2020 Phillies: Free agency, catcher, front burner
Atop the Phillies shopping list and the faithful’s wish list, the best receiver in baseball is pursuing a contract the way he guns down a runner who seeks bragging rights of swiping second base off the backstop, not the pitcher.
Maze of uncertainty:
J.T. Realmuto and managing partner John S. Middleton of the Philadelphia Phillies were in serious negotiations because the backstop stated both sides had made progress in the previous three months. However, the transactions’ freeze ended those talks when the pandemic twirled a “snapdragon” curveball on Earth.
IN OTHER WORDS: “Life throws some curveballs at you, and you go where it takes you.” – Sophia Bush
Like many state governors over their jurisdictions, Major League Baseball’s plans are to open a three-week camp before an early July Opening Day. And proceeding, cautiously, is what fans should do before expecting this to be a given and –if it happens– produce six definitive victors. One in each division.
Transactions on ice will thaw, and negotiations will resume between Middleton and Realmuto’s agent. Remember, he wants Buster Posey money, and the front burner will come to a slow boil. So, don’t expect either side to move quickly because the virus has created uncertainty and is affecting all new contracts.
To start, franchises will have lower AAVs (average annual value) in 2021 but will also have free agents who may depart. Some are like Realmuto and others are like Jake Arrieta. Ergo, each organization will replace the Arrietas in their rotation and/or regulars like Didi Gregorius in their batting order.
Free agency is also facing uncertainty due to clubs’ lost revenue, and the light at the tunnel’s end may be a bullet train. So, Realmuto and other free agents might settle for less and/or re-up with their current team. But the All-Star catcher won’t make a hasty decision, nor will Middleton.
Among the organizations feared by the locals to sign Realmuto, the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels are other franchises who should weather this storm. But do they need a receiver, have other more pressing needs, or face spending limits?
Wrinkle-wise, the MLB is considering an 80-game schedule where the Phils would only play 20 contests each against four divisional rivals: all interdivisional games. But could the Washington Nationals, Atlanta Braves or New York Mets have interest in Realmuto after ’20?
Competition:
Fans including those for the Phillies usually worry needlessly about losing their Realmutos to a wealthy franchise, while those organizations may have other needs to fill. To illustrate, some Yankees faithful feared the Fightins would sign C.C. Sabathia as a fifth ace despite an obvious fact. They barely inked Cliff Lee.
For ’21, the Yanks are at $135 million AAV and will need three starters. But they could re-up two currently at $34.7 million AAV, and they could continue four arb deals now at $14.8 million AAV for $184.5 million AAV before expected increases. Yes, it’s too soon to know, but all teams will have raises and other holes to plug after ’20.
Even though the Dodgers have $117 million AAV for 2021 already, they’re currently paying $43 million AAV for Mookie Betts and Justin Turner plus $19.7 million for Bellinger, Bryant and Buehler. However, Betts alone would considerably raise the total of $179.7 million AAV before expected increases.
$210 million competitive-balance threshold for 2021 ($20 million for Realmuto):
(All dollar amounts in this article are 2020’s numbers with no projections for 2021.)
- 2020 Yankees: $261.4 million AAV with -$76.2 million AAV for 3 SPs, 2B, OF and 11 arb-eligible players at -$24.7 million AAV with $13.5 million for Judge and Sanchez plus more for Torres and Andujar.
- 2021: $135.3 million AAV and replacing Paxton, Tanaka, Happ, LeMahieu and Gardner.
- 2020 Dodgers: $232.7 million AAV with -$74.7 million AAV for 2 OFs, INF, 2 RPs and 8 arb-eligible players at -$25.4 million AAV with $19.7 million for Bellinger, Seager and Buehler ($.6 million for 2019.)
2021: $117 million AAV and replacing Betts, Pederson, Turner, Hernandez, Baez and Treinen. - 2020 Cubs: $214.1 million AAV with -$50 million AAV for 3 SPs and 12 arb-eligible players at -$49.2 million AAV with $40.1 million for Bryant, Baez, Schwarber and Contreras.
2021: $93 million AAV and replacing Lester, Quintana and Chatwood. - 2020 Red Sox: $195.9 million AAV with -$28.3 million AAV for SP, CL, 1B, 2 OFs and 13 arb-eligible players at -$26.4 million AAV with $9 million for Rodriguez and Devers.
2021: $138 million AAV and replacing Perez, Workman, Moreland, Bradley and Pillar. - 2020 Angels: $192 million AAV with -$27.5 million AAV for SP, SS, C, INF and 13 arb-eligible players at -$26.4 million AAV with $3.9 million for Robles.
2021: $133.5 million AAV and replacing Teheran, Simmons and 2 reserves. - 2020 Phillies: $203.9 million AAV with -$65.5 million AAV for SP, SS, 2 RPs, LF and 8 arb-eligible players at -$11.1 million AAV.
