The Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals meet for five games with the fates of six teams at stake.
The post-season fates of as many as a half dozen teams are riding on a single final-weekend series. When the Milwaukee Brewers arrive in St. Louis Thursday evening to play five games against the St. Louis Cardinals, it will be with one – and probably only one – post-season spot on the line.
Milwaukee must first wrap up a series against the Cincinnati Reds Wednesday, so they’ll hit St. Louis either 28-27 or 27-28. Either way, if they lose three or more of those five games with the Cardinals, the absolute best they can do is finish 30-30.
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Since the Brewers are presently eighth among the NL’s post-season teams, they probably need to do better than that to elevate themselves into playoff contention.
If, on the other hand, they can beat the Reds and win at least three games against the Cardinals, Milwaukee would stand at 31-29. More importantly from their standpoint, the Cards would add three more defeats to their record, leaving them at 29-28 pending the outcomes of their Wednesday game with the Kansas City Royals. That would mean the Cardinals would have to beat the Royals and sweep a Monday doubleheader makeup with the Detroit Tigers just to move back ahead of the Brewers.
Beyond that, if either the Brewers or Cardinals win four of the five – or sweeps – they’re in and the other guys are somewhere between moribund and dead.
The implications of the series between the Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals.
The Reds, 28-28, are currently the league’s eighth seed. That means they are staring at a first round date against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
If the Reds can parley wins in three of their final four games – against the Brewers Wednesday and a three-game series with the Twins at Target Field – they can come home 31-29. If Milwaukee wins its five-game series with the Cardinals, they would also finish 31-29.
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That scenario makes the outcome of Wednesday night’s game versus the Reds potentially pivotal since a Cincinnati victory throws the head-to-head series their way 6-4. That could elevate the Reds two places in the seeding structure, likely throwing them against the Chicago Cubs rather than the Dodgers.
The playoff fates of the San Francisco Giants and – to a lesser likelihood the Philadelphia Phillies – could also be shaped by the Milwaukee-St. Louis series.
San Francisco is 27-27 with six games remaining: Wednesday and Thursday versus the Rockies followed by a three-day, four-game season closer against the San Diego Padres. All six are to be played in San Francisco.
If the Giants can win four of those six, they too would finish at 31-29,
The Phillies, 27-29, plainly need more help. They play Wednesday in Washington and conclude with three games against the Rays in St. Petersburg, so the absolute best they can do is 31-29. But they retain hope, especially if the Cardinals can finish off the Brewers, the Giants lose three of their final six and the Reds only split with the Brewers and Twins.
As long a shot as it is, that combo would still get the Phillies in.
But for all of those teams, the pivotal series is taking place in St. Louis. If the Brewers lose they’re certainly eliminated, and if the Cardinals lose they probably are.
The Reds and Giants must first take care of their own business before scoreboard-watching too closely. But if they do, Cincinnati would be greatly advantaged by a Brewers series victory – which would probably allow them to leapfrog the Cardinals.
The Giants, meanwhile, will be rooting just as hard for the Cardinals to take down Milwaukee, removing one significant impediment to their playoff chances.