Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 2020 NLCS simulation

The favored Los Angeles Dodgers and the surprising Cincinnati Reds play for the NL pennant.

Two teams with long histories of post-season frustration met in the simulated 2020 NLCS for the right to advance to the World Series.

The Los Angeles Dodgers haven’t won a World Series since 1988. They reached the Series in 2017 and again in 2018, but lost both years …to the Houston Astros and then to the Boston Red Sox.

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In 2019, they failed to reach the NLCS, losing to Washington in five games in the division round.

The Cincinnati Reds, who eliminated the Atlanta Braves in the division round, have waited nearly as long. Cincinnati’s last World Series win – indeed, its last NL pennant – came in 1990.

Entering the NLCS, the essential difference was postseason experience. Since 1988, the Dodgers have made 13 post-season appearances, including those two, missed World Series opportunities. By winning the NL Central, the Reds qualified for only their fifth post-season appearance since 1990, and their first since losing the 2013 wild card game.

In fact, prior to eliminating the Braves, the Reds hadn’t won a postseason series since they eliminated the Dodgers in the 1995 division round.

For those reasons among others, the Dodgers loomed as a heavy NLCS favorite even though they qualified as a wild card entrant. With a 99-63 regular-season record, Los Angeles actually had by far the better record, eight games better than the Reds’ 91-71.

But a note of caution had to be attached to those season records. The Reds actually won the season series from Los Angeles, taking four of the teams’ seven regular-season meetings and out-scoring the Dodgers 39-33 in the process.

In summary, the Los Angeles Dodgers looked like winners on paper. But the Cincinnati Reds remained dangerous.

For the Los Angeles Dodgers, its the Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger show.

Hoping to make it a clean sweep at home, Bell nominated Trevor Bauer (10-8, 4.23) to make his first post-season start of the 2020 simulation in Game 2 of the NLCS. Bauer made one division series appearance, relieving Wade Miley and pitching four and one-third innings in the fourth game, a 8-0 defeat.

Bauer faced the Los Angeles Dodgers once during the regular season, an 8-5 loss July 1 against his opponent on this day, Walker Buehler.

Buehler (15-6, 3.20) was coming off a victory in the opening game of the division series with Arizona.

The Dodgers made short work of Bauer.  One out into the second, A.J. Pollock rolled a grounder that Suarez couldn’t handle at third, for an error. The next hitter, Hernandez, exacted the ultimate price for that bobble, a two-run home run into the left-field seats.

The Dodgers weren’t through. Catcher Matt Barnes doubled, Bauer walked Buehler, and Betts loaded the bases with a bloop single to right. Seager lined a base hit to left scoring Barnes and Buehler and also driving Bauer from the game.

If that four-run rally disheartened the Cincinnati Reds, they recovered nicely. After Curt Casali opened the third inning with a base on balls, first baseman Kyle Farmer homered into those same left-field seats to get two of the runs back. One out later, Freddy Galvis followed Nick Senzel’s base hit with another home run, this one to right, tying the game at 4-4.

But Roberts stayed with Buehler, and he steadied nicely, retiring the Reds in order through the seventh. By then the Dodgers had re-established their lead thanks to a seventh-inning uprising against Robert Stephenson and Reed.

With one out in the seventh, Stephenson walked Seager, prompting Bell to summon Reed to face Bellinger. The lefty-vs-lefty strategy may have made sense on paper, but Bellinger ‘s base hit gave right-handed Justin Turner a look at Reed. Turner punched a base hit into right field, scoring Seager and sending Bellinger to third.

Reed lasted only as long as it took him to walk Joc Pederson, filling the bases.   Michael Lorenzen was brought on to deal with Pollock, whose fly ball to right was deep enough to get Bellinger home with the inning’s second run. The third scored seconds later when Hernandez singled to left, scoring Turner. When left fielder Aquino bobbled the ball, Pederson also tried to score but Aquino gunned him down at home plate to end the inning.

The Dodgers played add-on against Garrett in the eighth. He walked Betts, then fired a high fastball that Seager deposited over the center-field wall to make the score 9-4. The next batter, Bellinger, took  Garrett deep to right, knocking him from the mound and summoning Pedro Strop as Cincy’s sixth pitcher of the game.

The Reds added a pair of consolation runs in the bottom of the eighth thanks to a Barnes error, a double by pinch hitter Phillip Ervin and a Nick Senzel base hit. But it was far from enough, the Dodgers heading for home with a 10-6 win.

Los Angeles        040    000    330 – 10 13  2

Cincinnati            004    000    020 –    6   5  2

W: Buehler. L: Stephenson.

For the Cincinnati Reds, the game was over way too early.

