New York Mets: Ranking Tom Seaver among MLB’s greatest pitchers
By Bill Felber
Career Win Probability Added
Win Probability Added is an updated version of WAR and similar in that it gauges each player’s contributions toward victory. The cautionary note regarding WPA is that it is based on play-by-play data, for which comprehensive data only exist back to 1973. Prior to that, the data is slightly less reliable, although still good.
Seaver’s career partly predates 1973; he was a rookie in 1967. Generally, though, the statistic favors him. Had the statistic existed when Seaver retired, he would have ranked third all-time in the category at 56.43 wins. Only Grove (82.99) and Spahn (57.56) would have ranked ahead of him.
Since then, three pitchers – Clemens 977.75), Greg Maddux (59.46), and Mariano Rivera (56.59) — have passed him.
Among the pitchers he ranks ahead of are Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Carl Hubbell, and Jim Palmer. The closest current pitcher to Seaver is Clayton Kershaw, 11th on the career list at 44.49, about a dozen wins behind Seaver.
A raft of Hall of Fame pitchers from pre-Seaver days – among them Bob Feller, Grover Cleveland Alexander, Whitey Ford, Bob Gibson, and Juan Marichal – rank behind Seaver.
In 1973, Seaver’s seasonal WPA was 3.92. Again, given the slim margin by which New York persevered in the NL East, that’s more than enough to see Seaver as the key to the The New York Mets World Series championship.