Phillies: X factors on and off 2020’s fields
While the Phillies faithful would take 81 contests in a hot minute, the lords of baseball are having dialogue with state governors and seeking a 100-game schedule: Doubleheader heaven for baseball-starved fan bases.
Viral time zone:
For the Philadelphia Phillies, their stars are most likely spending time with an altered offseason-like regimen, while most baseball questions have partial or no answers. Some involve rules, and others depend on variables affecting the on-field product before, during, and after an unknown number of games. Ergo, no precedent!
IN OTHER WORDS: “I don’t believe in statistics. There are too many factors that can’t be measured. You can’t measure a ballplayer’s heart.” – Red Auerbach
For now, the pandemic is accelerating in new places and declining in hot spots, while local and state governments are making critical decisions, medical and financial. Yes, some are using questionable logic and will be accountable if damage occurs.
While some cities and towns are opening partially or semi-completely, the virus may not reveal new cases for two weeks and terminal statistics for 28 days. Basically, the problems will be too late to correct when answers are available. Translation: The open states could be the real-life version of the fictional Amity Island (Jaws).
For fans, their beliefs range from cancelling the campaign to playing without spectators for all or part of ’20. But only a big drop-off of new infections could prove a seasonal element, and the opportunity for an 81-100 game summer as a realistic possibility. However, paying customers will remain an uncertainty.
If you went back to previous 162s, you’d find a different franchise was in first place other than the winner of the league or division if the season ended then. To illustrate, the 1964 Fightins would have been the National League champions, and Philadelphia would have experienced at least four World Series battles to remember.
For ’20, one X factor would be the roster size: would it be 29 or 30 slots? Logically, the players the red pinstripes would have would depend on a universal DH (designated hitter), the number of pitchers a club could carry, and a replacement league for fill-ins due to injury or illness.
Having a breakout year based on three months of play and less pressure with no spectators would offer a unique dynamic this campaign. And a revised schedule would benefit some organizations, not others, but there’d be divisional opportunities for healthy teams to capitalize on.
To play or not to play:
Due to the virus, the Phillies will likely play in Arizona because Florida and Texas may be opening up their communities too soon, plus the three-division plan could have a hot spot in one of 10 locations. But the baseball pooh-bahs won’t know until mid-May if those states have a spike in COVID-19 outbreaks. If so, hello, Phoenix.
With 10 state-of-the-art facilities for MiLB contests and Chase Field within a 50-mile radius, the MLB has reportedly stated they can handle three games per park daily: 33 total. So, 30 clubs equal 15 contests per day, and a replacement league with 20 teams can add another 10 to total 25 daily if Phoenix wins by default.
Other than a lack of interleague play, fans can expect doubleheaders, MiLB seven-frame matinees due to the heat, and other seven-frame contests because of twin bills. But even thought one element is heat, another is the lower humidity in southwestern states: hot but not humid.
The only organization with a home-field advantage would be the Arizona Diamondbacks in their retractable-roof stadium. So, 29 franchises would be competing in neutral territory, and their players would each rent an apartment. But their sequestration would be for around two months.
Although competition and victory usually bring paying customers to their feet, regulars would only hear the broadcasters describing the action, good or bad: no cheers, no boos. But the lack of an audience would affect some for the better with less pressure yet not others who thrive on the crowd’s roar.
Different outcomes:
While some Phillies fans in January had already decided the best the club could do was a third-place tie with the New York Mets, do they think any differently with an abbreviated schedule –the MLB goal is 100 games– at neutral sites for likely the first month or two after training camp? No, probably not!
After a truncated campaign, how would the red pinstripes fare? Well, if the past is any indication, the 1964 Phils were in first place with a 59-41 record and a 1.5-game lead. At that time, a 100-game schedule would have been a ticket to the Fall Classic.
The 1981 squad had a 34-21 mark on June 10 prior to the strike and was on a five-game winning streak. But if the season had ended then, those Phillies would have been in the NLCS with a shot to defend their crown instead of only finishing atop the division for the first half.
In 2001, the Fightins had a 47-34 record for first place with a two-game advantage on July 1. Yes, they were playing over their heads in Larry Bowa’s first year at the Phils’ helm, but that proved a franchise could finish atop the NL East with less than a full 162.
For the 2007 team-to-beat divisional champs, the opposite is true. They were in third place and out by five games with a 52-48 mark and would not have made their dramatic comeback and triumphant finish. That stated, it’s more likely an underdog would have better luck with an abbreviated campaign.
Strategic choices:
Because of the pandemic, the Phillies active roster would have 29-30 players, and one reason probably would be if a regular tests positive for COVID-19. Plus having a universal DH would be necessary for NL franchises this historic season. Yeah, one of a kind!
With a 26th roster slot as a wrinkle for ’20, this 162 was going to have 13 pitchers and 13 position players. And four additional spots could be another two of each. But when you look beyond the Fightins’ active 26, you won’t find any silver bullets.
