders would reduce 14 of Aaron Nola‘s starts to only seven. Kiss 2020 goodbye!
For David Robertson, the final two months before October would give the Fightins a solid closer. Granted, he wouldn’t be the best, but the red pinstripes probably wouldn’t need the top gun to strike 2020’s gold. And he would push Hector Neris into the eighth-inning setup role.
With good luck and minimal injuries, the Phils could have the opportunity of a baseball lifetime. Translation: There were no asterisks for the strike-abbreviated winners in 1981 and 1994. But ’20 could be the first truncated start to a season, and no one will probably complain about 81 games instead of none.
For some players, 2020 is their walk year, and they have the added incentive of a career-altering contract. So, a statistical accomplishment for even half a campaign will be easier because they will be fresh for the entire summer and playoffs.
As for MiLB call-ups, only one league would exist with top minor league talent and veterans who didn’t make a major league team due to the circumstances. And rookies on expanded rosters will have a real shot to stick in the majors because of the limited competition on each club.
Developing talent:
For the Phillies, Rhys Hoskins and Scott Kingery are now in their making-an-impact years, which occurs in or after a third season. Hoskins has played a third of his third campaign and wants to bounce back from 2019’s second half. Assume failure or expect a comeback?
Basically, an all-out effort is possible within a half-summer’s playing time. And Hoskins surely can redeem himself after his uncharacteristic performance despite a solid first half. Unfortunately, the faithful have little patience for subpar production even with 20 bombs and 59 RBIs before the All-Star break.
If you double Hoskins’ stats from the first half other than his .263 average, he would have hit 40 long balls with 118 RBIs. Yes, those numbers would be more like your expectations, no? To do that, though, would take 178 contests and 630 at-bats: doubled figures as well.
Kingery is a better example of a developing player because of his noticeable production increase. However, some locals had expected the .300 hitter from Double-A, while disappointed others had soured on him. But developing today includes making an impact in or after their third year, and he has two full 162s on the books.
Kingery, almost 26:
- 2018: 147 Gms., 484 PA, .226 Avg., a .267 OBP, 8 HR, 35 RBI, a .605 OPS, a 61 wRC+ and a -0.1 fWAR.
- 2019: 126 Gms., 500 PA, .258 Avg., a .315 OBP, 19 HR, 55 RBI, a .785 OPS, a 101 wRC+ and a 2.7 fWAR.
In baseball and many industries, most employees earn merit-based promotions. Initially, Kingery had lacked the qualifications to be the regular second baseman, but some then labeled him a utility player due to his statistics and usage. To be a starter, though, 2019’s production and anticipated growth were the factors.
If the MLB has an 81-game schedule, Kingery could hit .270 to .280 with 12-14 homers and 35-45 RBIs. For a complete 162, double those stats for 24-28 home runs and 70-90 RBIs. Basically, the second sacker will benefit from a regular spot, and he appears to be a third-year impact star.
Walk year:
For the Phillies faithful, J.T. Realmuto is their main concern, but the catcher indicated progress had occurred in the three-month period before his arbitration hearing. The estimates, though, of $100 million for five summers don’t take into consideration his stance on raising the bar for future receivers: Buster Posey money!
Is he worth it? Well, his first-half numbers were lower because his hitting took a back seat to learning the pitching staff, but his statistics after the mid-season vacation could be more in line with a whole 162. And the forecast for playing 145 contests below reflects a major production increase.
Realmuto, 29:
- 2019: 145 Gms., 25 HR and 83 RBIs.
- 2020: 145 Gms., 36 HR and 99 RBIs (projection based on second-half stats).
At $167 million for nine seasons, Posey money is $18.6 million per 162, but then he was two years younger than Realmuto. Initially, Klentak had likely offered $20 million each for five years before adding a summer. However, the GM will likely go with seven campaigns and two vesting options or six with three vesting options.
While Realmuto’s extension is a must after trading Sixto Sanchez and Jorge Alfaro, the backstop knows the execs must come closer to his numbers. Meanwhile, another walk-year candidate is Jake Arrieta, who many locals don’t want. That stated, Arrieta’s first 10-11 starts will work well with only 14 total outings.
First starts from Arrieta, 34:
- 2018: 11 Gms.,70 Inn., 28 ER, 5-4 with a 3.60 ERA (late start to spring training).
- 2019: 10 Gms., 58 1/3 Inn., 14 ER, 5-2 with a 2.16 ERA.
- Total: 21 Gms., 128 1/3 Inn., 52 ER, 10-6 with a 2.95 ERA.
In both 162s, June was Arrieta’s injury month with 2018’s balky knee and 2019’s bone spurs. Consequentially, his statistics ballooned from that point. But if he can stay healthy for three or four more starts, he’ll get through a shortened 2020 and pitch like a three-slot hurler.
Comparing the solid beginnings of Arrieta to Zach Eflin‘s two good performances out of every three, I realized why the Fightins consider Arrieta as the three and Eflin as the four behind Nola and Zack Wheeler. Unfortunately, some fans will carp about every poor appearance by Arrieta and ignore his solid outings.
First and last:
For the Phillies, Andrew McCutchen will reprise his leadoff role immediately. The red pinstripes, unhappily, never found a replacement for Cutch atop the lineup in ’19 or during spring training. Therefore. his health is critical to their chances of winning the division and going anywhere in 2020’s postseason.
McCutchen, 33.5:
- 2019: 59 Gms., 262 PA, a .256 Avg., a .378 OBP, 45 R, 10 HR and 29 RBI.
- Full 2020: 135 R, 30 HR and 78 RBI.
- Half 2020: 68 R, 15 HR and 39 RBI.
McCutchen suffered his injury after his first at-bat (a walk) on June 3. So, he played one third of 2019, and tripling his stats equals a full campaign halved for an 81-game schedule. Aside from those numbers, his pace was to plate 135 runs. Ergo, a difference-maker!
After his season-ending injury, Robertson could return in August for his walk year. But he’ll also reunite with Joe Girardi, who managed him in 2014 to 39 saves in 44 chances for 88.6 percent. In ’14, the New York Yankees finished second in the American League East with an 84-78 record.
Rivera closed for 2013’s Yanks with 44 saves out of 51 opportunities in his final 162 for 86.3 percent. Locally, some fans scoff at 90 percent for a setup man. But Girardi will have Robertson in the ninth, Neris in the eighth, and five setup men for the sixth and seventh frames not including Dominguez, Velasquez and/or Pivetta.
Saving 2020:
While ’20 is uncertain, the Phillies difference-makers are in three categories: impact-making farm products (Hoskins and Kingery), walk-year candidates (Realmuto, Arrieta and Robertson), and injury-plagued stars returning (McCutchen and Robertson). So, the Fightins could be near full strength on Aug. 1 or sooner.
Although the MLB may have 3-4 weeks of camp, it could have a month of the campaign without spectators as well. And the lords of baseball would likely have one small league for replacements with each organization supplying veterans and MiLB standouts ticketed for the high minors to cover for injuries or other issues.
For the Phils, third baseman Alec Bohm and right-hander Spencer Howard, their top prospects, would be among this group. And Klentak would probably have a handful of veteran relievers as well because of 2019’s injury-ravaged bullpen. Ergo, these possibilities are in the planning stages to salvage half of 2020.
To sum up, ’20 is a summer of extreme uncertainty from the number of contests, their locations, the months played, replacement players, and a different playoff arrangement. Plus half of 2020 may be without paying customers and mostly in Arizona’s training parks, but what one thing could benefit the Phillies? Opportunity!
Phillies: Striking karma gold in 2020 for 1981's pain. dark. Next
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