MLB Players: Three outfielders that need to finally put it all together
If there is a 2020 season, can these three MLB players finally put their injury-riddled pasts behind them?
Few things in baseball are more heartbreaking than the buildup of anticipation for a top prospect, only to witness injury after injury derail their MLB career, leaving fans wondering what if?
Some of these potential MLB players toil around in the minor leagues before gradually phasing out of the game, while others eventually reach the major leagues, but don’t stick for one reason or another.
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As beautiful of a game baseball can be, it can be equally as cruel. But if you have the talent and the tools, teams are typically willing to give you every opportunity to cement your place on the roster and we as fans can be quick to forget about struggles and jump on the hype train.
Let’s look at three young(ish) outfielders who have seen injuries define the early portions of their career but have both the skillset and opportunity to make a lot of noise in 2020 and put their injury-riddled histories behind them.
San Diego Padres: Franchy Cordero
Anyone familiar with San Diego Padres outfielder Franchy Cordero is well aware of the size and strength the 25-year-old brings to the plate, two characteristics he put on full display back on April 20, 2018 against the Arizona Diamondbacks. It was this 489-foot home run clocked at 116.9 mph that opened a few more eyes to the exciting young outfielder looking to break into the Padres lineup.
Franchy Cordero tried to hit this one into oblivion. 489 feet later, he pretty much did. pic.twitter.com/WGthlTgBgU
— MLB (@MLB) April 21, 2018
Groin injuries, elbow ailments, and forearm troubles have limited Cordero to 79 major league games over the past three seasons, just nine of them coming in 2019. Cordero faced a tough battle to break into the Padres lineup with Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, Franmil Reyes, and Wil Myers all demanding playing time, but constant battles with injuries prevented Cordero from cracking the lineup.
We don’t have large sample sizes of data to make more concrete projections when it comes to Cordero’s future, but he’s been very impressive in his short stints and has showcased some of his impressive tools.
Looking back at his 2018 numbers, Cordero’s average exit velocity on balls in play was 92.6 mph, approximately five mph harder than the average major league hitter. Pure strength and putting barrel to baseball nearly 13% of the time (double the MLB average) led to a 52% hard-hit rate. The home run featured above is a prime visual of how his strength can impact a game, even at Petco Park where home runs can be hard to come by.
Cordero is also shockingly fast on the basepaths. He hasn’t had many opportunities to showcase his speed, but Cordero ranked in the 94th percentile in sprint speed in 2018, per Baseball Savant. His 6’3” and 175-pound frame doesn’t appear to have that extra gear in the tank, but Franchy Cordero is one of the more underrated athletic beasts of baseball.
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There are still a number of questions surrounding Cordero’s future. While he has the speed, his defense can be highly questionable. Poor routes and timing have haunted his play in the outfield and his speed isn’t always able to bail him out.
He’s also experienced his fair share of struggles at the plate. Cordero owns a 38.8% career strikeout rate in the big leagues, paired with an 8.8% walk rate and a .240/.306/.431 batting line. There’s a good chance that regular playing time would lead to more consistency and higher overall production, but he has to stay healthy.
With the DH coming to the National League, the Padres could see Myers slot into this role, allowing an opening for Cordero as a starting outfielder next to Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham. The San Diego Padres are a young and exciting team on the rise and the addition of a healthy Franchy Cordero would add yet another dangerous piece to an already dangerous lineup.
Of the three MLB players we’re set to discuss today, Baltimore Orioles outfielder Austin Hays is primed to take over at Camden Yards.
While Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not thrilled to see more of Austin Hays out in centerfield, fans of the Baltimore Orioles are impatiently waiting to watch one of their top prospects finally stay healthy and make a home in Brandon Hyde’s lineup.
Austin Hays. You are RIDICULOUS! 😱 pic.twitter.com/PZ5JpnxjOJ
— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) September 20, 2019
Hays was a third-round pick of the Orioles back in 2016 and became the first player from his draft class to reach the majors when he appeared in 20 games the following year in 2017. He didn’t produce much offensively, as expected for such a young hitter in the AL East, but O’s faithful were ready to watch him take over a starting job on Opening Day 2018.
Unfortunately, ankle surgery, hamstring issues, and a sprained thumb caused him to miss large chunks of time in 2018 and 2019 and not make his return to the majors until September of last season.
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His quick rise through the system and long journey back to a healthy state have led to a bit of prospect fatigue when it comes to Hays, but fans shouldn’t be so quick to write off Hays. The 24-year-old out of Jacksonville University is still an exciting prospect with the tools and attitude to break out when he finally gets to play a full season and is a serious Rookie of the Year candidate, whenever baseball returns.
It’s difficult to make any judgments based on September numbers, but Hays torched his way through major league pitching in 21 games last season, hitting .309 with 10 extra-base hits, a 146 wRC+, and finished with an fWAR of 0.9. Most notably, Hays produced a 9.3% walk rate and a respectable 17% strikeout rate. Two knocks on Hays as he worked his way through the minors were that he didn’t walk very much and he was a pull-hitter who defenses had figured out. He showed improvements in both of those areas after his September call-up.
The glove is ready for a long major league career and if Hays can show more patience at the plate and channel his aggressive approach, the Orioles have themselves a young outfielder to build around, maybe even a center fielder.
Like Bradley Zimmer, many young MLB players have had their careers derailed by injury. Zimmer is healthy now, however, and fighting for playing time.
As Eno Sarris once proclaimed during his time at Fangraphs, “Bradley Zimmer is ridiculous.” It was Zimmer’s speed that peaked Sarris’ attention, noting his 30.1 feet/second sprint speed back in 2017 when Zimmer made his major league debut and played in 101 games for the Cleveland Indians.
For reference, only three MLB players that had an average sprint speed faster than 30.1 ft/sec last season (Byron Buxton, Trea Turner, and Tim Locastro were all between 30.3 and 30.8 ft/sec).
📂 MLB
— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) June 3, 2018
└📁 Real-Life Superheroes
└📁 Bradley Zimmer#RallyTogether https://t.co/3XqxkM9ZX4
You can witness Zimmer’s speed for yourself below.
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The former first-round pick is the old man of this trio (now 27 years old) and has just 43 big league games under his belt since his 2017 debut, but Zimmer still has an opportunity to breakthrough with the Indians and become a regular in their lineup.
With a few years remaining until he hits free agency and two minor league options remaining, it isn’t necessarily a make or break year for Zimmer, but the Indians patience with him can only last so long.
Now recovered from 2018 shoulder surgery and subsequent setback that cost him nearly two full seasons, Zimmer finds himself among a group of Indians outfielders who are adequate, but lack any standout abilities or “wow factors.” He was optioned to Triple-A before Covid-19 brought the world to a quick halt, but possible expanded rosters and even a taxi squad in 2020 could allow Zimmer to ease his way back into things against major league pitching.
With above-average speed (109 stolen bases from 2015-2017 between High-A and the big leagues), some pop in his bat (double-digit home runs in each of his final two seasons leading to his big league debut), and fantastic defensive abilities, there’s still potential for the former Indians first-rounder to put it all together.
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One commonality among all three of these outfielders, other than their injury history and breakout potential, is the opportunities available to slide into a starting lineup. Will any of them step up in 2020? Hopefully we get the opportunity to see.