Dodgers vs Phillies: Simulating the NL Wild Card game

In this NL Wild Card sim, the Philadelphia Phillies take on the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The 2020 NL simulation wild card game matched the NL East runner-up Philadelphia Phillies against the NL West runner-up Los Angeles Dodgers.

Heavily favored to win another divisional title, the Dodgers didn’t disappoint They won 99 games and were beaten out for the division title only because the Arizona Diamondbacks played consistently brilliant ball all season.

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As was to be expected, the Dodgers were led by a veritable All-Star lineup and pitching staff. Cody Bellinger batted .309, hit 53 home runs, and led the NL in RBIs with 151. Mookie Betts hit .307 with 40 homers and 101 RBIs, and Joc Pederson added 44 home runs.

On the mound, Clayton Kershaw performed up to his usual standards: a 17-5 record and 2.66 ERA in 33 starts. Walker Buehler added a 16-6 record and 3.16 ERA.

The Phillies survived a stretch run fight with the Chicago Cubs for the second wild-card spot, eventually compiling a 92-70 record to beat the Cubs by two games. The Phillies operated most of the season without a dominant star, J.T. Realmuto leading all hitters with a .301 average.

Rhys Hoskins hit a team-leading 40 home runs, one more than Bryce Harper, and added 110 RBIs.

The pitching staff was led by a trio of surprising figures. Vince Velasquez surged during the season’s second half to finish with a 17-7 record and 3.49 ERA in 29 starts. Zach Eflin, meanwhile, was 15-10 with a 3.18 ERA. Zach Wheeler, obtained prior to the season, went 14-11 with a 3.68 ERA.

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That offset unimpressive performances by the two high-dollar pitchers, Aaron Nola (7-11, 3.85) and Jake Arrieta (9-8, 4.75).

During the regular season, Los Angeles won four of the teams’ six meetings, all of which took place during the middle of May. On May 14 Eflin, Phillies manager Joe Girardi’s wild card starter, threw a complete game at the Dodgers, winning 5-2 and allowing just six hits.

Five days later, though the Dodgers got even, beating Eflin 7-1. He only lasted four and two-thirds innings, allowing five runs, although just one of them was earned. One day later, the Phillies beat Kershaw 9-5, scoring six times off of him in six and one-third innings.

At Dodger Stadium for the Wild Card game, the favored hosts wasted little time tearing into Eflin. Max Muncy singled to open the second inning, and Justin Turner followed by lining a fastball into the left-field bleachers for a two-run home run.

In the third, Betts provided the leadoff hit and shortstop Corey Seager the home run, this one flying out to right field. When Chris Taylor blasted a one-out home to left in the third, Eflin’s night was through, leaving his team in a 5-0 hole.

Kershaw made protecting that lead look effortless. Philadelphia’s first hit didn’t come until Hoskins doubled to center with two out in the fourth, but he went nowhere as Scott Kingery struck out. Jean Segura opened the fifth with a base hit but went nowhere as Kershaw struck out Neil Walker and pinch hitter Didi Gregorius, then got Andrew McCutchen on a ground ball. Segura doubled with two out in the seventh, but that too came to nothing.

Kershaw nearly nailed down a complete game shutout, but he wasn’t quite up to that level of excellence. In the ninth inning, Jay Bruce touched him for a leadoff home run, and two outs later Kingery did the same. That cut the margin to 5-2 and was enough to get Dodger manager Dave Roberts to summon closer Kenley Jansen for the final out. He bagged it, retiring Segura on a routine flub all to left.

The victory sent the Dodgers against the Diamondbacks for a resumption of their season-long battle, this time at the division series level.

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Philadelphia 000 000 002 — 2 5 0

Los Angeles 022 100 00 — 5 6 0

W: Kershaw. L: Eflin.

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