Baltimore Orioles: Three players likely to be moved at the trade deadline
The Baltimore Orioles have a handful of pieces they could move at this year’s MLB trade deadline.
One of the biggest surprise teams of the 2020 MLB season has notably been the Baltimore Orioles. With nearly one-half of their schedule complete, the Orioles are currently 14-14, coming off two-straight wins against the Boston Red Sox and moving within 4.5 games back of the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays.
With the August 31st MLB trade deadline right around the corner, Orioles fans are curious to see if general manager Mike Elias is going to be a buyer or a seller at the deadline, with his streaky Baltimore Orioles not too far out of contention if they want to make a playoff run.
The Orioles are still in the very early stages of a complete rebuild, so spending some of their prospect capital doesn’t make a lot of sense right now, just as they begin to add some impressive depth down in the minor leagues.
It’s more likely that the Orioles are sellers at the deadline. Dominant starts to the 2020 season from a handful of players, including many bullpen pieces, will only help Elias make at least a move or two before the deadline.
Starting pitchers and relievers are dropping like flies across baseball and while we still don’t know exactly how active many teams will be at the deadline or how willing teams will be to part with higher-end prospects, we do know that a large number of teams may be desperate buyers at the deadline with a World Series run very possible for them in 2020 with a missing piece or two.
If the Baltimore Orioles are going to sell some pieces over the next few days, here are three players who are the most likely to be moved
Mychal Givens has been a steady reliever for the Baltimore Orioles.
The Baltimore Orioles have been fielding calls for reliever Mychal Givens since very early in 2019. Just a few weeks into the season, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal noted just a few weeks into the ’19 season that a few teams were in discussions with the Orioles in an attempt to acquire Givens, but the Orioles held pat with their high price tag on their reliever and didn’t end up moving him.
Givens is no longer the closer in Baltimore, but he has been nearly lights out in 2020 after a rocky 2019 season. For teams like the San Diego Padres who may not be looking to part with very much talent or add much to their books at the deadline, Givens would be an ideal pickup.
The 30-year-old right-handed pitcher is owed less than $1 million this year and brings with him additional control past the 2020 season.
In 11 outings, Givens has allowed just one earned run on six hits, striking out 16 hitters and posting a 0.77 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and a .150 average against in 11.2 innings.
While his 34.8% strikeout rate is higher than his career-high 33% mark of 2019 and he has yet to allow a home run after giving up 13 last season, walks have been an issue for Givens. He’s issued six free passes, good for a career-worst 13% walk rate in his small sample of innings.
The bullpen has been one of the more pleasant storylines for the Orioles this season and someone like Givens, or even Shawn Armstrong, may also join Richard Bleier in being shipped out of Baltimore.
Throw Miguel Castro‘s name in there as well. Castro began the year as one of the most effective relievers in baseball, but has cooled off significantly. He’s still striking out nearly 14/9 IP and if a team believes they can harness his 93 mph changeup and 98 mph fastball, the Orioles don’t need to think twice about moving Castro at his peak value.
With a long list of former teammates and coaches already in San Diego, Givens seems like a natural fit for the Padres who have seen injuries to Kirby Yates, Drew Pomeranz, Emilio Pagan, and others pile up very quickly.
Alex Cobb is healthy and producing for the Baltimore Orioles.
With every good look Baltimore Orioles fans get of Alex Cobb this season, the talk about trading him off now intensifies. As the 2020 MLB trade deadline approaches and with Mike Elias looking ahead to set up his roster for a future of dominance versus winning immediately, Alex Cobb seems to be one of the likeliest candidates to move this week.
The biggest roadblock to a possible deal is Cobb’s big contract. Cobb signed a four-year/$57 million deal ahead of the 2018 season and has since put up a 5-15 debut season in Baltimore and made just three starts in 2019 due to injury.
Cobb isn’t going to turn the tide for a team just outside of a playoff chase, but it appears that he’s now fully healthy and can be a stabilizing arm in a beaten-down rotation like that of the Atlanta Braves or New York Yankees.
Based on recent deals the Orioles have made to shed salary (Jonathan Villar, Dylan Bundy), it’s unlikely that the Orioles will eat much, if any, of Cobb’s salary, but a big market team in dire need of pitching might just be willing to cough up the money.
Through his first six starts, Cobb is 1-2 with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP, his lowest WHIP since 2014 with the Tampa Bay Rays. Thanks to the re-emergence of his splitter, Cobb has produced a 58% groundball rate, something he hasn’t done since 2012, his first full season in the major leagues.
It originally appeared as if Mike Elias was going to be extremely hesitant in bringing up his rookies, but Ryan Mountcastle is now in the big leagues and positive reports on Keegan Akin, Dean Kremer, and Bruce Zimmermann may lead to more rookies making their to the big leagues over the final four-five weeks of the regular season.
The Orioles already have a lot of innings available to for these rookies and moving Cobb only opens up more innings for Elias to evaluate his rookies against big league competition, versus practices at the team’s Alternate Site in Bowie.
Will other teams be interested in Baltimore Orioles starter Tommy Milone?
Let’s stay in the starting rotation for the final likely Baltimore Orioles piece to be moved and look at Tommy Milone. Yes, the 33-year-old soft-tossing lefty is very likely to be moved at this year’s MLB trade deadline thanks to a handful of effective outings this season.
Milone is 1-3 with a 4.13 ERA with the Orioles but his FIP is nearly a full run lower at 3.18 and he’s already accumulated 0.7 Wins Above Replacement, per FanGraphs. He hasn’t posted an fWAR above 1.0 since 2015 with the Minnesota Twins.
Milone has struck out 25 and walked just three in 24 innings this season, thanks in large part to his effective changeup. Milone has used his changeup 38.7% of the time and it’s produced a near 40% whiff rate up to this point. Milone is effective once or twice through an order and three of his six starts have gone at least five innings in 2020.
Playoff teams looking for a fifth starter or long-reliever to bring in behind a high-powered righty should be on the phone with the Baltimore Orioles at the deadline.
He won’t cost much to acquire, but from the Orioles’ perspective, getting something in return for Milone is a win. Just like we mentioned with Alex Cobb, moving Milone also makes more inning available to rookie pitchers waiting in the wings to make their Camden Yards debuts.
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It will be very interesting to see how active the Baltimore Orioles will be at this year’s deadline, but they do have plenty of pieces other MLB teams will be interested in.