MLB: MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year Award predictions
The 2020 MLB season is quickly coming to a close. Here are the current favorites to take home the game’s most prestigious awards.
Ready or not, there are now less than four weeks remaining in the 2020 MLB regular season and the sprint to claim one of the 16 available playoff spots is currently on and sure to feature numerous exciting races.
Every win means a little bit more, every loss stings that much more, and embracing the weird has become a necessity to get to this point in 2020. Best of all, while it has been tough at times, it appears that every team is going to get their full 60-game schedule in, something many believed would be impossible at different points early on in the season.
As of August 2nd, we’ve seen the Los Angeles Dodgers dominate their way through the first 37 games of the season with 27 wins, the San Diego Padres have quickly become, arguably, the league’s most exciting team and made major moves at the trade deadline without sacrificing their top prospects, the Chicago White Sox are serious contenders to take the AL Central ahead of schedule, and the Miami Marlins are currently a playoff team.
Individually, San Francisco Giants outfielder Mike Yastrzemski has remained at or near the top of the Wins Above Replacement leaderboard all season (currently second at 2.1), Nelson Cruz is 40 years old but still playing as if he’s in his prime, Shane Bieber has been virtually unhittable, and for much of the first half of the season Los Angeles Angels starter Dylan Bundy was an early Cy Young candidate.
The 2020 MLB season has provided no shortage of impressive performances and there’s no sign that the entertainment will subside as the regular season wraps up.
This task wasn’t easy, but let’s try and predict who takes home MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year honors this year to cap off an exciting 2020 MLB season.
Across MLB, rookies have taken the league by storm in 2020.
American League Rookie of the Year- Seattle Mariners OF Kyle Lewis
There’s no easing into these award predictions. The American League Rookie of the Year race is clearly between Seattle’s Kyle Lewis and Chicago White Sox outfielder Luis Robert.
Both are having fantastic seasons. Both are extremely fun to watch. Both deserve this award. Both have very bright futures in Major League Baseball. The arguments for either of these two winning this award are valid.
Lewis and Robert are currently tied for the AL rookie lead in Wins Above Replacement at 1.6 and a lot of the offensive numbers are fairly similar between the two, but Kyle Lewis gets the slight nod in this vote.
Through 34 games, Lewis is slashing .328/.418/.527 with eight home runs, two doubles, 29 runs scored, and 21 RBI. He leads all rookies with a 163 wRC+ and is one of only two AL rookies with a walk rate above 10% (minimum 100 PA). His 13.7% walk rate is nearly double that of Robert’s (7.3%).
With Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, and now Taylor Trammell all in the Mariners system, Seattle’s outfield could quickly become one of the most dynamic outfields in all of baseball.
National League Rookie of the Year- San Diego Padres IF Jake Cronenworth
No one could have seen San Diego Padres rookie Jake Cronenworth putting up the type of numbers he has this season. The Cronenworth hype has become real, so much so, it’s no longer called the “Tommy Pham trade” anymore.
Cronenworth leads all NL rookies in fWAR at 1.4, double that of Luis Guillorme of the New York Mets who sits in second place at 0.7 fWAR.
The former Michigan Wolverine is hitting .356 with a .411 OBP, a 175 wRC+, four home runs, nine doubles, and three triples for the Padres and has been a standout player defensively. Cronenworth has played all around the infield where he’s made numerous highlight-reel and game-changing plays with his glove.
A quick look at his Baseball Savant page will show you just how elite his bat has been this year. You would think those numbers would have come back down to Earth by now, but he just keeps hitting and just keeps getting better.
The San Diego Padres found themselves an absolute gem.
One bad start could completely derail a pitcher’s chances of winning an MLB Cy Young Award in 2020. Don’t count on that happening with these pitchers.
American League Cy Young- Cleveland Indians RHP Shane Bieber
Shane Bieber is a slam dunk pick for AL Cy Young. Bieber has been so good on the mound this season, he’s also very likely to find his name in the conversation for the MVP Award as well. However, in a shortened season where starting pitchers will a much smaller number of appearances, it may be even more difficult for a pitcher to take home MVP honors in 2020.
Through eight starts, Bieber is 6-0 with a 1.20 ERA, a 0.82 WHIP, and a .163 average against. More than 42% of all hitters he’s faced in 2020 have fallen victim to the strikeout, which comes out to more than 14 K/9 IP.
Five of Bieber’s eight starts have been scoreless outings of at least six innings and he’s given up just two earned runs over his last 25 innings of work. There’s no debate about this pick. The 25-year-old is an elite arm who has a very bright career ahead of him.
