Tampa Bay Rays: Has Willy Adames saved his job as the starting shortstop?
2020 was a big year for Willy Adames. Has he been able to save his job as the starting Tampa Bay Rays shortstop with a top prospect waiting in the wings?
The Tampa Bay Rays have been one of the major pleasant surprises in MLB this year as they now lead the AL East with about two weeks left to play in the regular season. One of their biggest contributors this season has been shortstop Willy Adames who, at just 25-years-old, came into 2020 facing a crossroads.
The Rays are a franchise known mostly for their pitching. And what this team has been able to do on the mound this season despite the multitude of injuries their staff has faced just goes to show you how deep this organization is in its pitching depth.
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But what goes under-the-radar about the Rays is the fact that they have the number one prospect in all of baseball waiting in the wings in shortstop Wander Franco, a switch hitter.
Franco is just 19-years-old at the moment, but he is projected to be brought up some time in 2021, making him an extremely fats riser in the Rays organization. The problem the Rays now face is what to do with Willy Adames, still just 25.
That’s what made 2020 such a big year for Adames because he has the number one prospect in the game lurking behind him, ready to come up next year. But at the same time, Adames has a lot of game left to be played in his young career.
Adames is not making this decision easy on the Rays. It would’ve been one thing had Adames continued along the lines of being a mid .260s hitter. But Adames has actually been one of the major leaders of this Rays ball club in 2020.
For most of 2020, Adames has been hitting in the upper .290s with an OPS in the mid 900s. Not only that, but according to Baseball Savant, Adames is in the 75th percentile in hard-hit percentage and 64th percentile in exit velocity.
Two factors for Adames
Two things are going to stand out about Adames that are going to either make him or break him as the potential starting shortstop of this Tampa Bay Rays team for the foreseeable future.
First and foremost, Adames is doing absolutely abysmal in the strikeout department. He strikes out way too much. 153 punch-outs last year.
This year, Baseball Savant has him in the 4th percentile for K-rate in the league as well as the 7th percentile for whiff percentage. Striking out has found a home in today’s game for position players, but among active shortstops, Adames is the third-worst in baseball in strikeouts behind only Javier Baez and Adalberto Mondesi.
The other major factor that will go into deciding what to do with Adames is how good the Tampa Bay Rays feel he is defensively. I gathered together pretty much every starting shortstop in the game right now and compared Adames’ defensive success rate and estimated success rate at the shortstop position to theirs by way of Baseball Savant’s fielding section.
In 2020 (as of September 14, 2020), we have:
- Willy Adames- 83% success/87% estimated success
- Corey Seager– 82% success/85% estimated success
- Gleyber Torres– 87% success/89% estimated success
- Jorge Polanco– 84% success/83% estimated success
- Francisco Lindor– 91% success/88% estimated success
- Marcus Semien– 88% success/90% estimated success
- Tim Anderson– 82% success/85% estimated success
- Fernando Tatis Jr.– 88% success/88% estimated success
- Didi Gregorius– 93% success/92% estimated success
- Xander Bogaerts– 85% success/85% estimated success
- Paul DeJong– 84% success/89% estimated success
- Carlos Correa– 89% success/89% estimated success
- Dansby Swanson– 88% success/88% estimated success
- Bo Bichette– 83% success/90% estimated success
- Javier Baez– 89% success/87% estimated success
- Andrelton Simmons– 88% success/89% estimated success
- Adalberto Mondesi– 92% success/90% estimated success
- Niko Goodrum– 93% success/89% estimated success
- Trea Turner– 88% success/86% estimated success
- Trevor Story– 89% success/86% estimated success
- Amed Rosario– 87% success/83% estimated success
- Elvis Andrus– 85% success/88% estimated success
- Nick Ahmed– 90% success/88% estimated success
- Brandon Crawford– 91% success/87% estimated success
In 2019, we had:
- Willy Adames- 87% success/86% estimated success
- Corey Seager- 88% success/87% estimated success
- Gleyber Torres- 87% success/89% estimated success
- Jorge Polanco- 83% success/87% estimated success
- Francisco Lindor- 88% success/85% estimated success
- Marcus Semien- 88% success/88% estimated success
- Tim Anderson- 85% success/85% estimated success
- Fernando Tatis Jr.- 83% success/88% estimated success
- Didi Gregorius- 82% success/90% estimated success
- Xander Bogaerts- 88% success/89% estimated success
- Paul DeJong- 91% success/89% estimated success
- Carlos Correa- 89% success/84% estimated success
- Dansby Swanson- 89% success/88% estimated success
- Bo Bichette- 86% success/89% estimated success
- Javier Baez- 88% success/84% estimated success
- Andrelton Simmons- 93% success/88% estimated success
- Adalberto Mondesi- 90% success/89% estimated success
- Niko Goodrum- 93% success/89% estimated success
- Trea Turner- 89% success/88% estimated success
- Trevor Story- 91% success/88% estimated success
- Amed Rosario- 86% success/87% estimated success
- Elvis Andrus- 86% success/85% estimated success
- Nick Ahmed- 90% success/87% estimated success
- Brandon Crawford- 85% success/86% estimated success
By the looks of these comparisons, it’s fair to say Adames is very middle-tier in the league, maybe even towards the bottom among starting shortstops. He’s negative four this year and was plus-one last year in percentage points of success rates.
In 2020, he’s about where Paul DeJong, Corey Seager, Tim Anderson, and Elvis Andrus are, though DeJong is a fluke because he was fantastic last year, defensively. Last year, Adames was in the same ballpark as Andrus and Seager once again.
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I’d also have to imagine based on the eye test that he’s better than the likes of Amed Rosario, Jorge Polanco, and Gleyber Torres at the position even though it appears the numbers say otherwise. Adames is middle of the road- right about where guys like Seager, Andrus, Anderson, and Xander Bogaerts are, defensively.
Based on those defensive comps, he should be a starting shortstop in this league, but what’s going against him is that guys like Tim Anderson are winning batting titles, Xander Bogaerts is competing for MVPs, Corey Seager and Elvis Andrus are both in the top 82nd (Seager) and 90th (Andrus) percentiles in K-rate this year, and Seager is absolutely demolishing it right now ranking in the 98th percentile in exit velocity, 99th percentile in hard-hit percentage, 100th percentile in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG, and the 96th percentile in barrel percentage.
In conclusion…
Coming into writing this article, I was very intrigued as to whether or not the numbers would add up to what I originally had thought that Adames was playing his way into keeping his job. But after I delved deep into the numbers like a nerd, it’s apparent that even though Willy Adames is a big force in this Rays lineup this year, it appears as though Wander Franco’s inevitable presence is going to kick Adames out of his starting shortstop role.
That doesn’t go to say it’s “sayonara” to Adames in a Tampa Bay Rays uniform. The Rays have team control over him next year and then Adames will be eligible for arbitration in 2022 through 2024 before becoming a free agent in 2025.
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Based on what he’s shown this year, which I believe has been pretty good stuff outside of his high strikeout rate, I think he fits into the future plans of this Rays offense. Remember, the Rays move guys around the field like no other team does in baseball right now. Third base and second base seem awfully attractive if a guy like Wander Franco is going to come up next year and lockdown shortstop. Adames has a really good arm, so third base might not be such a bad experiment.
Has Willy Adames saved his job as the starting shortstop of the Rays for years to come? I would say no. It was a valiant effort. He really stepped up this year and became one of the leaders in this Ray lineup, but once Franco is ready to come up, they’re going to have to find another spot for Adames. he still belongs in the lineup in my opinion. Maybe just not a starter over the number one prospect in baseball’s position.