Houston Astros: Justin Verlander will miss out on 300 career wins

Houston Astros pitcher Justin Verlander was a long shot to get to 300 career wins, now with the shutdown, he’s assured not to get there.

Houston Astros ace Justin Verlander entered this season 75 wins shy of the coveted 300 win plateau. With every game lost because of the coronavirus pandemic the more distance forms between him and reaching the plateau.

Two changes to the game of baseball have made the prospects of a 300 game-winner for a pitcher almost impossible. The five-man starting rotation and specialty relievers in the bullpen.

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In a five-man rotation a starting pitcher gets eight-ten fewer starts than in a four-man rotation, therefore ten fewer chances at getting wins. With a newfound focus on specialty relievers, setup men, high paid closers, and a mindset shift from “pitchers finished what they started” (have to protect the investment’s arm), starting pitchers don’t pitch as deep into games as they once did. Therefore fewer chances of getting wins.

When C.C. Sabathia decided to hang up his cleats, Verlander became the active leader in career wins. Even with playing this season, ZiPS Milestone Probabilities gave Verlander a 32% chance of making it to 300 career wins. With losing the entire 2020 season those percentages drop to 14.

At age 36 last season, Verlander had arguably the second-best pitching season in his career (behind the 24-5, 2.40 he put up in 2011) when he was 21-6 with a 2.58 earned run average. The man appears to be getting stronger as he gets older.

His current contract will take him through the 2021 season where he’ll be 38 entering his next deal. Aside from a surgical procedure done on his ailing groin at the conclusion of spring training, Verlander has remained healthy.

Depending on his walk year performance, he could still garner another two-year contract. When that is done, he’ll be forty and looking at a string of one-year deals if he continues. There are a lot of factors considered, and too many variables working against Verlander in this quest towards 300.

Reaching the 300 win milestone was going to be hard enough for Justin Verlander had their been a full 2020 season. It’s all but a foregone conclusion now.

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