MLB Dream Bracket: Who wins between the Yankees and the Red Sox?
The MLB Dream Bracket has reached the semi-finals in the American League and the New York Yankees are set to face the Boston Red Sox. Who wins?
With the novel coronavirus having shut down the sport since March 12, baseball fans have been starved for content. Fortunately, the MLB Dream Bracket has been providing us with the ultimate baseball fix: a 32-team bracket made up of each organization’s best players.
On the American League side, 16 teams have been widdled down to two, and the New York Yankees are set to face off against their rivals the Boston Red Sox.
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Now, these two franchises are perhaps the most storied in MLB history, both coming into existence within two years of each other. The Yankees, born into existence in 1903 as the New York Highlanders, have a lifetime .570 W-L%, 55 playoff appearances, 40 pennants, and 27 championships. While the Red Sox, first known as the Boston Americans, first took flight in 1901 and have a lifetime .519 W-L%, 24 playoff appearances, 14 pennants, and 9 championships.
Overall, it appears as though the Yankees have the advantage. Especially when given the fact that they have a better winning percentage, over 2x as many playoff appearances, almost 3x as many pennants, and exactly 3x as many championships.
In reality, both teams are closer than you’d think, and recent history would tell you that it’s the Red Sox who have the better team. In fact, since 2004, the season in which Boston slayed the “Curse of the Bambino,” the Red Sox have won 4 titles (2004, 2007, 2013, 2018) to the Yankees’ 1 (2009).
So today we’re going to settle the debate once and for all and provide a prediction for the MLB Dream Bracket semifinals matchup between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox.
To begin, let’s break down each team’s offense.
MLB Dream Bracket: Yankees vs Red Sox
The Offensive Advantage
For the tournament, MLB has designated 15 offensive players to each team, one for each position including DH and six bench players. As such, here is each team’s offensive roster:
New York Yankees: Yogi Berra, Lou Gehrig, Tony Lazzeri, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio, Babe Ruth, Reggie Jackson, Don Mattingly, Robinson Cano, Roger Maris, Graig Nettles, Paul O’Neill, Bill Dickey
Boston Red Sox: Carlton Fisk, Jimmie Foxx, Dustin Pedroia, Wade Boggs, Nomar Garciaparra, Ted Williams, Mookie Betts, Dwight Evans, David Ortiz, Carl Yastrzemski, Bobby Doerr, Jim Rice, Manny Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts, and Jason Varitek.
Believe it or not, traditionally, each team features some incredibly similar offensive numbers. In fact, in terms of Batting Average (AVG) and (OBP), the Yankees and the Red Sox have the exact same numbers – .298 AVG and .381 SLG lifetime.
Where each team differs, however, is in their power production. For example, the Yankees’ lifetime Slugging (SLG) is .513 to the Red Sox’s .503 SLG.
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Similarly, each team’s advanced stats are also separated within .10 points. The Yanks have a .395 lifetime wOBA while the Red Sox feature a .386 wOBA. And in terms of wRC+, the New York’s 138 wRC+ edges Boston’s by just 6 points.
Where things become daunting for Boston is in wins. When totaling each team’s WAR, Yankees players are worth 209.4 more wins than the Red Sox.
Given all this information, I think it’s safe to say that the offensive edge has to go to the New York Yankees.
MLB Dream Bracket: Yankees vs Red Sox
Who Has the Better Pitching Staff?
To round up each team’s 26-man roster, each team also features a pitching staff of 11 starters and relievers. With that, here is the pitching staff for each team:
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New York Yankees: Whitey Ford, Andy Pettitte, Ron Guidry, Red Ruffing, Lefty Gomez, Waite Hoyt, Mel Stottlemyre, Mariano Rivera, Dave Righetti, Goose Gossage, and Sparky Lyle.
Boston Red Sox: Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, Cy Young, Luis Tiant, Jon Lester, Babe Ruth, Lefty Grove, Jonathan Papelbon, Koji Uehara, Craig Kimbrel, and Dick Radatz.
Unlike the offense, when it comes to pitching, it’s not even close. The Red Sox far outperform the Yankees in every area, except in the area of closing.
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In fact, Boston’s pitching staff features a W-L% of .631 while the Yankees have a .592 W-L%. Even in ERA, the Red Sox (2.84 ERA) are superior to the Yankees (3.20 ERA).
What’s more, even when we look at advanced stats, Boston edges New York. For example, the Sox feature a 3.00 FIP while the Yanks sport a 3.43 FIP. Even in terms of WAR Boston wins to the tune of 608.9 fWAR to 455.1 fWAR, a difference of 153.8 wins.
Because of this, the Boston Red Sox edge out the Yankees in the area of pitching.
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In all, however, to make a determination, I ended up totaling up each team’s fWAR in pitching and hitting. As a result, the Yankees (1606.2 fWAR) will defeat the Red Sox (1550.6 fWAR) in the MLB Dream Bracket, but it will be close.