Philadelphia Phillies starters could be a difference maker

The Phillies recent offensive run belies a developing starting staff — finally — that could be the ultimate difference this season.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been bouncing around near the top of the runs per game list for weeks now, but another team-strength is now emerging for them. If two of their current starting pitchers improve a bit, and the other three continue to perform as they have for their past five games, Philly could very well hit the COVID playoff threshold with two of the three MLB core components in excellent shape.

The Phillies starters and offense could both be very daunting come October. Only their relief pitchers are likely to remain a question mark.

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Going into play Sept. 3, the value of the team’s current starters would dictate this ranking of the first five: Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Zach Eflin, Jake Arrieta, and Spencer Howard. This is much as was expected for about halfway through this shortened season.

The most pleasant surprise among the strong three is Wheeler. Some considered him overpaid when the Phillies awarded him a $118 million contract through 2024 in December. His career figures then were 44-38 with a 3.77 ERA and a 1.294 WHIP. He was averaging fewer than six innings a game for his career (126 games, 749.1 IP).

In seven games this summer, the right-hander is now 4-0 with a 2.20 ERA. His ’20 WHIP is now 0.215 lower than his career figure. In his past five games, opposing batters are hitting only .235 against him, and some would argue that he is the Phillies number one.

Then, however, they’d have to look at Nola’s figures, which seem to be a bit better than his numbers in ’18, when he ended up third in the Cy Young voting. This is so even in his past five games, which include a 2.2-inning clunker on Aug. 21.

In those five games, opposing hitters have put up a .159 BA. Nola’s WHIP in those games is 0.888, or 0.087 better than his seasonal figure two years ago. His ERA in his past five appearances is 1.93.

Zack Eflin, who was scheduled to pitch in the late afternoon Sept. 3, is clearly pitching with improved confidence and was 2-1 before that start. His WHIP for the last five games is 1.291, helping depress his career figure a few ticks to 1.338.

That figure includes about a year and a half of poor pitching direction by a couple of people no longer in Phillies pinstripes.

Now, after the Phillies first three starters, things become iffier, but they’re certainly not as iffy as their bullpen was before their most recent trades and changes to reinforce that unit. This means we have to discuss Arrieta, Howard, and the Phils’ sixth starter, the eternal Vince “Any Year Now” Velasquez.

Velasquez is important, unfortunately, not because of expected injuries primarily, but because of the coming Month of Double Headers. In this regard, the Phillies are in slightly worse shape than some other teams.

But let’s return to the two guys actually in the rotation, at least for the moment.

Howard is only 24, and his MLB figures are not eye-popping, but he shows promise that the Phillies aren’t willing to question so far. He is currently 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA but has pitched in only four games. He passes the “eye test” for a higher ceiling, and allegedly will eventually pitch consistently in the high 90s with his power pitches.

Arrieta is a far better-known quantity – his past five games pushed him into career game number 258. In his third year in Philly, he now has a 20-23 record and 4.44 ERA. Injuries have limited him to what will be the equivalent of about 85 percent of the games his contract suggested he should pitch — assuming no injury this month. (Yes, this shortened season has been taken into account in that calculation.)

As always, it should be noted Arrieta is a battler.

Velasquez has both started and relieved this year, taking the mound in the first inning three times and relieving twice. His best effort thus far was in his last appearance, when he made it through two innings in relief without giving up a run. However, he walked three and gave up a hit.

This 36-pitch performance was Velasquez’s career in miniature. On a good day. He has always thrown too many pitches.

The point is, though, in the remaining 28 games, all three of the concerning starters could hit hot streaks for the Phillies. If that happens, literally everybody else in MLB is in trouble.

Is it likely? Maybe not. But in the tight remaining timeframe, the third-ranked Phillies offense might well pound out enough hard-hit and well-placed balls to cover up the pitching blemishes.