MLB Free Agents: 2021 free agency outlook, AL East

MLB Free Agents: 2021 free agency outlook (AL East)

Tampa Bay Rays

That wasn’t a typo in the previous slide, no, the Rays — currently operating on a cheap 2020 payroll just under $90.5 million — have no MLB free agents to speak of for the next offseason (though, starting pitcher Charlie Morton is part of a group of four heading to the market in 2022). Even better than the team’s minuscule payroll for the current season is that the Rays also only have roughly $48 million committed to next year’s payroll, which for a normal-operating team would maybe suggest more spending in the near future… but likely not for the Rays.

The recently slashed 2020 MLB Draft (down to just five rounds) perhaps hurts Tampa Bay more than any other team in the majors, given the Rays annually depend on the amateur draft for cheap talent. And though fan attendance has never really been a revenue that Tampa Bay has depended on, being able to add players on the cheap has been the organization’s calling card for years now.

However, zero departing players next winter will certainly help offset the losses for the Rays. According to FanGraphs’ Dan Szymborski’s recent analysis, Tampa Bay will benefit the next offseason from a very small loss in 2020 WAR (that’s ZiPS projected WAR of course). According to Szymborski’s projections, the Rays stand to lose just 0.9 WAR from 2020-21 — third-fewest in the majors.

Many have claimed that 2020 is Tampa Bay’s final chance to win its first AL East title since 2010, but there’s a case to be made that perhaps 2021 is that year. They certainly have room on the payroll. The question is will they spend it.

MLB Free Agents: 2021 free agency outlook (AL East)

Baltimore Orioles

The ramifications that stem from a shortened draft go for the Orioles just as they do for the Rays, except for Baltimore the inability to bring in more young talent hurts them in a far different way. The Orioles were never going to be contenders in 2020, nor in 2021, but there’s real value in picking at the top of a full draft, and this year the AL East’s cellar-dwellers won’t have that luxury.

As far as payroll, Baltimore currently sits at $83.2 million for this season, with first baseman Chris Davis ($23 million) and pitcher Alex Cobb ($14.250 million) accounting for over 50% of that, though for 2021 those two are currently the only ones guaranteed on the big league payroll (shortstop Jose Iglesias has a club option for ’21) as the team’s overall tab falls to just $58.250 million. Like the Rays earlier, the Orioles are also expected to lose very little 2020 WAR next offseason (0.7), but unlike them, Baltimore isn’t projected to be worth much WAR anyways. A shortened 2020 season should be a great time to get a good look at last year’s top draft pick, catcher Adley Rutschman.

2021 MLB Free Agents

• SP, Wade LeBlanc

Originally signed to a minor league deal by the Orioles back in late January, LeBlanc’s solid performance in Spring Training a few months ago reportedly earned him a spot in the big league rotation (MLB.com has him as the no. 4 starter), where he’ll now earn $800,000 this season. The former Alabama Crimson Tide pitcher will turn 36 in August, but so far LeBlanc has managed a rather serviceable 11-year career in the majors, both as a starter and reliever.

I’d be lying if I said there was much of a market for LeBlanc (who sports a career 4.46 ERA), but for non-contending teams like the Orioles starting pitching is tough to come by; and LeBlanc does have some spunk with his cutter/changeup/sinker mix, which led to his career-year as recent as the 2018 season when he posted a 3.72 ERA in 162 innings with the Seattle Mariners (1.6 WAR).

This will be LeBlanc’s eighth big league team in 12 seasons, and looking at his age he’s obviously not in the prime of his career. However, if he can get back to more of a 4.00-ERA guy instead of the 5.71 ERA he posted in 2019, the 6-foot-3 lefty may survive a few more seasons as an innings eater for last-place teams.

MLB Free Agents: 2021 free agency outlook (AL East)

Toronto Blue Jays

A growing trend lately, and one examined by Cory Hildenbrand of the Jays Journal a few months ago, is the number of teams that have begun offering long-term extensions to their young core players. The Blue Jays have several players that fit that mold in Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Cavan Biggio — a group of homegrown youngsters that could help lead Toronto into its next phase of contention. However, the Jays also decided to become big players this past winter and spent more cash than usual, taking on over $40 million for the 2020 season with three crucial signings (Travis Shaw, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Tanner Roark) as well as a trade with the Milwaukee Brewers that netted pitcher Chase Anderson.

