CTTP Gambling: A Review of the MLB 2020 Season Thus Far

As this shortened and strange MLB season carries on, now is as good a time as ever to check in on how gambling on Overs, Unders, and Run Lines is going.

Just like statistics can show you the trends of your favorite player over the course of time, they also establish trends of who are the most reliable teams to gamble on. through 30ish games (depending on what team you are), there are now some clear betting trends you can follow. Some teams score lots of runs and/or have bad pitching to hit overs, while others excel (or don’t) at covering the Run line regardless of whether they win or lose. Let’s jump in and see where you should place your next bet.

Overs

1. LA Angels – 21-10-1 – 67%
2. SF Giants – 16-10-5 – 61%
3. SEA Mariners – 18-12-1 – 60%
4. TEX Rangers – 17-13 – 56%
5. CHI Cubs – 17-13 – 56%
6. HOU Astros – 17-13-1 – 56%

The Angels are the best team to bet on for picking over and while having Mike Trout and the Angels 10th ranked offense by runs helps, the main reason they are the king of Overs is their pitching staff sporting a near league worst 5.41 ERA. The Giants are a bit of a surprise given that their stadium and weather conditions favor pitchers, however, the Giants also struggle pitching with 4.99 ERA and scoring the 7th most runs this season.

The AL West is an over haven as four of its five teams occupy the top six spots. The Astros, not having the benefit of trash cans, are still third ranked in terms of scoring. It’s impressive the Rangers have so many overs considering they have the lowest scoring offense in all of baseball at just 3.6 Runs/Game. Like the Angels, the Rangers struggle with pitching noted by their 5.16 ERA

The Cubs have the 3rd highest exit velocity of any team in baseball which drives their own offense. What “helps” the Cubs hit so many overs is their bullpen is third worst by ERA and an unsightly 1.74 HR/9.

Unders

1. CLE Indians – 21-8-2 – 72%
2. MIN Twins – 21-9-2 – 70%
3. KC Royals – 19-10-2 – 65%
4. AZ DBacks – 20-12 – 62%
5. BOS Red Sox – 18-11-2 – 62%

If you like runs, stay away from the AL Central, where the top 3 Under teams reside. With the Indians excellent staff led by Shane Bieber, they are the most consistent under team in all of baseball. The Indians lead the league with 2.86 ERA and second best K rate in baseball. The Twins and Royals have the unfortunate pleasure of facing the Indians more time than not. The Royals are a better than you think, 12th in team ERA and have the spacious Kauffman stadium. Arizona despite a historically hitter friendly ballpark has only managed 4.3 runs per game and a team ERA of 5.25, the sixth worst in baseball. The Red Sox are in a transition and have the worst team ERA in baseball and a struggling offense.

Run Line – Best

1. CHI White Sox- 21-10 – 67%
2. NY Yankees – 18-9 – 66%
3. MIA Marlins – 17-9 – 65%
4. CLE Indians – 19-12 – 61%
5. SF Giants – 19-12 – 61%
6. KC Royals – 19-12 – 61%

The White Sox are the top team ATS in 2020 due to their better than expected 19-12 record powered by their Cuban players. One strong indicator is their run differential tied with the Indians for second best at +41. Despite COVID running rampant through the club, the Marlins have played much better than expected and find themselves second in the division while the Nationals occupy the basement. It’s hard to cover any spread when you don’t score runs and with the Indians’ lights out pitching and run differential, they are a solid bet to cover even as favorites.As said above, the Royals are better than you think at pitching which keeps games close and let the Royals cover games.

Run Line – Worst

1. TEX Rangers – 10-20 – 33%
2. BOS Red Sox – 11-20 – 35%
3. CIN Reds – 10-18 – 35%
4. MIL Brewers – 10-18 – 35%
5. LA Angels – 12-20 – 37%

When you don’t score runs and don’t pitch very well and play in an offensive stadium in the Texas heat, you get the Rangers who haven’t covered 67% of their games. Bet the team who is playing the Rangers. Ditto the Red Sox who don’t cover and hit unders as they work to undo the damage of Dave Dombrowski. The Reds generated some hype going into the season but have slumped to a 13-17 record. With their premium trio of Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, and Trevor Bauer, they go into games favored but end up losing anyways making it impossible to cover when they lose. The Brewers have a -34 run differential run differential which ties them with the lowly Angels in the bottom five. The Angels, like the Reds, generated hype and were considered a great team on paper however, their abysmal pitching has made it impossible even as their offense continues to perform.

These numbers will likely continue to shift as the MLB season continues and trades are made, but so far, there are clear trends that you can follow to make money while you social distance at home.