National League Cy Young- Chicago Cubs RHP Yu Darvish
Much like the AL ROTY Award, this pick was extremely difficult to make. The NL Cy Young Award race is a three-man race right now between Yu Darvish, Max Fried of the Atlanta Braves, and Jacob deGrom of the New York Mets.
deGrom has been his usual dominant self in 2020, striking out 58 batters and walking just nine in 41 innings of work. Opponents are hitting a measly .185 off him and deGrom is on pace for a third-straight season of posting a sub-1.00 WHIP (currently 0.90).
Fried has been the lone constant arm in Atlanta’s rotation, currently sitting at 6-0 on the year with a 1.60 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and a near 25% strikeout rate. Through 45 innings, he has yet to surrender a single home run. What makes that number even more impressive is that he’s dominated his way through some of the game’s top home run hitting lineups, such as the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies.
But then there’s Yu Darvish. Darvish is sitting at 6-1 with an NL-best1.47 ERA for Chicago, striking out 30.8% of hitters faced and walking just 4.7%. Darvish hasn’t posted a walk rate lower than 7.4% in any of his previous seven seasons in the major leagues.
Since allowing three runs in four innings in his first start of the season against Milwaukee, Darvish hasn’t allowed more than one run in any start and has given up a total of four runs over list last 39 innings pitched.
Each of these three pitchers will have approximately five more starts this year and each one will have to be nearly flawless to take home the Cy Young hardware.
If this young shortstop wins an MLB MVP award in 2020, it won’t be his last.
American League MVP Award- Chicago White Sox 1B Jose Abreu
Picking a potential AL MVP winner is difficult, but in a much different way than picking between deGrom/Fried/Darvish or Lewis/Robert. There isn’t one name that immediately jumps off the page as a slam dunk AL MVP.
As previously mentioned, Shane Bieber certainly has a case. Nelson Cruz is hitting .328 with a .421 OBP and 13 home runs (leads AL) while sitting in second place in fWAR (1.8) behind Anthony Rendon, but will the voters be willing to give this award to a designated hitter?
You can also throw in New York’s Luke Voit (183 wRC+, 1.4 fWAR, 13 HR, 1.068 OPS), Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe (.953 OPS, 10 HR, 1.6 fWAR), and of course Mike Trout as possible contenders. One really hot week of play over these final three weeks of the regular season could be enough to separate from the pack.
But don’t count out Chicago’s Jose Abreu. Abreu has played in 36 of his team’s 37 games, which leads all White Sox players, and leads the team in home runs (12), RBI (32), runs scored (25), ISO (.313), and slugging percentage (.626), He’s also hitting .313 with a .357 OBP and a 163 wRC+.
As of August 2nd, he’s riding a 15-game hit streak. Over that stretch, he leads MLB in home runs (9) and is slashing .403/.448/.919 with a 262 wRC+.
The 33-year-old has finished in the top ten of MVP voting just once (4th in 2014 when he won Rookie of the Year), but the three-time All-Star has been one of the more consistent offensive threats in baseball over the last seven years.
Abreu is now the veteran leader, and statistical leader, on a fast-rising Chicago White Sox who currently sits in second place in the AL Central and holds a playoff spot.
National League MVP Award- San Diego Padres SS Fernando Tatis Jr.
Electric. Intoxicating. Thrilling. Take your pick of an adjective to describe the play of Fernando Tatis Jr.this year and it still won’t accurately portray what Tatis Jr has been able to do on the field in 2020.
One of the great young superstars of MLB, Tatis leads the NL in home runs (13), RBI (33), runs scored (38), and fWAR (2.6). He also owns a .313/.395/.660 slash line with eight doubles, two triples, and a 178 wRC+.
Tatis is on pace to blow away his home run total (22) and fWAR (3.6) from last season in which he played in only 84 games due to injury. He’s played in 37 games thus far in 2020.
With an influx of talent added to the roster at the trade deadline and the realization that a World Series run is a serious possibility for the San Diego Padres, expect Tatis Jr to feed off that energy and continue his hot-hitting ways.
Both Mike Yastrzemski and Mookie Betts have a serious case for the honor, but the way in which Fernando Tatis Jr.has changed the clubhouse and expectations for this San Diego team is unmatched. We’re far from seeing the best of Tatis.
Next. Baltimore Orioles quietly win big at the MLB trade deadline. dark
Who are your picks for the end of season MLB award winners?