MLB Free Agents: 2021 free agency outlook, NL East

The return of the 2020 season seems probable. Although, of the players impacted by a potentially lost season, 2021’s MLB free agents have the most to lose.

The 2019 Winter Meetings — an event that feels like it happened years ago — featured three of MLB’s ten largest free-agent contracts (per total value) all-time. All in a matter of days.

First, it was Stephen Strasburg going back to the Washington Nationals on a 7-year, $245 million pact; second, it was Gerrit Cole to the New York Yankees for 9 years and $324 (the largest deal for a pitcher and second-largest deal in total value all-time); and finally, Anthony Rendon, who went out west to the Los Angeles Angels on the exact same deal as Strasburg.

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After 2-3 years of uninspiring deals and long-drawn-out negotiations, last offseason’s hot stove finally featured some excitement. However, little did we know that in a few month’s time everything would come to a stand-still.

Which brings us to the present. MLB and MLBPA are now in the midst of crucial discussions with the hope of bringing baseball back by early July (however far apart the two sides are when it comes to finances) — a return that will undoubtedly benefit everyone involved.

Veterans want to continue playing while their body still allows it, players in their prime know their time to make big money is winding down, and prospects just want to keep impressing as they continue pushing for their chance. Everyone has their reasons, but baseball’s comeback is certainly a shared interest among the entire league; although, perhaps more so for the ones looking to earn a new big league deal after the 2020 campaign.

It’s no secret that next winter’s MLB free agents are in a tight spot, especially if there’s no baseball this year. A topic that has been analyzed and part of baseball for years, the walk-year is maybe the most significant season of a player’s career, except this time it has been severely shortened (or even ruined completely).

Instead of a full-162 to really show their worth, 2021 free-agents will instead be forced to settle for a potential 80-game season; a sample-size that will undoubtedly be looked at differently than other seasons (even if everyone’s fully aware of the unique circumstances).

And it’s not just the slashing of available games to impress this season, there’s a very strong possibility that MLB teams become much more conservative in the next several free-agent classes, perhaps scarred from the ramifications of a three-month suspension this year. The COVID-19 pandemic will no doubt have long-lasting effects, both spending-wise and perhaps even in terms of approach on the open market. To put bluntly, the class of 2021 got shafted.

So what better time than now to look at next winter’s pool of players?

Yes, these types of write-ups are commonly done after the season has been underway, as current stats and storylines usually help feed the discussion when it comes to each player’s case on the upcoming FA market, but there are already some rather peculiar circumstances that a few soon-to-be MLB free agents find themselves in (like how the absence of a season for three months has already essentially killed a few players’ FA stock).

We’ll look at the entire 2021 class, though I’ll cover the pool of players one division at a time. Today we’ll start with the NL East.

MLB Free Agents: 2021 free agency outlook (NL East)

Miami Marlins

Even though the product on the big league field has continued to fall short, Miami has achieved quite a bit over the last couple of seasons, especially in improving its farm system. However, the outlook for the 2020 season actually looked much more competitive for the Fish.

The Marlins made several additions to its lineup, giving one-year deals to proven veterans that could provide the team with much-needed results, though unfortunately, that means they’ll soon be gone.

The losses will hurt, but of the four current Marlins set to hit the market in 2021, only one would be considered a full-time regular for a contending team. Team-wise, this doesn’t look so bad for the division’s last-place team, and with only $18.5 million on the books for 2021’s payroll, Miami could go for a star next winter.

2021 MLB Free Agents

• Jonathan Villar, 3B
• Francisco Cervelli, C
• Matt Joyce, OF
• Brad Boxberger, RP

That’s only $12.7 million worth of player salaries coming off the books after the 2020 season, though that’s what you get when your total payroll doesn’t even hit $60 million. Thirty-one-year-old Corey Dickerson thus far will be the Marlins’ highest-paid player in 2021, earning a whopping $8 million to play left field.

Villar was Miami’s big pick-up this past offseason, as the team signed the 29-year-old to a one-year, $8.2 million deal to man the hot corner after the Baltimore Orioles decided his 4-WAR season in 2019 wasn’t worth the cost (it very much was, given on the open market he would be valued roughly four times that).

This is the worst loss of the bunch for the Marlins, and perhaps an even worse situation for Villar, considering he had a shot at repeating his breakout season from last year. Regardless, though, the third baseman just turned 29 earlier this month and has a track record of success (he posted a 3-WAR season with the Brewers in 2016), meaning there should be a good bit of interest in his services come winter.

