Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 2020 NLCS simulation

Can Sonny Gray of the Cincinnati Reds defeat Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers?

The NLCS opened at Great American Ballpark, both teams sending aces to the mound. The Los Angeles Dodgers led with Clayton Kershaw (16-5, 2.69), who they had not needed in dispatching the Arizona Diamondbacks in the division round. Kershaw’s last appearance was his victory in the wild card game against Philadelphia eight days earlier.

The Cincinnati Reds countered with right-hander Sonny  Gray (14-6, 3.00), a 5-1 winner over the Atlanta Braves in Game 2 of the division series.

Both pitchers worked like the aces they were. Gray allowed a second-inning single to Justin Turner and a fifth-inning double to Enrique Hernandez, but otherwise limited the Dodgers to a harmless pair of walks through six innings.

Early on Kershaw was even better. He retired the first 11 Reds he faced – six on strikeouts – before Eugenio Suarez dropped a two-out double down the left-field line in the fourth. Kershaw struck out Nick Castellanos to end that threat.

But with an assist from the Dodgers, Cincinnati caught up with Kershaw one inning later. One out into the fifth, shortstop Corey Seager bobbled Aristides Aquino’s ground ball, allowing him to reach base safely. It wasn’t much of a crack in the Dodger defense, but catcher Tucker Barnhart plowed through it. Barnhart crushed a Kershaw breaking ball into the left-field seats for a two-run home run.

It turned out to be all the Reds would get, and also all they needed. Gray set down the Dodgers in the sixth and seventh, then got catcher Will Smith on a groundout and pinch hitter Matt Beaty on strikes. Only when Mookie Betts lined a two-out double to the wall in the center did Reds skipper David Bell decide against pushing his luck with Gray any further. He summoned Cody Reed to face Chris Taylor, and Reed struck him out.

In the ninth, closer Raisel Iglesias struck out Cody Bellinger before issuing a walk to Joc Pederson. That brought up Justin Turner as the potential tying run, creating a nervous moment for Iglesias whose 24 saves had been offset by a so-so 3.84 ERA.

But Iglesias fanned Turner as well and then got Max Muncy on a game-ending ground ball to second.

Los Angeles        000    000    000    — 0  3  1

Cincinnati            000    020    00       — 2  5  1

W: Gray. L: Kershaw. S: Iglesias