Despite the pounding his bullpen absorbed in the NLCS Game 2 loss, Cincinnati Reds manager Bell entered the third game at Dodger Stadium with high hopes because his other ace, Luis Castillo, was scheduled to make the start. Castillo (11-8, 3.23) had beaten the Los Angeles Dodgers 12-3 June 30 in his only appearance against them and was coming off a pair of division series outings against the Braves.

He took a no-decision in their 7-4 game 1 defeat and took another no-decision in the game 5 clincher.

Roberts countered with left-hander David Price (14-8, 4.42), a 7-2 loser to Arizona in the division round. Price made two regular-season starts against the Reds, getting no-decision in a June 10 6-5 Cincinnati victory and beating the Reds 6-4 on July 2.

For a fleeting instant, the Reds were competitive. Votto drove a one-out double into center and scored on Castellanos’ base hit.

The problem was that Castillo had nothing on the Dodgers. Betts took a walk to lead off the bottom of the first, Seager slapped a hit and run single into left field, and Bellinger’s fly ball got Betts home with a tying run. A Turner walk and a Max Muncy base hit made it 2-0, and after Castillo retired Pederson he walked Chris Taylor to load the bases for Smith.

The Dodger catcher made Castillo pay for his wildness with a two-run scoring single to right, and Price doubled down on the damage with a line single to left that sent Taylor home with the inning’s fifth run.

And the Dodgers still weren’t through. Taking a second shot at Castillo, Betts singled to right, scoring Smith. That was enough for Reds manager Bell, who lifted Castillo in favor of Miley. The left-hander did record a third out, but not before Seager doubled into the right-center field gap, scoring Price and Betts.

One inning into the third game, the Dodgers led 8-1.

And they never let up. In the third, Bellinger singled home Seager, who had doubled. In the fourth, Pederson homered. In the fifth, Seager followed a Betts single with another home run that made the score 12-3.

The Dodgers added a final four runs in the sixth, Betts becoming the third Dodger in three innings to homer. That made the final score 16-3, LA pounding out 18 hits against the besieged Reds staff. Seager had four of them, Betts and Price three each.

Cincinnati            100    020    000   —   3   7  0

Los Angeles        801   124    00      –16 18 0

W: Price. Loser: Castillo

The Cincinnati Reds shouldn’t get too comfortable. No lead is safe in Los Angeles.

Trailing in the NLCS and on the road, the Cincinnati Reds needed a quick energy boost to get back in the series. They appeared to get it against Dodger Game 4 starter Alex Wood (13-7, 4.82.) In the top of the first, base hits by Nick Senzel, Eugenio Suarez, Nick Castellanos and a concluding three-run home run by Mike Moustakas shot Cincinnati to a fast 4-0 advantage.

Even better, the Reds piled on against Wood in the second. Farmer singled, and with two outs Senzel’s base hit sent him to third. Aquino followed with a run-producing hit and Suarez followed that with Cincy’s eighth hit inside of two innings, scoring Senzel and Aquino, knocking Wood out of the game and making the score 7-0.

It looked very much like payback for the eight-run first inning haymaker Los Angeles had delivered one day earlier, and more than enough to put Reds Game 4 starter Anthony Desclafani (12-10, 3.97) on course to level the NLCS at two games each.

There is, however, a relentless quality to the Dodger offense, and on this day they showed it. That quality built gradually. In the bottom of the second, Beaty singled, catcher Tim Federowicz singled and pitcher Ross Stripling’s ground ball got Beaty across. One inning later, Bellinger walked, went to third on Muncy’s base hit, and scored on Turner’s infield roller. That made it 7-2.

The explosion came in the fifth. Betts led off with a line double down the right-field line, and Seager followed by doubling him home. Bellinger reached when Moustakas tried – and failed – to retire Seager at third on a ground ball, and Muncy singled, sending Seager across. That made it 7-4, still with none out. When Turner followed with a base hit that filled the bags, Reds manager Bell pulled the ripcord on DeSclafani in favor of Reed.

That strategy worked for a moment. Reed fanned Beaty for the first out. But that brought up Chris Taylor, and he shot a drive into the left-field corner that cleared the bases and sent him around to third base with a triple. When Federowicz sent a too-hot-to-handle shot to Suarez at third, Taylor scored with the inning’s sixth run, putting the Los Angeles Dodgers ahead of the stunned Reds 8-7.

Desperately the Reds fought back. In the sixth Farmer worked a leadoff walk from Stripling and worked his way around to score on a Senzel hit. Suarez’s seventh-inning home run put the Reds back on top 9-8.

Per routine, Bell turned that lead over to Iglesias to begin the last of the ninth. This, was not, however, one of the Reds closer’s better days. Bellinger doubled to center leading off, and Muncy followed with a base hit, Bellinger stopping at third. When Turner bounced a single through the infield into right, LA had re-tied the game 9-9 and had runners at first and second with none out.

