Cincinnati Reds: Team preview and prediction for 2020 season

Cincinnati Reds: 2020 Preview and Prediction

As for the pitching, we saw this team clock in eighth for team ERA (4.18) last season only dropping a bit down the list in the last couple of months. For most of 2019, the Cincinnati Reds had one of the best starting rotations in baseball and even to this day, they have about as good a top-four rotation as you could want in baseball.

Luis Castillo is a stud in the making with one of the best changeups in all of baseball. He was a sure-fire CY Young candidate for most of the year until he and the rest of the team tailed off in the later months.

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Sonny Gray looks to have found his next home after the debacle that was his stint in New York. He pretty much ditched the cut fastball and worked primarily with a four-seam and sinker. What Sonny tends to do very well that doesn’t get very much attention is mixing his pitches.

This is a guy that consistently throws his four-seam, sinker, slider, and curveball all under 30% of the time (per good ol’ FanGraphs), so he’s a hard guy to get a read on as a batter. I’m glad he’s back on track and I’m excited to see what he does in 2020.

You have to throw Anthony DeSclafani in the mix as well because last year was the first time in his career he surpassed the number of innings he threw with strikeouts he recorded (167 Ks in 166.2 innings). He also has a 4.13 career ERA with a 36-37 career record, so he’s definitely a guy to keep an eye on as somebody who’s right at the cusp.

As for Trevor Bauer, look… he’s goofy, he runs his mouth, he’s extremely unorthodox, he plays with a huge chip on his shoulder. But when this guy is right, he’s nasty. He didn’t do so well when he came over from Cleveland last year, but he’s more than capable of turning things around with the talent he has. He just needs to focus on pitching and block out all the outside noise.

Looking at the Reds’ bullpen, I think Raisel Iglesias has himself a bounce-back season after losing 12 games in 2019. Iglesias has a great power sinker and throws deceptively hard. Maybe he needs to be moved to more of a setup role, but he’s still very good.

Michael Lorenzen is an exciting player to keep an eye on. He’s becoming the Reds’ best relief pitcher while also being a legit two-way player who can play some outfield.

Remember during Shohei Ohtani‘s rookie season, a lot of the experts pitched the idea of having him hit every day and close games rather than be a starter? I think we could see something very similar to that with Lorenzen if he can prove to be an everyday hitter.

As for the rest of the bullpen, the Reds’ two biggest acquisitions in the offseason were Pedro Strop and Nate Jones. Strop had some issues last season in Chicago and Jones has a potent injury history, but you can see what the Reds are doing in loading up on hard-throwing right-handers.

And finally, you have Robert Stephenson who was nothing short of excellent for this team last year coming out of the pen to the tune of a 3.76 ERA and 81 punch-outs in 64.2 innings. Along with Lorenzen, I would say Stephenson is a major player to keep an eye on in this Reds relief core that could break out and have a big year.

On paper, the Reds have a great roster with a ton of upside. But talent only gets you so far. You need a stable foundation and a positive culture, both of which I don’t believe the Reds have right now. I’m excited to see how they progress and if they can get their act together, but I don’t think 2020 will quite be their year in terms of sustaining a playoff run.

They’re very close to the Cubs and Brewers in their division, but to me, both of those clubs stand out ahead of them purely based on the culture of winning and stability they’ve paved for themselves over these past few seasons. So, I have the Reds finishing fourth in the NL Central (80-82 if it were a full season)- they won’t be a complete train-wreck by any means.

There’s a lot to really like about this Cincinnati Reds team, but there’s also a lot to be concerned about. Hopefully, they’ll take serious steps in the right direction this season.