Cervelli and Joyce are most likely in the same boat career-wise, as the Marlins brought the two veterans in on one-year deals to fill back-up roles for the 2020 season, giving Cervelli $2 million to provide rest for Jorge Alfaro behind the plate and Joyce $1.5 million to occasionally pinch-hit as well as play the outfield. I expect both to be employed under the same sort of terms in 2021, especially after they showed flashes of above-average play in 2019. Cervelli will be in his age-35 season next year and Joyce will turn 36 this August.

Unfortunately, Boxberger may be at the end of the line. The 31-year-old righty has already been left off the 2020 bullpen depth chart for the Marlins, and his 2019 season didn’t leave much to admire (5.40 ERA / 0 WAR). In fact, of Boxberger’s eight seasons in the majors so far, half of those years have concluded with him being worth below replacement-level. His last season above zero WAR came in 2017 with the Rays (0.3 WAR), when he finished with a 3.38 ERA and 12.27 K/9 in 29.1 innings pitched.

MLB Free Agents: 2021 free agency outlook (NL East)

Washington Nationals

Last year’s champs are set up rather well for the future, as next winter’s turnover should be manageable. The Nationals will have five players entering free agency after the 2020 season, altogether totaling just $14.925 million in total money off next year’s payroll; that’s perhaps a good thing, considering the tab is already up to over $141 million for the 2021 season, thanks to Strasburg’s $35 million salary, Max Scherzer‘s $28.689 million and Patrick Corbin‘s $23.333 million.

2021 MLB Free Agents

• Michael Taylor, OF
• Sean Doolittle, RP
• Kurt Suzuki, C
• Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B
• Ryan Zimmerman, 1B

After losing his arbitration hearing back in January, Taylor and the Nationals agreed to a $3.3 million deal for the 2020 season — his seventh with the Nationals. Now as a more of a fourth outfielder, the 29-year-old Taylor hasn’t always lived up to the high expectations offensively, but he has been a solid defender throughout his time in D.C., averaging nearly 4 Def WAR (3.84) since 2015 (his first full season with the Nats).

Former Roberto Clemente Award nominee (2016) and perhaps MLB’s no. 1 “good guy”, the 33-year-old Doolittle enters the final year of his 5-year, $10.5 million contract signed back in 2015 with the Oakland Athletics. The lefty is set to earn $6.5 million in 2020 and this season was no doubt supposed to be a meaningful one in terms of earning a potential extension, given his 2019 performance was his worst in three seasons (including a career-high 4.05 ERA). Despite his well-documented concerns regarding the COVID-19 virus on Twitter (which is yet another reason you should be following him), count Doolittle as a player that really needs this season to happen.

Given that Nationals’ manager Dave Martinez plans to start Suzuki when both Max Scherzer and Anibal Sanchez take the mound in 2020, it’s hard to write off the aging catcher. Also now entering his age-36 season (he’ll turn 37 in October) and set to earn $5 million, Suzuki is coming off back-to-back-to-back resurgent campaigns with the Braves and Nationals, sporting a combined 113 wRC+ since 2017. The former second-round pick (2004) has put together a solid 12-year big league career, and he may just last a few more as a catcher that can swing the bat.

In early January Washington re-signed Cabrera for the 2020 season, featuring a $2.5 million salary with $500,000 in potential incentives. The veteran infielder caught fire while with the World Series champs, playing the final 38 games of 2019 in D.C. and hitting a healthy .323 with 16 extra-base hits (including 10 home runs). Cabrera, now 34, practically had the third base job locked down before Spring Training was shut down in March, but he’ll most likely have to start all over in the exact same situation when (if) he lands another job next year. Fortunately, he’s a player with several gloves in the infield.

Zimmerman may have been the last Nationals regular to get any action during the most recent Spring Training, but that doesn’t mean he won’t play a part in the team’s rotation at first base in 2020. Zimmerman, Eric Thames, and Howie Kendrick are all expected to contribute at first this year, as all have over 100 games of experience at the position, not to mention the first two of those three make up quite the platoon duo. Set to turn 36-years-old this fall, Zimmerman will once again play on a one-year deal (valued at $2 million), though it very well could be his last.

MLB Free Agents: 2021 free agency outlook (NL East)

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have been busy on the free-agent market over the last several seasons, although its 102-win 2011 season still seems like it was decades ago. Since that NLDS loss to the St. Louis Cardinals eight years ago, it has been .500 ball mixed with a rebuild… mixed with more .500 ball recently. Locking up star outfielder Bryce Harper (the largest free-agent contract all-time, in terms of total value), and acquiring the likes of JT Realmuto, Andruw McCutchen, Jean Segura and Zack Wheeler should most definitely provide a chance at contention again, but the Phillies will have to get creative if they intend to maintain their long-running record of staying under the payroll luxury tax threshold. With only roughly $4.5 million left until hitting the magic tax threshold this season, Philadelphia will be pleased to see the over $30 million worth of player salaries fall off the books after the end of the year.

