MLB’s proposal to start the season in July faces problems beyond working out the finances with the MLBPA. Political and medical issues also loom.
The MLB owners’ proposal to the Players Union to start the 2020 season around July 1 will almost certainly lift the hopes and spirits of all baseball fans.
But fans should be careful not to let their hopes get too far out front of reality. With respect to this proposal, as with many things pertaining to the COVID-19 virus, potential demons may yet have a say.
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The owners’ proposal lays out the bones of a season. It includes the following points:
- A season of approximately 80 games.
- Games played regionally in leagues combining the East, Central, and West divisions.
- Roster expansion.
- Expanded playoffs.
- Use of the designated hitter in all games.
Given the unique circumstances, the Players Union is not likely to raise serious objections to any of those aspects of the proposal. But it is almost certain to object to another aspect of the proposal, a 50-50 split of all revenues generated during the season.
When games were initially postponed in March, the two sides agreed that if approximately half a season was played, the players’ salaries would be pro-rated. The Union is almost certain to demand that owners stand by their previously made commitment.
But beyond coming to an agreement with the Major League Baseball Players Association on terms governing both the financial and living arrangements. Owners and players jointly face other problems. Political and health considerations will also have a lot of say in whether any pitches are thrown in anger this season.
And neither the owners nor the players can negotiate those issues away.
Beyond the labor issues, the most significant problem is likely to be logistical. The 30 Major League Baseball teams play in 17 different U.S. states as well as the District of Columbia and Toronto, Canada. That makes them susceptible to the medical and political judgments of as many jurisdictions, each with a unique situation and a unique level of sensitivity.
Even without the presence of fans, the playing of a Major League game requires that between 50 and 100 individuals be in relatively close proximity – and sometimes within immediate contact – with one another. Probably every jurisdiction hosting an MLB franchise currently has rules in place prohibiting gatherings of such size.
It is certainly possible that those rules may be liberalized – or even done away with – in the weeks before the proposal calls for teams to begin a training period. But that is by no means certain. And the decision is outside the power of league officials to control.
A second potential tripwire is the likelihood that as states ease restrictions on general movement, COVID 19 cases tick upward. If that happens, one entirely plausible response is a re-imposition of restrictions of gatherings, likely on a regional basis.
There was originally discussion about playing games at a handful of sites – an idea that would have minimized the potential for disruption from outside political elements. But the players rejected that idea, not wanting to be isolated in what would have amounted to internment camps for the duration of play.
As presently constructed, the owners’ proposal appears to be founded on the assumption that games will be played in all 19 jurisdictions. It is not clear whether the game has a Plausible Plan B in the event that some jurisdictions conclude in June or early July that it is unsafe to permit the games to be played.
The same problem looms if games begin as hoped in early July, and then have to be stopped in one or two cities due to a localized COVID flare-up.
MLB owners and the union have a lot of experience negotiating through tough financial issues. To this point, however, both sides are novices in dealing with political concerns, especially when those concerns involve 19 disparate states, districts and provinces.
So while it is a good sign that the game is at least developing a plan to play, it is far from a sure thing that the plan will ever be implemented.