Belief-wise, David Robertson could be ready in July. And, yeah, I saw him fire a heater in a film clip from mid-February, plus Joe Girardi told the reported first man in camp to slow down. Then, I understood the fireman’s optimism for second-half action.
Many fans would immediately be vocal about Alec Bohm, but he needs a year to work on his fielding. Though, he could DH and occasionally switch places with Jean Segura at the hot corner, but it would start the MLB clock for the newest Scott Boras client. Translation: This could be a coin flip for the front-office execs.
Spencer Howard might fill a bullpen spot if the red pinstripes believe he can handle one or two frames and work his way back to a setup role. Again, he would take a roster slot after only pitching 30 2/3 innings with a 2.35 ERA in his six Double-A starts. But before COVID-19 hit, they viewed him as a September call-up.
With a universal DH as a strong possibility, perhaps, a non-roster invitee could make the club. But general manager Matt Klentak already has some candidates who are on the 40-man roster already. So, this has the makings of an interesting role with many at-bats.
Ninth regular:
For the Phillies, Jay Bruce could claim the lion’s share of at-bats and occasionally switch with Andrew McCutchen in left field to give Cutch a rest especially for doubleheaders. Bruce launched 20 bombs in 239 ABs against right-handed hurlers in ’19, and he would add a third left-side bat with power to the order. Hitting seventh?
Another interesting situation would be center fielders Roman Quinn and Adam Haseley in the nine hole with McCutchen behind them when the lineup turns over. Granted, Quinn would have a better shot at being injury-free for three months, but twin bills could feature both on the grass for one contest and DH for the other.
If the Phils carry left-handed Williams, he could accumulate enough at-bats to provide offense: He may have value with regular playing time. Remember, he had batted .288 with 12 homers and 55 RBIs for 83 games in 2017 before Gabe Kapler became the manager.
Switch-hitter Knapp had averaged roughly .266 at every level and .257 as a rookie, but Kapler and his analytics devotees made changes. Was Knapp an innocent victim before J.T. Realmuto arrived? Well, Knapp could stay sharp with an additional 150 ABs and would be a harder out during starts.
Of the 30-something non-roster invitees, switch-hitting Walker batted .261 last summer for the Miami Marlins. He’s had nine decent campaigns out of the last 10, while Harrison has been declining over the last two seasons. So, Walker would probably get the nod unless Harrison shows more than he did earlier in camp.
Works in progress:
With a shortened 2020, Phillies Zach Eflin would probably duplicate his first three months of 2019: 16 games, 97 frames, 7-7 and a 3.34 ERA. Yes, those stats would elevate him to the third slot in the five-man staff. And he has done it!
Last year, Scott Kingery hit .292 with 11 home runs and 27 RBIs for the first half over 202 at-bats. With 303 ABs, though, he could hammer 17 long balls with 41 RBIs, and those numbers would not disappoint management at all. Plus playing one position would allow him more time to improve his hitting.
Because of numerous doubleheaders, lefty Ranger Suarez would probably be in the rotation, and he appears ready for a bigger role after getting outs in his last 162. In fact, he worked 48 2/3 innings during 37 opportunities and went 6-1 with a 3.14 ERA. Plus he impressed Girardi in camp, but was it enough for the five slot?
After only a handful of Triple-A contests, rookie Haseley averaged .266 and earned the starting center field job. But he could bat .280 with 10-12 bombs in a half season and tighten his grip on a regular spot. However, a healthy Quinn could earn some playing time at his expense.
While a surprise could come from someone else, Eflin, Kingery, Suarez and Haseley have the best shot at providing the stats for a breakout. But the Fightins could also have more than one new standout.
Man vs. nature:
Barring the success of remdesivir, a COVID-19 treatment drug, the Phillies season would depend on openings in Florida, Texas and other states having a spike in infections to affect their viability. But Germany with strong restrictions and a cautious return is experiencing case increases. So, the three-division concept is iffy: Phoenix?
With a 30-man roster, the red pinstripes would probably carry two more position players and two additional relievers. They currently have eight of nine bullpen pieces if Robertson and Dominguez are healthy but would need up to three more if they aren’t.
For two extra reserves, Grullon, a third catcher, would likely have a spot on the active 29-30 because a down receiver would be a major problem; and he’s on the 40-man roster. Additionally, Williams has a 40-man spot and would probably make the team because Klentak wouldn’t burn another slot if he can avoid it.
Doubleheaders would be commonplace because the lords of baseball want as many contests as possible and spectators when it’s safe. Ergo, they want to maximize revenue and to minimize cutting players’ income due to games played and attendance. Plus a six-man staff would include Suarez and Vince Velasquez, not Nick Pivetta.
While 81 games are one measurement, the MLB with renewed optimism wants 100 contests, and twin bills would be the only way to accomplish that. Plus the contests the Phillies faithful are missing now would result in a 100-game season for the second half of ’20 and include how many doubleheaders? Nineteen!
For more information about COVID-19, visit the CDC’s website or the website for your state’s Department of Health.
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