Boston Red Sox: Will Martin Perez help the rotation?
How will LHP Martin Perez help the depth-lacking Boston Red Sox rotation?
The Boston Red Sox signed lefty starter Martin Perez to a one year deal with an option for 2021 this past offseason. He is currently set up to be the Red Sox third starter after Eduardo Rodriguez and Nathan Eovaldi. Looking at what he’s done the past few years, that is not a very pretty third starter.
He posted a 5.12 ERA in 29 starts with the Minnesota Twins in 2019. That’s not a good ERA at all and while many of his other surface numbers look bad, when you look in-depth you can see why the Red Sox would take a chance on Perez.
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First off, his xERA (expected ERA) was at 4.05 compared to his actual 5.12 ERA which means there was certainly an element of unluckiness and bad fielding in 2019. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was also less at 4.66.
The reason he should’ve had better numbers than he actually did is that he generates extremely weak contact, and this is what makes him a possible solid addition to the rotation.
The average exit velocity of his pitches logged in at 85.4 MPH, which was in the top 4% in the MLB. The hard-hit % against him was 29.4%, which was in the top 7% in the MLB.
Only 28 balls out of 532 batted balls were barreled up off of Perez in all of 2019. He clearly does a great job generating week contact.
What he doesn’t do well though is strikeout batters. If you were hoping Perez would be a punch-out machine type pitcher then you’ve got the wrong guy.
His 7.3 K/9 from 2019 was well below the league’s average of 8.9 K/9. With this being said, Perez needs to continue to consistently generate weak contact if he is going to have a chance at being effective.
The other thing that gives reason for some optimism is Perez’s new cutter which he first introduced last year with the Twins. This pitch was extremely effective for him and was one of the most effective cutters in all of baseball.
It became his go-to pitch in 2019, throwing it 30.8% of the time and I’d expect that trend to continue. Here is his full repertoire from last year and the batting averages against each pitch:
- Cutter: .214 BA
- Sinker: .302 BA
- Changeup: .272 BA
- Four Seamer: .370 BA
- Curve: .345 BA
It was clearly his most effective pitch. When looking at Fangraphs individual pitch values, his cutter ranked second in the MLB for all cutters only behind Yu Darvish.
With 2019 being his first year using this pitch in his entire career, there is certainly potential for him to become even more effective with it. That type of growth is something that gives at least some reason for optimism with Perez in the Red Sox rotation.
The Boston rotation lacks any sort of depth after losing Chris Sale to Tommy John Surgery and David Price to the Dodgers, so Perez is going to have to pitch whether he is good or bad. He certainly probably won’t wow anybody, but I wouldn’t be too shocked if he’s solid as a starter for the Boston Red Sox.
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I’d expect him to continue to work of that cutter and if he can keep consistently generating weak contact, that is at least a recipe for some sort of success.