It’s nice to see the Blue Jays showing some interest in competing, and even with the team’s recent additions it’s 2020 payroll still sits at a healthy $134.5 million (only around $8 million higher than last season’s). With only three players set to earn over $10 million in salary in 2021 — as part of just $66.8 million currently committed — Toronto is in a good position to start locking up its young stars on team-friendly extensions.

2021 MLB Free Agents

• Ken Giles, RP
• Matt Shoemaker, SP
• Joe Panik, 2B
• Anthony Bass, RP

The 29-year-old Giles, fresh off a 1.8-WAR 2019 season in which he struck out 14.09 batters per nine and posted a stingy 1.87 ERA with Toronto (both rates good for top-10 among all relievers in the majors), is set to earn $9.6 million in 2020 as part of a one-year deal he signed with the Jays to avoid an arbitration hearing. Although, as recent as Wednesday there have been calls for Toronto to lock up the hard-throwing right-hander… which makes sense when looking at his dominant numbers, plus given the fact that he himself has already spoken about his desire to re-sign with the Blue Jays. A strong 2020 season will only help make that happen for Giles.

Shoemaker was also given a one-year pact for the 2020 season ($4.2 million) to avoid an arbitration hearing, though his 2019 season was far less impressive to that of Giles, thanks to a torn knee ligament on April 20 that cost him much of the campaign. Still, Shoemaker will hold down the no. 4 spot in the Blue Jays’ starting rotation this year and has a chance to earn his place in Toronto’s future if he can get back to his 2017 days with Los Angeles Angels when he posted a sub-4.00 ERA and was worth 3.5 WAR.

Panik was added to Toronto’s 40-man on March 16 and will be expected to provide depth in the middle infield this season, while earning $2.850 million as part of a minor league deal he signed back in mid-January. Currently 29-years-old, Panik isn’t exactly what he was in the early portion of his career (when he was 2-2.5 WAR player with the San Francisco Giants from 2014-17), but he’s a career .271 hitter that has always flashed a solid glove. Biggio and Brandon Drury currently stand in front of Panik on the Blue Jays’ second base depth chart.

Lastly, the Jays also avoided an arb hearing with Bass by handing out a one-year, $1.5 million salary to the 32-year-old for this season (after claiming him off waivers from the Seattle Mariners back in October). Bass racked up the most appearances of his career in 2019 with Seattle, which is a good thing as Toronto is expected to give him a long look as the team’s main set-up guy, in front of Giles. Bass, a former 2nd round pick (2008), owns a career 4.38 ERA in eight big league seasons.

MLB Free Agents: 2021 free agency outlook (AL East)

Boston Red Sox

The almost $20 million expected to come off next year’s payroll, from four 2021 free agents, doesn’t move the needle much when considering the looming questions surrounding the Red Sox. Just take a look at the list of players Boston will pay this season, who won’t even contribute:

Trading star outfielder Mookie Betts did help, though (even while paying half of David Price‘s salary), as the Red Sox come in just under the $208-million tax threshold ($199.9 million), but really they’re just kicking the can down the road to next year if the team really plans to compete with the likes of the New Yankees and the Rays (Boston already has $150.8 million committed to 2021’s payroll). The Red Sox aren’t in the most ideal situation, and Chris Sale‘s Tommy John surgery really doesn’t help matters (especially given they still owe him roughly $160 million), but perhaps a shortened season isn’t so bad for them.

2021 MLB Free Agents

• Jackie Bradley Jr., OF
• Kevin Pillar, OF
• Brandon Workman, RP
• Colin McHugh, SP

It didn’t take long for Red Sox Nation to move on from Bradley, who posted one of the worst seasons of his career in 2019, struggling to the tune of a .225 AVG and just 1.4 WAR. But the truth is, Boston’s homegrown center fielder has been trending negatively for essentially the last three seasons, finishing with a wRC+ of 89, 90, and 90 from 2017-19, respectively, including an increase in strikeout-rate. It’s almost a done deal that the Red Sox will let Bradley walk next offseason, which may not be as bad as it seems, given the organization’s tenth-ranked prospect, Jarren Duran, is coming along nicely. For now, though, Bradley will earn $11 million in 2020… and try his best to improve his value for the winter.

