Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds: Simulating 2020 NLDS

The Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds battle through a full 5 games in the 2020 NLDS simulation.

The Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds both survived tight races to capture their divisions in the 2020 simulation.

The Braves won the NL East by a single game over the Philadelphia Phillies, finishing with a 93-69 regular-season record. The Braves held that one-game advantage entering the simulation’s final weekend, but faced a supreme challenge in that the schedule threw them against the imposing Houston Astros in a season-closing inter-league series at home.

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The Braves won only one of those final three games but survived when the Phillies lost twice in their final weekend series with the Washington Nationals.

The Reds had a marginally easier time of it, carrying a game and a half advantage into their final weekend series with the Pittsburgh Pirates. While they split those games to finish 91-71, the Cubs failed to gain the sweep they needed to close the gap, losing a Friday game in 12-innings to the Cardinals that put them hopelessly behind.

Atlanta won five of the seven regular-season games played between the two teams, although the series was extraordinarily close. Four of Atlanta’s victories came by a single run.

The Atlanta Braves entered the division round in less than peak physical condition. A nagging groin injury to outfielder Nick Markakis was of particular concern, slowing him down the stretch and forcing the Braves to rely increasingly on Ender Inciarte. Reserve outfielder Adam Duvall entered the series nursing sore abs that made his usefulness doubtful.

The Reds were not without their own physical issues, particularly involving outfielder Nick Senzel. Although carried on the active roster, Senzel was not expected to play much, his duties to be shared between Aristides Aquino and Philip Ervin.

Game 1 of the 2020 NLDS: Cincinnati Reds vs Atlanta Braves

In Atlanta, the Reds sent their ace, Luis Castillo (11-8, 3.15) against Atlanta’s 20-game winner Sean Newcomb (20-11, 3.43). A regular-season revelation, Newcomb had beaten Castillo and the Reds 2-1 April 28. He lasted six innings that day, allowing just two hits; Castillo completed eight innings and allowed four hits.

In July, Newcomb got a no-decision in a 6-5 Braves victory in which he pitched into the sixth inning. One day prior to that, Castillo took a 3-2 loss to the Braves in a game in which he completed seven innings, scattering nine hits and permitting just one earned run.

The Reds seized the early momentum and appeared to have the game under control midway through. Joey Votto’s first-inning home run provided a quick energy boost, then Mike Moustakas opened the fourth inning with a home run of his own and Freddy Galvis followed with a double, scoring on Castillo’s base hit.

Castillo looked rock solid atop that 3-0 advantage. He survived a brief second inning dustup when the first two batters reached, but at one point set down nine Braves in succession and nursed that lead into the sixth.

The Reds, meanwhile, teased their margin with threats that died fruitlessly. They left two runners on base in the first inning, two more in the fourth, two more in the seventh, and 12 for the game.

Then, suddenly, heck broke loose. After Castillo retired Ronald Acuna Jr. on an easy grounder to Eugenio Suarez at third, Freddie Freeman lined a base hit to right and Marcell Ozuna followed with a hit of his own to left.

It was the kind of budding threat Castillo had stifled before, and he did fan Austin Riley to put himself one pitch away from a clean escape. Instead, Dansby Swanson rifled a single to left scoring Freeman and knocking Castillo from the mound. Michael Lorenzen came on seeking the third out, but all he found was Johan Camargo, who drove a double down the left-field line to send Ozuna and Swanson home. Suddenly the game was tied.

It didn’t stay tied for long. The next hitter, Tyler Flowers, blooped a single over second base, and with two out Camargo scored easily from second.

In the seventh, the Braves kept up their assault on Lorenzen. After Ozzie Albies went down on strikes, Acuna sent a base hit into right. Freeman took a called third strike he thought missed the plate wide, but Lorenzen walked Ozuna to set the stage for Riley. The outfielder-third baseman tied into a Lorenzen offering and sent it hurtling into the delighted left field partisans, increasing the Braves lead to 7-3.

That was more than enough for Braves relievers Will Smith and Shane Greene. Suarez managed a harmless ninth-inning home run that set the final margin at 7-4. The combined five RBII by Camargo and Riley – coming on just two swings – were the difference. Those and the dozen stranded Reds runners.

Cincinnati            100         200         001 – 4  12  1

Atlanta                 000         004         30    –7  13 1

W: Smith. L. Lorenzen. S. Greene.

Game 2 of the 2020 NLDS: Cincinnati Reds pitcher Sonny Gray shines at Sun Trust

The second game pitted pitchers with ace credentials. The Reds went with Sonny Gray (14-6, 3.07), their veteran right-hander. Gray made only one regular-season appearance against the Braves, and it was a brief one. Six batters into his July 30 start, he walked Nick Markakis, squawked about two of the pitches, then hit Austin Riley in the thigh and was summarily ejected.

The Braves went on to win that game 5-1, breaking a five-game losing streak to Atlanta.

One night earlier, Max Fried (18-8, 2.37), Atlanta’s choice for the Game 2 start, handed the Reds the last of those losses, a 3-2 decision. Fried pitched into the sixth inning, allowing one run and three hits before being removed.