Bell replaced Iglesias with Amir Garrett, who appeared to make things worse, walking Beaty. Then the Reds got a reprieve. Taylor lined a missile right back at Garrett, who caught it and nailed Beaty off first base for a double play. When Smith popped up to Moustakas at second, this wild game proceeded to extra innings, a 9-9 tie.

Dodger closer Jansen set the Reds down on three straight strikeouts in the top of the10th. The only fresh arm left to Bell, Lucas Sims, walked Pollock to begin the bottom of the inning and saw him advance on Betts slow roller to Suarez at third.

That gave Seager an opportunity to end NLCS Game 4, and the Dodger shortstop didn’t miss. He shot a base hit to center, Pollock easily beating Senzel’s throw home for the deciding run in a game the winners once trailed by seven runs.

The victory put Los Angeles within one win of the NLCS championship.

Cincinnati            430    001    100    0 –    9 13  2

Los Angeles        011    060    001    1 – 10 15  0

W: Baez. L: Sims. S: Jansen.

For the Los Angeles Dodgers, this was a day for Jocs as they bury the Cincinnati Reds.

With a chance to wrap up the NLCS at home, the Los Angeles Dodgers summoned Kershaw, the loser in that Game 1 pitcher’s duel, for a rematch with the guy who had beaten him, Gray. As in the fourth game, the Cincinnati Reds – trailing by 3 — needed a quick jolt and also as in the fourth game, they got it.

Aquino elevated to the leadoff spot by Bell on the idea that his power might provide an early lift, came through right on script. He hit Kershaw’s third pitch over the wall in center for a home run.

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That seemed to rattle Kershaw, who fanned Senzel but walked Suarez and gave up a base hit to Castellanos before coaxing a double-play ball out of Moustakas.

Gray came out hot, fanning the first four Dodgers he faced. But he walked Joc Pederson one out into the second, fired a pitch to the backstop that sent Pederson to second, then allowed a Max Muncy double that sent Pederson across with the tying run.

It was only a brief spasm of wildness, and Gray quickly recovered. He retired the next 10 Dodgers he faced three on strikeouts. Kershaw matched him, following Moustakas’ double-play ball by setting the Reds down in order in the second through the sixth innings. That gave him 16 consecutive retired hitters, six on strikes.

In the home fifth, LA edged in front when Barnes slapped a two-out single into center, and Kershaw, of all people, dropped an RBI double inside the right-field line.

That gave LA a 2-1 lead, but the decisive blow fell one inning later. After Gray retired the first two Dodgers in the bottom of the sixth, Turner worked him for a walk and Pederson lofted a towering fly ball that cleared the right-field barrier for a two-run home run.

The Reds finally mounted something approaching a rally against Kershaw in the seventh. The Dodger pitcher started it, banging a fastball off Suarez’s ribs. Castellanos drove a double into the left-center field gap, and Moustakas’ hit sent Suarez across. One out later, Votto’s fly ball carried deep enough to allow Castellanos to score a run that made it 4-3.

Cincinnati’s problem was they could never quite get control of the Dodger offense. In the bottom of the seventh, Gray walked Barnes with one out, prompting Bell to lift him for Reed. Pinch hitter Gavin Lux greeted Reed with a smash into the depths of the right-field corner scoring Barnes and allowing Lux to reach third with a triple. Betts followed with a run-scoring fly ball to make it 6-3, and after Seager singled Suarez threw wildly trying to retire Bellinger, allowing Seager to come all the way around with LA’s seventh run.

With Kershaw having been lifted for pinch hitter Lux, the question then became whether the Dodger bullpen could protect that four-run lead over two innings. Roberts’ first choice to do so, Julio Urias, made things interesting. Pinch hitter Phillip Ervin, Aquino, and Senzel all singled off him, loading the bases and bringing Suarez to bat as the potential tying run. When Urias compounded his problems by hitting Suarez, forcing Ervin across, Roberts called on Pedro Baez to replace Urias.

It was a difficult situation – bags full, lead run at the plate, none out – but Baez proved the master of it. He fanned Castellanos, fanned Moustakas, and then capped the inning by getting Freddy Galvis to swing through a third strike, terminating Cincinnati’s last best hope.

Opting to ride with Baez rather than take chances on Jansen, Roberts left his set-up man in to finish off the NLCS in the ninth. He did so at the cost of a two-out base hit to Jesse Winker, following that by striking out Aquino to end the game.

Cincinnati            100    000    210  — 4  8  1

Los Angeles        010    012   30      –7  7  0

W: Kershaw. L: Gray. S: Baez.

Seager, with 10 hits (two of them home runs) and 10 RBIs in 21 at-bats, was voted the NLCS MVP.