2021 MLB Free Agents

• J.T. Realmuto, C
• Jay Bruce, OF
• Didi Gregorius, SS
• Jose Alvarez, RP
• Francisco Liriano, RP
• Tommy Hunter, RP

The Phillies’ 330 million dollar man (Bryce Harper of course) has already been voicing his opinion regarding the need for GM Matt Klentak to pull the trigger on Realmuto, who hit .275, slugged 25 home runs and threw out a major league-best 47% of would-be base stealer in 2019 — good enough for 5.7 WAR and a 14th-place finish in the NL MVP running. Given that there’s currently a transaction (or roster) freeze within MLB, an official extension just isn’t possible right now. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Realmuto (29-years-old) gets locked up as soon as the freeze is lifted. The guys at The Good Phight expect baseball’s best all-around catcher to land a 5-year deal in the $100-125 million range.

Set to back up Rhys Hoskins at first base in 2020, Bruce enters the third season of his three-year, $39 million deal signed back with the New York Mets. Unfortunately, the 33-year-old appears to be in his final few years as a big leaguer, as his numbers have fallen off quite sharply since his days with the Cincinnati Reds. Bruce still has some pop, but his lack of defense, rising strikeout-rate, and declining contact will may make for a long winter in 2021.

Gregorius may be feeling a bit of regret right about now, as instead of entering the 2020 free-agent market as a top-10 shortstop, he chose to take a one-year, $14 million deal with the Phillies — a decision that may cost him some money next winter if the current season doesn’t get going soon. However, the former Yankee was coming off one of the worst seasons of his career (0.9 WAR), so no one could blame the now-30-year-old for pushing his big payday back one season (especially given that he has essentially a 3.5-4.0 WAR player in the four seasons prior).

After making 67 appearances and posting a 3.36 ERA in 2019, the Phillies will once again go with Alvarez as the team’s set-up specialist in front of closer Hector Neris. The two sides agreed to a one-year, $2.95 million deal back in January, and the 31-year-old lefty was perfect through four Spring Training appearances before the shutdown. Since 2015 — his first full season in the majors — Alvarez has been an above-average major league reliever, sporting 8.08 K/9, 2.75 BB/9 and an ERA that matches last season’s mark (3.36). He should have no trouble on the market next offseason.

Liriano was already on a minor league deal for the 2020 season, so the odds were already stacked against the 36-year-old this year — his 15th big league season. Although, talk regarding 20-man taxi squads this year should come as great news for the veteran lefty, as he’ll most likely remain an option for the Phillies… this season.

Hunter’s 2019 season was ruined due to surgery on a torn flexor tendon, but he still managed an $850,000 deal for the 2020 season when the Phillies re-signed him back in February. Hunter will turn 34 in July, so the end is most likely near, but he has still been an effective big-league reliever so far in his 30s. Not counting his 2019 campaign, the 6-foot-3 righty sports a 3.22 ERA in 156.2 innings since 2016.

MLB Free Agents: 2021 free agency outlook (NL East)

New York Mets

If not for restructuring outfielder Yoenis Cespedes’ 2020 salary, the Mets would’ve easily led the division in terms of total money to come off the books next year, but the revision agreed upon back in December puts $23.5 million back into the team’s pile for this season, which was a good thing considering New York’s payroll was approaching $200 million. Fortunately, the Mets are one of the lesser cash-strapped teams next year, as they only have $85.750 million committed thus far to 2021.

2021 MLB Free Agents

• Yoenis Cespedes, OF
• Jed Lowrie, 2B
• Marcus Stroman, SP
• Justin Wilson, RP
• Rick Porcello, SP
• Jake Marisnick, OF
• Michael Wacha, RP

It’s not all bad for Cespedes, even though a canceled 2020 season would’ve been catastrophic for the 34-year-old outfielder, at least financially. There’s probably no chance Cespedes can hit the 650 plate appearance threshold needed to push his 2020 salary up to $20 million, but a full season this year (however long it is) will go a long way towards his reputation as an oft-injured player. He hasn’t played 100 games since 2016.

