The 2020 NLDS simulation: D-Backs vs. Dodgers
The NL’s two best teams meet for the right to advance to the NLCS
The Diamondbacks-Dodgers division series pitted the two teams with the National League’s best records against one another.
All season long, underdog Arizona had challenged the heavily favored Dodgers, eventually winning out on the strength of a remarkable 107-win regular season.
That thrust Los Angeles back into a one-game wild card playoff against the Philadelphia Phillies despite the fact that LA’s 99-win season would have won the NL East by six games or the NL Central by eight.
Arizona took the simulation season series from LA by 11-8, including four wins in five September meetings. The problem for the D-Backs was post-season experience. Arizona had only reached post-season play once since 2012, that coming in 2017. But only three regulars returned from that roster – Robbie Ray, Ketel Marte and Jake Lamb.
The Dodgers, of course, presented the most battle-tested post-season team in decades. LA was making its eighth successive post-season appearance, having won the NL West annually since 2013. The only Dodger without playoff experience was part-time rookie infielder Gavin Lux.
With no meaningful injuries to speak of, the Dodgers were also the healthier team. Arizona outfielder David Peralta (.286, 17 home runs, 70 RBIs) had spent much of September nursing nagging physical ailments that made his post-season value questionable. Entering the Dodger series, that intensified the pressure on backup Tim Locastro (.252, 3 homers, 28 RBIs in 85 games), who would be Peralta’s primary fill-in.
Game 1: Walker Buehler’s day on
Having used Kershaw to dispatch with the Phillies in the wild card game, the Dodgers turned to Walker Buehler (15-6, 3.16) for the opener against Arizona. Buehler had faced the Diamondbacks twice during the regular season, losing 9-4 on Aug. 1 then coming back to win 5-1 two weeks later.
His opponent was Zac Gallen (12-7, 4.95), a season-long force for Arizona. Like Buehler, Gallen had mixed experiences with his opponent. He was the loser in Clayton Kershaw’s June 16 no-hitter, beat the Dodgers 8-5 June 23, then lost a second time to them July 30, this time 4-3. On Sept. 1, Gallen evened his personal season record against Los Angeles, beating Julio Urias 5-3.
Both teams scored in the first inning at Chase Field. Cody Bellinger’s double drove home Justin Turner, who had drawn a two-out walk. Then in the bottom half of the inning NL batting champion Ketel Marte slammed a double off the wall in center and came home on Eduardo Escobar’s base hit.
But as Buehler settled in, the Dodger offense pecked away at Gallen. In the third, Bellinger homered. One inning later, three walks led to another run. Turner’s fifth inning home run made the score 4-1 and doomed Gallen, who was gone at inning’s end.
Buehler did allow an Escobar home run in the sixth, but Max Muncy more than offset that with a two-run shot of his own in the seventh. When he was pulled after seven innings, Buehler had allowed just the two runs on five hits, striking out seven. The Dodgers breezed to a 7-3 victory.
Los Angeles 102 110 200 — 7 6 0
Arizona 100 001 001 — 3 8 0
W: Buehler. L: Gallen
Game 2: The D-Backs bite back
David Price (14-8, 4.25), LA’s game two starter, sought both to give his team a sweep of the two games in Arizona and also improve his personal record against the D-Backs. He faced them twice during the simulation, losing 7-3 on June 15 but winning 10-3 on Aug. 2.
Arizona sent Robbie Ray (10-9, 4.86) against Price. Ray also made two regular season appearances against his opponent, getting a no-decision in a 7-6 Dodger win June 17 and losing 5-1 to Buehler Aug. 16.
The Diamondbacks moved early to even the series score. Price walked Starling Marte, walked Escobar one out later, then delivered a three-run bomb to right fielder Kole Calhoun.
The Dodgers got two of those runs back in the second when Bellinger singled, Muncy lined what turned out to be a two-base hit off the leg of third baseman Jake Lamb and Enrique Hernandez grounded a base hit into right that scored them both. The Muncy liner was doubly damaging for Arizona, knocking Lamb out of the game with a bad bruise that would sideline him for the remainder of the series.
There was nothing the D-Backs could do about Lamb’s absence, but they could do something about those two runs. In the third, Calhoun sent a double into the right-center field gap and Christian Walker cashed it in with a line drive home run into the left field bullpen. That made the score 5-2 Arizona.
Ray never gave the Dodgers another chance to get close. Hernandez’ hit was LA’s last of the game, Ray leaving two outs into the seventh after he walked Chris Taylor and hit Corey Seager with a pitch. He struck out a dozen.
