Here’s a prediction: 2020 MLB season will be unpredictable
By Bill Felber
For MLB prognosticators, the problem lies in the inherent up-and-down nature of a long season by comparison with something as short as a 60-game sprint. Of the 11 MLB teams that won at least 35 games during a given 60-game stretch in 2019, six – the Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians, Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, and New York Mets – failed to reach post-season play.
The other five teams who won at least 35 games during a 60-game stretch but also had a .500 or worse 60-game stretch were the Tampa Bay Rays, the Oakland Athletics, the St. Louis Cardinals, the Washington Nationals and the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Giants provided perhaps the most striking illustration of this “who knows what you’ll get in a sprint” phenomenon. During their first 60 games, they went 25-35, a .417 percentage that effectively ruined their season. Yet only a little more than a month later – during a 60-game stretch between games 65 and 124 – the Giants had a 37-23 record, a .617 percentage. Same team, same season, two vastly different results.
The Mets provided an even more stark example. Between games 24 and 83 – basically mid-April to mid-June, they stumbled along at a 24-36 rate, a .400 percentage that left them far behind the NL East leaders.
Yet between games 103 and 162 – fundamentally the final two months of the season – the Mets played 39-21 ball, a .650 winning percentage.
The vagaries of a 60-game season are likely to dramatically impact the performance of players as well, as a look at the 2019 breakdowns of some of the game’s best will illustrate. But first the answer to that question.
Between games 60 and 119 – essentially the months of June and July – the Cleveland Indians went on a 43-17 tear, matching Houston and Los Angeles for the best 60-game run in MLB in 2019. Yet the Indians failed to play a post-season game because they were 50-52 the rest of the year.