Red Sox vs. Astros: Simulating the 2020 ALDS

Two division winners, the Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros meet in the first ALDS.

Both the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros won their divisions comfortably. The Red Sox took command of the AL East with a 15-game mid-season winning streak and were never really challenged from that point on. They finished with a 96-66 record that left them 16 games in front of the runner-up Tampa Bay Rays.

The Astros had an even easier time of it. Five games in front less than a month into the season they were never challenged, winning 104 games and coming home 18 and one-half games ahead of the runner-up Los Angeles Angels.

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During the regular season simulation, the teams met six times, all during the second half of May.  The Astros, at the time playing the best ball in MLB, won five of those six meetings, Brad Peacock picking up two of the victories. Houston outscored Boston 43-22 in those six games, establishing themselves as the clear favorite in the division round.

In Boston’s favor, it’s worth noting that the Red Sox won 55 of their final 82 games, a better second half showing than even the Astros.

Neither team entered the division round at full health. The Red Sox offense had to cope with a series of incapacitating injuries to first baseman Mitch Moreland that restricted his availability largely to pinch-hitting. That was meaningful because Moreland finished with a .276 average and 31 home runs, making him one of Boston’s most productive threats. But he saw little action in September.

Boston Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo was also hampered physically, and again the loss hurt. Verdugo batted .295 with 23 home runs and 74 RBIs, operating from one of the top two spots in the order. In their places, the Sox were forced to rely on Kevin Pillar in Verdugo’s place and Michael Chavis largely subbing for Moreland.

The Houston Astros had issues of their own. Star DH Yordan Alvarez had an exceptional season, piling up a .306 average with 35 home runs and 94 RBIs. But Alvarez, too, played little in September, coping with the after-effects of fatiguing illness. The other Astro casualty was center fielder George Springer, a .318 hitter during the regular season with 45 home runs and 92 RBIs but rehabbing a strained calf muscle over the season’s final week.