This game belonged to Gray from the start, especially after he weathered the first-inning threat. Albies started that threat with a double over Ervin’s head in center, and Gray complicated things for himself by walking Acuna and Riley with two out. But he got Travis d’Arnaud to bounce into an inning-ending fielder’s choice, then settled in and allowed just one hit over the next five innings.

Fried, too, pitched well…but not that well. Moustakas touched him for a second-inning home run, and his third-inning double sent Nick Castellanos across to make it 2-0. In the fifth, Votto singled ahead of Suarez’s home run, giving Cincinnati and Gray a 4-0 advantage.

The Braves made one last run at Gray in the seventh when Votto’s error allowed Riley to reach. One out later he found himself on third base thanks to Swanson’s walk and Camargo’s base hit. Pinch hitter Adeiny Hechavarria followed with a fly ball to medium center, but Riley’s test of Ervin’s arm came up empty when Ervin gunned him down at the plate to kill the threat.

The Reds added an insurance run in their half of the seventh, and Atlanta got a consolation ninth-inning run off the Reds’ bullpen. That made the final score 5-0. Over his seven innings, Gray allowed just three hits.

Cincinnati            011         020         100 – 5 11  1

Atlanta                 000         000         001 – 1   4  0

W: Gray. L. Fried

Game 3 of the 2020 NLDS: Atlanta Braves slugger Freddie Freeman, but no Flowers.

As the series moved to Cincinnati, the Braves turned to Mike Soroka (9-13, 3.60) to give them a leg up. He was opposed by Reds left-hander Wade Miley (8-8, 3.61).  Miley beat Soroka and the Braves 5-1 in a complete game performance April 27 but lost to them 3-2 July 29.

The visitors, however, gave the Reds no opportunity to get comfortable at home. After Miley retired Albies on strikes, Inciarte reached on a sharp hit off the shin of Galvis, and Freeman followed with a 430-foot blast deep into the right-field seats.

The Braves weren’t done. Acuna walked, Ozuna, doubled him to third and with two out Flowers drew another base on balls. That brought up Swanson, whose line single to left set Acuna and Ozuna home with the inning’s third and fourth runs.

Miley’s efforts were terminated in the second when Freeman launched another fastball into the seats and Acuna drew another walk. That made the score 5-0 and summoned Trevor Bauer, who had been bypassed for the start in favor of Miley. He got Ozuna on a ground ball for the final out.

Soroka took full advantage of that lead, shutting out the Reds on a single hit through six innings.  Still, things were not entirely to Atlanta’s advantage. With one out in the third Bauerv hit Flowers with a pitch, fracturing his finger and knocking him out of the remainder of post-season play. That left d’Arnaud as the team’s only rostered catcher.

With Soroka sailing along, the Braves added two more runs in the sixth inning and a final one in the ninth for an 8-0 shutout victory Soroka allowed just three hits: a second-inning single by Aquino, Suarez’s seventh-inning double and a ninth-inning leadoff double by Votto. He walked only one.

Atlanta                 410         002         001 – 8 9  1

Cincinnati            000         000         000 – 0  3  0

W: Soroka. L: Miley.

Game 4 of the 2020 NLDS: Cincinnati Reds have spotted a Moose!

As the only fresh arm among the available rotation options, Anthony DeSclafani (12-10, 4.03) got the must-win assignment for Cincinnati. It was DeSclafani’s first look at the 2020 Braves. Mike Foltyniewicz, the winner in a 3-2 July 27 game between the two teams, opposed him. Foltyniewicz (14-7, 4.27) went eight innings that night, allowing just one run and three hits.

DeSclafani survived a shaky first inning that might otherwise have undermined the Reds’ hopes for the day and the series. Freeman slashed a two-out single into right, and Acuna got in the way of a DeSclafani breaking ball, putting runners at first and second, The next batter, Camargo, tied into a fastball and drove a seed … straight into the glove of Moustakas at second.

Castellanos gave the home team a slight edge in the bottom of the first when he doubled over Acuna’s head in center, scoring Phillip Ervin, who had walked. Moustakas followed with a single, but Acuna gunned down Castellanos trying to score to minimize the damage.

The Braves made another run at DeSclafani in the fourth. Suarez’s muff of Freeman’s ground ball preceded Acuna’s line drive off DeSclafani’s glove for an infield hit. When Camargo lined a base hit to right, Freeman rounded third with an eye for home. Then, with none out, he thought better of it, checking up and filling the bases.

That’s when Desclafani buckled down.  He fanned d’Arnaud, got Inciarte on a pop up to short left, and induced Riley to lift an easy infield pop to Moustakas.

That turned out to be the last and best shot the Braves had at DeSclafani. Moustakas’ home run followed, and in the bottom of the fifth Suarez followed Votto’s double with a home run into the left-field seats knocking Foltyniewicz, and one out later Moustakas homered for the second time in two innings. That boosted the Reds’ lead to 5-0.

D’Arnaud’s home run leading off the seventh gave Atlanta a bit of a boost, but that was the extent of the Braves’ production. Amir Garrett and Raisel Iglesias covered the final two innings for the Reds, Jesse Winker homered in the eighth and the Reds sent the series to a decisive fifth game.

Atlanta                 000         000         100 – 1   6  0

Cincinnati            100         130         01   — 6 10  1

W: DeSclafani. L: Foltyniewicz