Recently acquired Alex Verdugo seems ready to go, after battling recent back problems, though the Red Sox were smart to bring in Pillar to give the team a lefty bat, signing the veteran outfielder to one-year, $4.250 million deal back in February. Pillar, 31-years-old, made Boston look even smarter during Spring Training when he hit .355 with four doubles in 12 games. He’ll play plenty in 2020 and shouldn’t have trouble finding work next offseason.

Workman (The “Yackman”) had an incredible 2019 season with Boston, allowing Red Sox fans to all but forget about former closer Craig Kimbrel. In 73 appearances, the 6-foot-5 Workman converted 16 saves and posted a 1.88 ERA — good for a 2.1-WAR season last year (tied for the fifth-most WAR in the majors by a relief pitcher). Perhaps even more impressive, is how the 31-year-old accomplished all of that despite carrying a hideous walk-rate of 5.65 BB/9. Regardless, there was interest among Red Sox Nation to extend Workman, but that was before COVID-19. The former 2nd round pick (2010) will earn $3.5 million this season.

With Sale out for the year from his recent Tommy John surgery, McHugh fills in nicely in the Red Sox starting rotation, but not without his own recent ailments. Last season the 32-year-old’s campaign was ruined thanks to chronic elbow soreness — an injury he’s just now getting over (he’s about 2 months into a throwing program now). Unfortunately, McHugh’s days as an above-average starter with the Houston Astros are over with, spending the last two seasons as a reliever; however, with a $600,000 salary for the 2020 season he has a chance to show he can still take the mound every fifth day, perhaps even giving him some value on the market next offseason.

MLB Free Agents: 2021 free agency outlook (AL East)

New York Yankees

Always sure to be one of the major’s biggest spenders, the Yankees thus far are set to pay roughly $23 million in taxes for going over the $208-million luxury-tax threshold this offseason. Of course, that’s what happens when you roster a pitcher earning $36 million this season, in Gerrit Cole, and eight others with salaries over $10 million.

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Overall, though, the Bombers’ $260.2 million payroll for the 2020 season takes a rather substantial dip next winter (only $120.5 million committed to 2021), given the team will lose roughly $50 million worth of player salaries from the three 2021 MLB free agents listed below.

2021 MLB Free Agents

• Masahiro Tanaka, SP
• D.J. LeMahieu, 2B
• James Paxton, SP

We’ll look at Tanaka and Paxton together, given most believe the Yankees will extend one of the two (though they really don’t have to). Despite Tanaka ($22.142 million) earning more than Paxton ($12.5 million) in 2020, it’s generally believed that Paxton will command more on the open market. However, from a durability standpoint, Tanaka — who’s five days older than Paxton (31-years-old) — seems like a better investment.

Paxton has one more season in the majors than the Japanese righty, but Tanaka has almost 300 more innings-pitched, thanks to him tallying at least 150 innings in all but one of his six major league seasons (compared to just two seasons with 150+ frames for Paxton). As I said, though, it’s not required that the Bombers sign one of the other, especially with Cole signed for the long haul, Severino returning next season, and of course, the various young pitchers coming up through the Yankees’ system… but if I had to pick one then it’s Tanaka.

Ryan Morik of FanSided thinks the Yankees should be extending LeMahieu right now, and he seems right given how weak New York’s middle-infield depth looks. LeMahieu is set to hit the market after earning $12 million in 2020, but following an MVP-caliber year in 2019 that included 5.4 WAR in the regular season and a .325 AVG in the Playoffs, the Yankees would be crazy not to at least have a discussion with the soon-to-be 32-year-old. Either way, his market is red hot, considering he’s capable of hitting over .300 and slugging 25 homers as a second baseman.