Miami Marlins Schedule Ludicrous, But Has One Bright Spot

At first glance, schedule makers did the Miami Marlins no favors when putting together the 2020 MLB season. But there is a silver lining.

When MLB released the short-season 2020 schedule earlier this month, Miami Marlins fans would have been fully justified consigning themselves to another top pick in the MLB Draft.

Things were already looking bleak for Miami record wise before the 2020 season was postponed. The NL East was, and is, easily baseball’s toughest division, having produced four teams with a .500 record or better in 2019. Two made the playoffs, and one won the World Series. While a case can be made Miami improved the most of NL East teams this offseason, they still finished twenty-four games out of fourth place.

Under the new short season format, the Marlins will be playing 40 of 60 games against their own division. The rest come against the AL East, another division with two 2019 playoff teams. Not what you want for a team that just went 57-105. And as I noted when the division centric plan was first announced, the Marlins were a paltry 24-52 against their own division last year. Put another way, that’s a .315 winning percentage within the division, and a .383 mark against everyone else.

So, all bad news for the Miami Marlins, right? Well, not exactly.

Without question, it is mostly bad. It is considered the hardest schedule in MLB. They don’t play a team that had a losing record last year after September 2nd. Seven of ten games against the Atlanta Braves are in Atlanta, and the season ends with a seven game road trip against the Braves and the New York Yankees. Rough stuff.

However, it is the front end of the schedule that could actually springboard the Miami Marlins right into the thick of the 2020 MLB playoff race.

Out of Miami’s first eighteen games, only six are against teams that had a winning record in 2019. Half of those are home games. That opening stretch does include three games against the .500 Philadelphia Phillies, but that was also the only NL East team the Marlins had a winning record against last season.

Let’s just say the Marlins start the year 12-6, maybe even 13-5. Not a big deal most seasons. The Seattle Mariners went 13-2 to open 2019, and finished as the sixth worst team in MLB. But in a 60-game season? That 13-5 Marlins squad is in playoff position, and probably squeaks in just going .500 the rest of the way. Even a 17-25 finish at least ends the stretch of ten straight losing seasons.

Imagining a world where the Miami Marlins make the playoffs is admittedly a big ask. Imagining a hot start with that soft a schedule though? That’s…actually pretty plausible. Should be an interesting year.