Fantasy Baseball: 3 takeaways from 60-game MLB season
With fantasy baseball drafts starting back up again, time to look at some key strategy changes needed for a 60-game MLB season.
MLB is back, and right along with it, fantasy baseball drafts.
It is still, of course, entirely possible there won’t actually be baseball in 2020. COVID cases and concerns could easily cause another postponement before the end of July. But fantasy baseball, at least fantasy baseball drafting, is underway already. Fans want to get that much in. Even if the best approach would be to wait until the last week of Spring (Summer?) Training before committing draft picks to players that might get injured in what will easily be the most bizarre camp of their careers.
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So just how much should draft strategy change in a 60-game MLB season?
Plenty.
Yes, still draft Mike Trout first overall. But while a lot of this will be impossible to predict, and a lot of this will depend on how these bizarre re-ramp ups of players go (more reason to wait), there are at least three facts that seem clear as day to this fantasy baseball player already. Let’s get to them.
Fantasy Baseball, take one: You’ve never cared more about multi-eligibility.
Sixty games might not be a lot of MLB, but I would expect it to be a lot to ask of your fantasy baseball players when it comes to games played.
Regular rosters are going to be expanded. Taxi squads are going to heavily utilized. Managers and GMs are going to have extra itchy trigger fingers when it comes to slumps. Injuries are going to be a thing as always, and will quite likely happen with greater than usual frequency. Some teams will go heavy on rest days to stave this off, while others will run players into the ground. Pretenders will give reps to everyone on the 40-man roster. Contenders will leave no stone unturned looking for that missing piece.
Bottom-line, count on needing to be more creative than ever filling out those lineups. Be your league daily or weekly in nature, you’re going to want as many players as possible who are eligible at multiple positions. Players like DJ LeMahieu and Max Muncy should receive healthy bumps, and Cody Bellinger is now a Top 3 overall pick in my eyes.
Fantasy Baseball, take two: You’ve never cared less about eastern division pitching.
Next up for fantasy baseball advice in this shortened 2020 MLB season: don’t even think about drafting Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer, or Jacob deGrom.
Okay, that’s an overreaction.
However, you should absolutely be slightly lowering your expectations for them. Baseball’s Eastern divisions are scheduled to square off in 2020. Meaning Cole, Scherzer, deGrom will be spending most of their seasons battling six teams that went .500 or better in 2019. And these aren’t just any winning teams, but some of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. Sure, the Baltimore Orioles and Miami Marlins will be there too. But that’s not enough to mitigate the damage to ERAs an unhealthy serving of Ronald Acuna Jr., Aaron Judge, and Juan Soto will cause.
As far as the elite arms mentioned above go, you might be better served to let them pass you by in drafts. Go hitter first, then “settle” for Justin Verlander, Walker Buehler, or Shane Bieber. Anyone of those three ending the season as the No. 1 pitcher wouldn’t surprise me.
Admittedly, this is more about adjusting expectations for the pitchers that aren’t the Top 3 SP options in fantasy though. Plenty of other Top 40 names can be found in the AL and NL East, as well as several intriguing prospects. That’s where you really want to take a moment to think about what those ratios are going to look like by season’s end. If you do, I think you’ll drop them in your projections accordingly.
Really, it should also be noted that starting pitching across the board might take a hit, as they could spend effectively half the season finding their groove. Just one more reason to fade those Eastern pitchers.
Fantasy Baseball, take three: You care even less about MOST prospects.
Last but not least, fantasy baseball players are going to need to put a premium on immediate return. And that means also fading your project prospects.
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When baseball first shutdown, I wrote another fantasy piece advocating the opposite approach. Mainly that was about not worrying anymore about innings limits on a Jesus Luzardo, or treating Chris Paddack as a true ace. Those specific examples still hold true. The elite rookies should absolutely still be drafted.
The caution here is about those names on preseason draft boards you had down as stashes on your bench. Yordan Alvarez, Juan Soto, and Gleyber Torres were all on my fantasy teams before their first MLB at-bat these past couple seasons. Mining for prospect gold is a big part of my strategy, as it is for millions of other fantasy baseball players. That needs to be tempered in 2020.
Hitting it big on draft day is going to be much more important this season. Almost as important as the need to react uber-aggressively on waivers when it comes to hot streaks and fast starts. You won’t have the luxury of waiting for the lesser prospects to secure playing time, or in some cases elevation from team taxi squads.
For example, let’s just transfer the 2020 situation to last season. In a 162-game season, I was able to keep Alvarez stashed for weeks. If 2019 was a 60-game campaign though, I almost certainly would have had to drop him for Tommy LaStella or Joc Pederson.
You will too.
Next. Creative Decisions Await For Rotations, Bullpens. dark
Anyway, I hope this little primer helps you get a jump on Fantasy Baseball Draft Season Part II. Unless, of course, you’re playing in my league.