If and when baseball returns in 2020, MLB teams will be aligned in very different divisions. Which newly constructed division is the strongest?
Major League Baseball is set to bring forth its plan for a return-to-play this coming Tuesday (per ESPN), and one very important aspect of its proposal will pertain to travel. Although, as we await the League’s grand plan to bring the sport back, there has already been discussions about how travel could work in a potential 2020 season, especially as it relates to divisions.
Last month CBS Sports’ R.J. Anderson reported on a discussed proposal by MLB to realign the league’s divisions geographically, resulting in three 10-team divisions (West, Central, East) constructed with the idea of limiting cross-country travel as much as possible.
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Granted, some MLB teams and cities will be very mildly impacted by the aforementioned divisional layout, but all-in-all it appears the set-up does a decent job of containing teams within its region (California and Texas teams in the West division, midwest teams in the Central division, and of course east coast teams in the East Division).
You could argue over a few (like why the Braves and Pirates aren’t flip-flopped), but for the most part, the new divisions should work as intended, if the name of the game is to limit exposure as much as possible.
But what about the competition level within these three divisions? Which MLB teams are benefiting from this new layout and which are being put in a more difficult position?
Well, on Friday Dan Szymborski at FanGraphs provided some insight with his ZiPS projections for our new regional setup, and the results were mostly unsurprising.
*UPDATE: initially the general assumption was that MLB would attempt for a 100-game season in 2020, however, details that emerged Saturday evening report that the league’s forthcoming plan will consist of an 80-game season. Regardless, Szymborski’s ZiPS projections are based on a 100-game slate.
The Central features what appears to potentially be the most competitive, given there doesn’t seem to be anyone team that could stand above the rest. It also features the most teams projected to win at least 50 games, with seven (Braves, Twins, Indians, Brewers, Cubs, Reds, and Cardinals). The West includes the team projected by ZiPS to win the most games in 2020, in the LA Dodgers (61-39 record), though it’s hard to say which is the better division when held up with the East, considering both groups feature dangerous contenders (West: Astros and A’s, East: Nationals and Rays).
If I had to crown a best-division, from top to bottom, it would most likely be the West, given the East also includes the three most poorly positioned MLB teams (Pirates, Marlins, and Orioles). But you could perhaps make a case for any of the three divisions.
The ZiPS projections do a wonderful job of providing us all with an understanding of each division’s competitiveness, but I’d like to go a step further and preview the divisions by its strengths and weaknesses they possess. Maybe the West has better starting pitching, or perhaps the Central the better offense; whatever the case may be. We’ll find out in this series… starting with the West division.