2021: $118.8 million AAV and replacing Arrieta, Gregorius, Robertson, Alvarez and Bruce. - Free agents not included in the team’s total AAV for 2021.
Beginning with $93 million AAV for ’21, the penalty-adverse Cubs will have three open rotation slots presently costing $50 million AAV and four regulars who are already at $40.1 million. Ergo, that alone will raise their tally to $183.1 million AAV before expected increases.
Like the Cubbies, the Red Sox prefer only minimal penalties, and they currently are at $138 million AAV for 2021. But they need $10 million AAV to match a starter’s and closer’s current pay and $9 million for same regarding Rafael Devers and an arb-eligible starter. So, they’d be at $157 million AAV before expected increases.
The Angels –who need a decent five-man staff– will be at $133.5 million AAV for ’21 with $17.3 million AAV of present salary for a starter and a shortstop. Also, their arb-eligible closer is now at $3.9 million for a total of $154.7 million AAV before expected increases.
Division rivals:
For the ’20 Phillies, the NL East could be their only competition this summer, and 20 games against each could elevate a hot club and eliminate a struggling team. And, if so, there’d be a lot riding on each contest and series, plus I’d bet my last dollar this season would have your full attention. The Phillies year?
Although the Mets are selling the franchise, they must field a competitive product to attract buyers. For 2021, they’ll be at $87 million AAV but replacing two starters and a receiver now at $28 million AAV and $24 million AAV for five arb players (Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil at $1.2 million now) for a total of $139 million AAV before expected increases.
The Braves will start ’21 at $67.6 million AAV with a $157 million AAV semi-ceiling. Currently, Cole Hamels and a center fielder are at $36 million AAV, while two arb-eligible starters —Mike Soroka‘s at $.7 million– and a shortstop are at $10.1 million AAV for a $113.7 million AAV before expected increases.
$210 million competitive-balance threshold for 2021 ($20 million for Realmuto):
(All dollar amounts in this article are 2020’s numbers with no projections for 2021.)
- 2020 Mets: $201.8 million AAV with -$65.5 million AAV for 3 SPs, RP, 2 OFs, INF and 12 arb-eligible players at -$37 million AAV with $18.9 million for Syndergaard, Conforto, Alonso and McNeil.
2021: $87 million AAV and replacing Stroman, Porcello, Wacha, Wilson, Cespedes, Marisnick and Lowrie. - 2020 Braves: $156.8 million AAV with -$65.5 million AAV for SP, 2 RPs, 2 OFs, C and 11 arb-eligible players at -$20.5 million AAV with $10.2 million for Foltynewicz, Swanson and Soroka.
2021: $67.6 million AAV and replacing Hamels, Melancon, Greene, Ozuna, Markakis and Flowers. - 2020 Nationals: $196.5 million AAV with -$16.5 million AAV for CL, C, INF, !B and 7 arb-eligible players at -$16.7 million AAV with $8.2 million for Turner and Soto.
2021: $129.3 million AAV and replacing Doolittle, Suzuki, Cabrera and Zimmerman. - 2020 Phillies: $203.9 million AAV with -$65.5 million AAV for SP, SS, 2 RPs, LF and 8 arb-eligible players at -$11.1 million AAV.
2021: $118.8 million AAV and replacing Arrieta, Gregorius, Robertson, Alvarez and Bruce. - Free agents not included in the team’s total AAV for 2021.
For the Nationals, they’ll begin ’21 at $129.3 million AAV and replace the current $11.5 million AAV of their closer and a catcher. Plus the arb figure now of $8.2 million is for Trea Turner and Juan Soto for a $149 million AAV before expected increases including eight open spots to fill.
The MLB wheels could be in motion by mid-May for three weeks to ramp up for an 80-game schedule beginning in early July. If so, the Phils will play six series against their four divisional foes: four, three and three contests each in both home and away parks. But the pandemic could switch a home series to an away or neutral site.
If a star has a health problem like asthma, or an immediate family member does, that player may skip this abbreviated campaign. Plus a player who tests positive before a game might be on the IL (injured list) for a month. Moreover, each organization could have 30 active players and 50 more in a replacement league of sorts.
Bottom line:
The Phillies will open 2021 at $118.8 million AAV but will need a starter and two relievers. Basically, that tally includes David Robertson‘s club option of $12 million, and Jose Alvarez is presently at $3 million, while four pre-arb players are now at $10.9 million for $132.7 million AAV before expected increases.
$210 million competitive-balance threshold for 2021:
(All dollar amounts in this article are 2020’s numbers with no projections for 2021.)
- 2020 Phillies: $203.9 million AAV with -$65.5 million AAV for SP, SS, 2 RPs, LF and 8 arb-eligible players at -$11.1 million AAV.
2021: $118.8 million AAV and replacing Arrieta, Gregorius, Robertson, Alvarez and Bruce. - Free agents not included in the team’s total AAV for 2021.