Perhaps one of the craziest cases last season, Jed Lowrie only managed eight plate appearances in 2019 — after posting a 5-WAR season with the Athletics in 2018 — as he dealt with injury on top of injury ever since last year’s Spring Training. With no activity during this season’s spring camp, and he still reportedly dealing with knee troubles, it’s hard to determine the 36-year-olds fate going forward. He’s set to earn $10 million in 2020 — the final year of his 2-year, $20 million contract.

The Mets got Stroman at last season’s trade deadline (in exchange for two pitching prospects) and he was solid for New York in his final 11 starts of the year (3.77 ERA), but this season was supposed to be when the former Blue Jay helped lead the Mets to the postseason. Whether or not the 2020 campaign is 80 games or 60, Stroman should do well on the open market, though the Mets may feel a bit more pressure to extend the right-hander.

Wilson, Porcello, and Wacha are all contributing pitchers set to hit the market next year. Wilson — signed before last season — is expected to be part of a strong group of relievers in 2020, coming off a 2019 season in which he posted a 2.54 ERA in 39 innings. Porcello and Wacha were picked up this past December on one-year deals. The former is expected to help pick up the slack in the starting rotation now that ace Noah Syndergaard is lost for the year (Tommy John surgery), and the latter has a chance to now join the starting staff as well. According to Rising Apple, it’s Porcello who’s most likely to be extended of the three, though Wacha has a chance to make his case as well.

Rounding out the Mets’ 2021 MLB free agents, Marisnick will provide New York’s outfield with depth at a price of $3.3125 million. Unless he can show massive improvements with the bat in 2020 (he owns a career 79 wRC+), the 29-year-old will most likely never be able to command double-digit salaries going forward, however, his superb defense will keep him relevant for years to come.

MLB Free Agents: 2021 free agency outlook (NL East)

Atlanta Braves

Lovers of the one-year deal, the Braves came out swinging this past offseason, fortifying its bullpen to the tune of $50+ million and an overall 2020 payroll north of $150 million (both team records in terms of spending). However, this is still a team run by Liberty Media, choosing to pass on free-agent third baseman Josh Donaldson, and instead opting to bring in a couple of veterans on one-year deals. With the NL East’s most players entering free agency next winter — totaling nearly $70 million in salaries off the books (also most in the division) — the Braves are sitting pretty for the 2021 hot stove and should be able to extend all of their candidates (Freddie Freeman, Mike Soroka, Max Fried… etc). Thus far, Atlanta has just $70.5 million tied up for next season.

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2021 MLB Free Agents

• Marcell Ozuna, OF
• Shane Greene, RP
• Cole Hamels, SP
• Tyler Flowers, C
• Nick Markakis, OF
• Adeiny Hechavarria, SS
• Felix Hernandez, SP
• Mark Melancon, RP

Ozuna, Hamels, and Hernandez were all brought in this past offseason, with the first two on matching one-year, $18 million deals, and King Felix on a minor league pact ($1 million if he makes the team). For Braves fans, it’s rather disappointing that neither of those three was given much time in Atlanta, especially considering Ozuna and Hamels were expected to play such important roles (Ozuna the team’s cleanup hitter and Hamels as the nos. 3 or 4 starter in the rotation). The situations perhaps differ for all three: Ozuna, 29-years-old, is in need of a big season to prop up his upcoming free agency, while Hamels (36-years-old) and Hernandez (34-years-old) are just trying to stay relevant (though more so for the latter of those two). It will be interesting to see what the future holds for all three.

Greene and Melancon were acquired by the Braves at the 2019 trade deadline, as part of what ended up being the team’s saving grace at the time (reliever Chris Martin was also acquired from the Texas Rangers). Both are set to hit the open market next winter, though Greene has the benefit of being four years younger and most likely much cheaper than the 35-year-old Melancon. I expect both relievers to find jobs rather quickly in 2021.

This will almost certainly be Flowers and Markakis final hurrah in Atlanta, as both were brought back on one-year, $4 million deals for the 2020 season. The addition of Travis d’Arnaud this past winter gives the Braves more offense at catcher for the next couple of seasons and adding Ozuna combined with the organization’s upcoming star prospects essentially pushes Markakis out of the outfield. Both players are in their mid-30s, though they each still have skills (Flowers his framing and Markakis his contact) that make me believe they’ll hook up with a rebuilder in 2021.

Lastly, Hechavarria is also on his way out of Atlanta after the 2020 season, although, after hitting .328 with four home runs in 24 games down the stretch for the Braves last season, not to mention incredible defense at shortstop… he will certainly be missed. The 31-year-old from Cuba will earn $1 million this season and should be able to take his infield utility skills with anywhere in need of some depth.