MLB Trade Talk: Running through best fits for Mike Foltynewicz
Sure, in his last time out Mike Foltynewicz got rocked. But casting out a playoff-tested starter with an All-Star game nod under his belt seems wasteful.
In a world of long home runs and even longer innings (at least if Shohei Ohtani is on the mound), starting pitching is really at an almost unheard of premium. That’s why I was so surprised when the Atlanta Braves cut ties with Mike Foltynewicz after just one short-season start. It was not a good start by any stretch, as he allowed six runs over 3.1 innings, and the heater was notably lacking in velocity. But this just is not the time to completely abandon ship with a pitcher that has been around the big league club for parts of the past six seasons.
The 6’4 righthander is just a few months away from turning 29 years old, and he’s cleared waivers and is safely stashed in the Braves’ minor league system. Next season will be his final year of arbitration before he hits the free-agent market heading into the 2022 season.
Folty, a former-first-round pick of the Houston Astros, has both the pedigree and the resumé to entice an MLB club to take a chance, especially if his price has plummeted to where no team even took a shot on him in waivers.
Any deal for the hapless and homer-prone hurler will likely involve a low prospect cost and maybe some cash for the surging Braves. Because of his likely low-cost, any big league club that wants to take a shot reasonably could do so.
In no particular order, I’ll run through a few of the best fits for Folty based on their potential to compete in the next two years, their need for starting pitching, and the hitting environment (at least season) that they’d be throwing him in to in terms of schedule. Not all of these teams are contenders, and though this may run at odds with the views of some, the league’s bottomfeeders deserve some love too, and if they can regain Folty’s top form, they will not hesitate to take that risk, especially in an expanded 2020 playoff conversation.
Let’s get started…
The San Francisco Giants
As an avid Dodgers fan, I take ̶a̶b̶s̶o̶l̶u̶t̶e̶l̶y̶ ̶n̶o̶ pleasure in reviewing the absolute mess of a pitching staff up north in San Fran. The Giants have cobbled together a post-Bumgarner rotation that is led by washed-up former-studs Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. Following that duo is Kevin Gausman, a 2020 offseason acquisition with a big arm and great prospect pedigree.
Sound familiar?
Gausman and Folty are fairly comparable in my eyes, but I’ll delve into that more in a bit.
San Francisco follows that not-so electric top of the heap with prospect Logan Webb and a regular who’s who of cheap grab-bag arms from the past offseason. Andrew Triggs and Tyler Anderson, cast-offs from the A’s and the Rockies respectively, serve as long-relievers alongside Shaun Anderson. Plus, Drew Smyly, the pitcher with the best chance to stand out of the mix, hit the IL on August 2 with a left finger strain.
I don’t really see any reason Foltynewicz can’t just waltz onto the alternate site, make one convincing outing, and join the big league club in the Bay. He has a better and deeper track record than any of the arms listed above save Cueto and Shark, and realistically, he carries higher upside and much less financial strain than the pair at a significantly younger age.
Now, to compare him to Gausman. The main offseason acquisition for Farhan Zaidi after the 2019 campaign, Gausman came to SF from Cincinnati, though he pitched poorly in Atlanta earlier last year. Another tall, righthanded, former-first-round pick, Gausman is a 29-year-old reclamation project that could pay off big for the Giants.
In 8.1 innings for San Fran this season, Gausman has allowed just one homer and one free pass while punching out ten. His most recent outing on July 30, saw him strikeout 8 San Diego Padres’, one of the most disciplined teams in the majors, without a single walk. He’s continued to allow a lot of hits, but his BABIP is high and his stuff looks strong.
Gausman could provide a perfect mold for Folty and the pair could provide a lethal punch for SF in their spacious ballpark. Both of their problems have stemmed from allowing too many long balls. In 2019, Gausman had a 1.32 HR/9 rate while Folty sat at 1.77 HR/9. Playing at the newly-dubbed Oracle Park will certainly help limit home runs, which could allow the pair to thrive.
The Kansas City Royals
COVID-19 did not hit many starting rotations harder than that of the Kansas City Royals. Brad Keller and Jake Junis, two of 2019’s workhorses for the Royals, both started the season out of action with the virus. A pair of prospects in Kris Bubic and Brady Singer have surprised many so far with their success in limited innings with the Royals in the shortened season, but the Royals could use a top-of-the-rotation pitcher.
While Folty’s current iteration is not likely ace-material, he certainly has been in the past, as he’s pitched in the postseason and been named an All-Star within the last two seasons, more than any current Royals pitcher can say.
Like San Francisco, Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium is spacious and saves some of the fly-ball prone pitchers from especially gaudy home run rates. Junis, for example, profiles similarly to Folty, and has found limited success keeping the ball out of the bleacher seats as a Royal. Junis, who is entering his age 28 season, had a 1.59 HR/9 in 2019, but saw that number drop down to 1.29 in just under 100 innings at home last season. If Folty could come to Kauffman and see his home run rate drop, he could find more success in the ERA department.
While Foltynewicz likely would not fit into the longest of long term plans for Dayton Moore and Kansas City, he certainly could help win them some games over the next few seasons at a low-cost. And if he pans out and regains his form, he could be resigned for 2022 and beyond, likely still inexpensively.
Any sort of contending experience could help the current crop of Royals, who only roster Salvador Perez and Alex Gordon as significant cogs in the 2014 and 2015 World Series runs. Folty could provide a sort of veteran leadership that the starting rotation lacks outside of Danny Duffy.
The Toronto Blue Jays
More than the Royals and Giants, the Blue Jays actually appear to be contenders for a postseason berth, especially with 2020’s expanded format.
While their exciting young hitting is what makes them the darlings of many fans, their pitching leaves much to be desired. Nate Pearson, an electric top prospect, made a splash after shutting out the Washington Nationals over five innings in his debut, but outside of his 100 mph arm, the Toronto rotation is middling at best, especially for the AL East.
Offseason acquisitions Hyun-Jin and Tanner Roark will add quality innings and veteran experience for the club, meaning Folty would not be expected to come in and provide leadership in these clubhouses, which could work to his advantage.
If he could focus on pitching and on winning a role out of their bullpen this season, that could set up the former-flamethrower nicely come 2021.
Outside of the three aforementioned Blue Jay arms, Matt Shoemaker and Trent Thorton fill out the rest of the rotation. While they should stick in 2020, Folty could pair nicely with Wilmer Font and A.J. Cole, to form a trio of arms with some decent velocity that can pitch multiple innings at the beginning of games or in the middle innings.
Plus, Shoemaker is a free agent at the end of the season, and Roark hits the market at the end of the 2021 campaign. Trading for Folty could allow the club to work him in as a high-leverage arm, opener, or long-relief piece this season while building him up in the offseason to slot into the rotation in the coming seasons.
Next. Shohei Ohtani injury could hurt LAA. dark
You may have noticed I didn’t bring up any playoff teams. While there is a chance he joins a contender in 2020, I think teams see the need to rebuild his confidence and velocity as a significant obstacle. No matter where Foltynewicz ends up, he’ll need some time to regain his velocity and his stuff, but assuming he’s in good health and can get out on the field, he could provide value to any pitching staff he joins.