Realmuto wants Buster Posey money, and it equals seven summers for roughly $130 million after adjusting for the age differential. However, $20 million per 162 could increase the total to $140 million with two vesting options for productivity. But Realmuto’s deadline is season’s end.
Contract comparisons:
- Mauer, 28: $184 million, 8 yrs., $23 million AAV (2011-18).
- Posey, 27: $167 million, 9 yrs., $18.56 million AAV (2013-21).
- Molina, 34: $60 million, 3 yrs., $20 million AAV (2018-20).
- Realmuto, 29: 7 years to match Posey and Mauer agewise.
While the Yankees and Angels will spend on pitching, the Dodgers will offer top dollar for Betts. So, the Cubs, Red Sox, Mets, Braves and Nationals could compete for Realmuto. But the pandemic’s end is nowhere in sight, and this will affect the bidding and the acceptance of most proposals.
On the red pinstripes’ side of the negotiations, Middleton and the competition are probably willing to offer well in excess of $100 million for five campaigns. But Middleton will re-up Realmuto before he becomes a free agent: The Fightins can even go as high as $25 million AAV for six years if that’s what it takes.
To sum up, the X factor in re-signing Realmuto is the virus, and the Show’s new normal will determine the revenue available for free agency and contract extensions. But I only need two words to describe the situation necessary for the agreement’s completion, and what are they? Cost certainty!
$210 million competitive-balance threshold for 2021:
(All dollar amounts in this article are 2020’s numbers with no projections for 2021.)
- 2020 Mets: $201.8 million AAV with -$65.5 million AAV for 3 SPs, RP, 2 OFs, INF and 12 arb-eligible players at -$37 million AAV with $18.9 million for Syndergaard, Conforto, Alonso and McNeil.
2021: $87 million AAV and replacing Stroman, Porcello, Wacha, Wilson, Cespedes, Marisnick and Lowrie. - 2020 Braves: $156.8 million AAV with -$65.5 million AAV for SP, 2 RPs, 2 OFs, C and 11 arb-eligible players at -$20.5 million AAV with $10.2 million for Foltynewicz, Swanson and Soroka.
2021: $67.6 million AAV and replacing Hamels, Melancon, Greene, Ozuna, Markakis and Flowers. - 2020 Nationals: $196.5 million AAV with -$16.5 million AAV for CL, C, INF, !B and 7 arb-eligible players at -$16.7 million AAV with $8.2 million for Turner and Soto.
2021: $129.3 million AAV and replacing Doolittle, Suzuki, Cabrera and Zimmerman. - 2020 Phillies: $203.9 million AAV with -$65.5 million AAV for SP, SS, 2 RPs, LF and 8 arb-eligible players at -$11.1 million AAV.
2021: $118.8 million AAV and replacing Arrieta, Gregorius, Robertson, Alvarez and Bruce. - Free agents not included in the team’s total AAV for 2021.
$210 million competitive-balance threshold for 2021:
(All dollar amounts in this article are 2020’s numbers with no projections for 2021.)
- 2020 Yankees: $261.4 million AAV with -$76.2 million AAV for 3 SPs, 2B, OF and 11 arb-eligible players at -$24.7 million AAV with $13.5 million for Judge and Sanchez plus more for Torres and Andujar.
- 2021: $135.3 million AAV and replacing Paxton, Tanaka, Happ, LeMahieu and Gardner.
- 2020 Dodgers: $232.7 million AAV with -$74.7 million AAV for 2 OFs, INF, 2 RPs and 8 arb-eligible players at -$25.4 million AAV with $19.7 million for Bellinger, Seager and Buehler ($.6 million for 2019.)
2021: $117 million AAV and replacing Betts, Pederson, Turner, Hernandez, Baez and Treinen. - 2020 Cubs: $214.1 million AAV with -$50 million AAV for 3 SPs and 12 arb-eligible players at -$49.2 million AAV with $40.1 million for Bryant, Baez, Schwarber and Contreras.
2021: $93 million AAV and replacing Lester, Quintana and Chatwood. - 2020 Red Sox: $195.9 million AAV with -$28.3 million AAV for SP, CL, 1B, 2 OFs and 13 arb-eligible players at -$26.4 million AAV with $9 million for Rodriguez and Devers.
2021: $138 million AAV and replacing Perez, Workman, Moreland, Bradley and Pillar. - 2020 Angels: $192 million AAV with -$27.5 million AAV for SP, SS, C, INF and 13 arb-eligible players at -$26.4 million AAV with $3.9 million for Robles.
2021: $133.5 million AAV and replacing Teheran, Simmons and 2 reserves. - 2020 Phillies: $203.9 million AAV with -$65.5 million AAV for SP, SS, 2 RPs, LF and 8 arb-eligible players at -$11.1 million AAV.
2021: $118.8 million AAV and replacing Arrieta, Gregorius, Robertson, Alvarez and Bruce. - Free agents not included in the team’s total AAV for 2021.
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