Philadelphia Phillies: Team preview and prediction for 2020 season
The Philadelphia Phillies have crashed an burned the past two seasons. Now they look to utilize a powerful roster and a new manager to turn things around
2019 wasn’t very kind to the Philadelphia Phillies as they finished well-below their set goal going into the season. They had a lot of noise going on within the clubhouse with guys not necessarily playing very hard for Gabe Kapler.
There was also everything that happened with Odubel Herrera as well as the disappointing underperformance of Bryce Harper who they signed to that gargantuan contract. 2019 was just a mess for the Phils, but 2020 might be a different story.
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I really like what this team did in the offseason. They got rid of a manager that appeared to not have much control over the clubhouse and they brought in a guy in Joe Girardi who’s made his bones on his ability to control the clubhouse. Plus, they loaded up on some key free agents and even peppered in a bunch of former Yankees like Didi Gregorius and Neil Walker who Girardi is very familiar with.
One thing that Girardi is very good at is managing a bullpen, which is something that this team has been lacking for the past few seasons. There is talent in the Philly bullpen, but there haven’t been many instances of it being nurtured enough to realize full potential.
With Girardi in there, I think we’re going to see guys like Hector Neris, Victor Arano, and Seranthony Dominguez get to that next level. And once David Robertson gets himself healthy and back to action, the pairing with Girardi will bring Robertson’s career back.
Philadelphia Phillies: 2020 Preview and Prediction
As far as the starting pitching is concerned, this might be an area where we could see the Phils struggle. At the top, we have two superb talents in Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, but how is the rest of the group going to fill-in? Zach Eflin is pretty good but can he take that next step? What about Vince Velasquez or Nick Pivetta? Neither guy has really been able to break through yet. And what of Jake Arrieta?
Arrieta has completely fallen off the map and is in danger of being dropped altogether from the active roster with his struggles he’s had with his command and his drop in velocity.
One guy I would look to step up is Spencer Howard, one of the Phillies’ top prospects. Howard has yet to play past Double-A ball in the Philadelphia Phillies organization, but in his three minor league seasons, he’s been nothing short of fantastic racking up a combined ERA of 3.28 and striking out 281 batters in 211.1 innings pitched.
The plan for the Phils was going to be to let Howard take some time in Triple-A this year and then bring him up later in the season to make a big impact. But now with the delayed season, we could actually see Howard on the Opening Day roster. Howard is a young guy to watch as an X-factor in this Philly rotation.
As for Nola and Wheeler, this is one of the best 1-2 combos in the game right now. Nola has been great for the past two seasons and almost won the CY Young in 2018.
Wheeler, on the other hand, is going to wind up being the number one starter in this rotation, and may even be a perennial CY Young contender with his buddy, Jacob deGrom, over in Queens. If you’ve been watching the Mets these past two seasons, you would know how much Wheeler has developed into a star pitcher in this league.
It’s very interesting because in these past two seasons, Wheeler has dropped his fastball usage from where it was two seasons ago from 61.8% in 2017 to 58.2% in 2018 and 59.0% in 2019 via FanGraphs. In turn, we’ve also seen the slider usage has also dropped somewhat from 20.2% in 2017 to 19.2% in 2018 and 20.0% in 2019 and his changeup usage has gone up about four percentage points while he has also developed a split-finger since 2018.
And by this adjustment Wheeler has made, along with the fact that he’s managed to stay relatively healthy, his overall velocity on all of his pitches has gone up from 2017 and his effectiveness has also skyrocketed.
Now that he’s going to be under the guidance of such a gifted manager who knows how to handle pitchers, I think we’re going to see him take an even bigger step forward and he could be a sleeper contender for CY Young this year.
Philadelphia Phillies: 2020 Preview and Prediction
Regarding the Philadelphia Phillies offense, we’re still waiting for these guys to breakthrough. They brought on Bryce Harper and JT Realmuto last year to beef up the lineup and Bryce was a big disappointment. We know what this group of hitters can do when they’re right.
Realmuto is a consistent .280 hitter and one of the better hitting catchers you can ask for in baseball. Harper has the crazy power with one of the best eyes in the game and he can also put up those MVP numbers.
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Rhys Hoskins is another power hitter in his own respect. And Jean Segura was a .300+ hitter three seasons in-a-row before last season.
If the Phillies want to get back in playoff contention, these guys are all going to need to step up and be the players we know they can be.
What’s really going to help is the extra support in the Phillies’ lineup. This is a very deep team right now that can go all kinds of different ways in filling out their active roster.
They have Andrew McCutchen who’s looking like he can get ready for a delayed Opening Day after he was nursing an injury in Spring Training that would’ve kept him off the original Opening Day roster. And if you remember how good Cutch was for the Phils last year in the leadoff role until he went down with his injury, it’ll be exciting to see him back to full health.
They have Scott Kingery who has come on as a super-utility player who can do damage in a leadoff role as well. They have Jay Bruce who brings a power bat from the left side of the plate. And they brought on Didi Gregorius to lock down the shortstop position and play under his old manager Joe Girardi. Didi under-performed a year ago, but a change in environment with a familiar face at the helm is going to help him bring his numbers back up.
After that, this team has a lot of utility guys vying for active roster spots like Ronald Torreyes, Josh Harrison, Phil Gosselin, Neil Walker, and Logan Forsythe, as well as a slew of outfielders like Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn, Nick Williams, Mikie Mahtook, Kyle Garlick, and Nick Martini.
The Phillies have a boatload of options in terms of guy to fill out their active roster, which isn’t exactly a bad place to be considering this has infamously been a team these past few seasons that has lacked such depth.
Is this a Phillies team that can get to the postseason?
I think it absolutely is. But, unfortunately, I just think they’ll be outgunned by a few other teams in the National League and their back-end starting rotation won’t quite be ready to take that next step. I have the Phillies finishing in fourth place in the NL East, but not as a bad team per se.
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Before the delayed opening, I had the Phils finishing 83-79, which signifies just how highly I think of the NL East with the Mets, Nats, and Braves all finishing along the same lines. The Philadelphia Phillies are going to take strides forward this season and Joe Girardi is going to turn this ship around in no time. I just happen to think they’ll have to wait until 2021.