Los Angeles 020 000 000 — 2 3 0
Arizona 302 000 02 — 7 10 0
W: Ray. L: Price
Game 3: Mookie, Mad Max, and Mad Bum
When the series shifted to Los Angeles, Arizona readied its most experienced playoff arm, Madison Bumgarner (14-9, 4.11). Bumgarner beat Buehler 9-4 on Aug. 1, then two weeks later beat Ross Stripling 7-3. He picked up a third series victory Sept. 2, a 5-3 win over Alex Wood, but saw his perfect season against the Dodger spoiled in a 5-3 defeat Sept. 12.
Opting to give Kershaw extra rest, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts nominated Wood (13-7, 4.82) for what amounted to a rematch of that Sept. 2 Arizona win. Going purely by records, it was a gamble; Wood had also lost 14-2 to Mike Leake July 31, 2-1 to Luke Weaver Aug. 15, and 5-0 to Merrill Kelly Sept. 13.
But that’s what makes baseball famously unpredictable. Wood looked sharp from the start, retiring the D-Backs quietly through the first three innings. Bumgarner was even better, allowing just one baserunner, a leadoff walk to Betts, before setting down nine straight.
Carson Kelly’s two-out fourth inning home run lifted D-Backs spirits, but only momentarily. Muncy’s home run over the wall in dead center evened the score in the inning’s bottom half, and one inning later LA took the lead for good. Wood started it, rolling a one-out single into left field, Betts followed with a base hit, then Starling Marte made a costly muff of Muncy’s fly ball, allowing Wood to come around to score. When Turner bounced a single through shortstop, Betts also scored to give the dodgers a 3-1 advantage.
The way Wood was pitching it may as well have been 10-1. He retired the last 11 batters he faced before being lifted for a pinch hitter after eight innings. By then Betts had added a home run to make the final count 4-1. The pitcher who had gone 0-4 against Arizona during the regular season shut them down on a single run and just five hits in the pivotal third game.
Arizona 000 100 000 — 1 5 1
Los Angeles 000 120 10 — 4 9 0
W: Wood. L: Bumgarner. S: Jansen.
Game 4: Tantalizingly close
Up a game and playing at home, Roberts gambled again with his pitching options. Electing to save Kershaw for a possible fifth game or for the NLCS opener, he instead gave the ball to Ross Stripling (7-10, 3.92). Stripling had made two regular season starts against the D-Backs, a no-decision in a 5-4 Arizona win June 18 and a 7-3 Aug. 14 loss to Bumgarner.
D-Backs manager Torey Lovullo had no such flexibility; he turned back to his game one starter, Gallen.
The Dodgers got Gallen in trouble right from the start, but he somehow survived. Betts lined a leadoff single to left, Chris Taylor followed with a base on balls and one out later so did Muncy. That loaded the bases for the dangerous Turner. Gallen fanned him, then got Matt Beaty to kill the threat on a routine ground ball to second.
There was no similar escape when the top of the Dodger order got a second shot at Gallen in the third. This time Taylor followed Betts’ base on balls with a double down the left field line. Bellinger’s fly ball was deep enough to score Betts, and Muncy sent a line drive inside the right field line for a double pushing Taylor across.
Gallen found more trouble in the fourth, and this time it finished him. With one out he walked catcher Will Smith. Stripling tried to lay down a sacrifice bunt, and succeeded beyond his wildest dreams, beating out the bunt for an infield single. When Betts drew another walk, the bases were again loaded.
Again Gallen moved to the precipice of escape, whiffing Taylor. But there was no escape from Bellinger, who sent a rocket screaming into the left-center field gap for a bases-clearing double. His hit gave LA a 5-0 advantage and knocked Gallen out of the game.
To that point, Stripling had been masterful, allowing just one hit through the first four innings. But down five runs in a game they had to win, Arizona’s offense finally came to life in the fifth. Starling Marte got it going with a home run to left, and after Stripling walked Ketel Marte Escobar lined a base hit into left.
One out later Walker sent both runners home with a booming drive to right that found him on third base with a triple. When Stephen Vogt lifted a fly ball deep enough to left to get Walker across, Arizona trailed by just one run, 5-4.
The rest of the game would amount to a fruitless pursuit of that distinctive run. The Dodgers padded their margin against reliever Archie Bradley on Will Smith’s two-run home run in the seventh. Calhoun’s eighth inning home run off Pedro Baez cut the deficit to 7-5, and Nick Ahmed’s two-out blast off Kenley Jansen made it 7-6.
But moments later Arizona’s last hope, pinch hitter Ildemaro Vargas, flied easily to Bellinger for the series-ending out.
The Dodgers had not only put away their season-long nemeses in four games, they’d done so without having to use Kershaw.
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Arizona 000 004 011 — 6 7 1
Los Angeles 002 300 20 — 7 10 0
W: Stripling. L: Gallen. S. Jansen