Is the Cincinnati Reds Pitching Staff World Series Bound?
![CINCINNATI, OH - SEPTEMBER 14: Trevor Bauer #27 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches against the Pittsburgh Pirates during game one of a doubleheader at Great American Ball Park on September 14, 2020 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Jamie Sabau/Getty Images)](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_fill,w_752,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/shape/cover/sport/535644939a8ef72c5a029ae5dffddc5de47506084f9b54c6b6163953e5841bf4.jpg)
![Joey Votto and Eugenio Suarez of the Cincinnati Reds (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/761d35a0f7811ea56a59b8892f1839bec5019c93e5a53a9a672e3671b3150fe5.jpg)
The Cincinnati Reds currently sit as the eighth and final seed in the NL postseason standings.
Currently, the Cincinnati Reds are close to a .500 ballclub at 29-28, sitting third in the NL Central Division but as the eighth seed in the expanded NL postseason standings. Besides the expanded postseason format and Wild Card spot, how are the Reds in contention for a postseason berth?
An easy answer to this question: phenomenal pitching.
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Ace Trevor Bauer leads the way for Cincinnati’s pitching staff. Bauer, one of the favorites to take home the NL Cy Young Award, completed another memorable outing on Wednesday. Pitching on three days’ rest, in the middle of a heated postseason race, Bauer delivered with eight innings, 12 strikeouts, and one earned run.
All against the Milwaukee Brewers, the team trailing Cincinnati by just one game for the final seed in the postseason.
With this gritty performance, Bauer moved to 5-4, lowered his ERA to 1.73, and took control of the best ERA amongst starting pitchers in baseball.
The rest of the staff may not pitch at this Cy Young Award-level, but this staff is deep and full of flamethrowers. As a whole, Cincinnati leads the league in strikeouts with 569. On the flip side, the Reds have struggled mightily at the plate this season.
But, as we all know, pitching wins in the postseason. This begs the question. Can Cincinnati’s pitching staff propel this squad to championship aspirations?
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How good, really, is the Cincinnati Reds pitching staff really?
Having a potential Cy Young winner on the staff puts the Reds in a good starting position when analyzing the pitching staff. As mentioned previously, the staff is full of pitchers with filthy stuff and a proven ability to strike batters out.
Of the remaining starting pitchers, Luis Castillo owns a 2.86 ERA while striking out 11.6 batters per nine innings. Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle both pitch to sub- 4.00 ERAs while striking out more than 12 batters per nine.
Luis Castillo in the month of September:
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) September 22, 2020
🔴 4-0
🔴 1.26 ERA
🔴 33 K
🔴 .163 opponents' batting average pic.twitter.com/88PezqS6vx
Anthony DeSclafani rounds out the starting rotation. He’s struggled this year, but the Reds are poised to turn to a four-man rotation come October. Especially after Bauer’s brilliance on short rest last night.
The bullpen is another bright spot. Nate Jones was designated for assignment on Tuesday, leaving Cincinnati with five bullpen arms that have seen at least 10 games in 2020. Collectively, those five relief pitchers own a 3.78 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.
Closer Raisel Iglesias is 8-for-10 in save opportunities pitching to a 3.05 ERA while lefty Amir Garrett has been the best arm in the pen. Garrett has struck out 24 batters in less than 18 innings pitching to a 2.55 ERA in 19 appearances.
Amir Garrett, Mean 87mph Slider...and Pitching with 🔥 pic.twitter.com/cBhbJNZouI
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 16, 2020
Cincinnati’s entire pitching staff ranks top-10 in the league in almost every statistical category. According to Baseball-Reference, the team ranks first in strikeouts (569), second in opponent batting average (.214), second in hits allowed (378), sixth in WHIP (1.22), seventh in runs allowed (231), and ninth in team ERA (3.85).
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Comparing the Cincinnati Reds pitching staff to all-time World Series winners.
The stats prove that Cincinnati owns one of the best pitching staffs in baseball this year. That being said, where do these stats rank the Reds amongst all-time World Series winners?
For this pitching staff, the ERA is arguably the most concerning number. Since the Modern Era of baseball began in 1900, only 21 teams have pitched to a team ERA of 3.85 or higher. The last team to do so was the 2019 Washington Nationals, who owned a 4.28 team ERA. It’s safe to say that Nationals won last year’s championship largely with their bats.
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Baseball stat junkies will declare that team ERA is not sufficient in analyzing a team’s pitching performance. This bodes well for the 2020 Reds. In recent years, WHIP and strikeouts per nine innings have carried far more weight for statisticians.
Of World Series winners in the modern era, only 31 teams rank better in WHIP than Cincinnati. And of these occurrences, 13 took place before 1920 when pitching weighed far more important than success at the plate.
The Reds pitch to a 1.22 WHIP, which ranks similarly to the 1986 New York Mets, the 1978 New York Yankees, and the 1940 Reds. All of these teams won at least 100 regular-season games before winning a title.
Strikeouts bode even better for Cincinnati’s title hopes. Currently, the Reds staff averages a league-leading 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings. In the Modern Era, no World Series winner has ever averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine. Only three teams have averaged at least nine strikeouts per nine, all in the last three years.
The 2019 Houston Astros are the only team with at least 10 strikeouts per nine innings to even win the pennant.
Another statistic to keep an eye out, especially in today’s era of the home run, is home runs allowed per nine innings. The Reds allow 1.3 homers per nine. Only the 2019 Nationals and 1987 Minnesota Twins allowed that same clip en route to a World Series title.
While Cincinnati’s pitching staff may be worthy of a World Series appearance, the staff doesn’t act alone. Unfortunately for the Reds, a lack of offense is the sole reason this team is only one game above .500 baseball.
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The Cincinnati Reds offense won’t lead the way.
It’s true, pitching does win in the postseason. But, maybe the saying should be: pitching helps, but you need some sort of success at the plate.
And in 2020, the Reds have been terrible at the plate. The Reds rank 28th in baseball with a dismal 3.96 runs scored per game. The only teams trailing Cincinnati? The Texas Rangers and Pittsburgh Pirates, who both sit nearly 20 games under .500 baseball.
Cincinnati is dead last in the league in batting average (.211), 25th in team RBIs (216), and 22nd in OBP (.313). Oddly enough, the Reds live up to the 2020 baseball moniker of “home runs or bust.” The Reds rank seventh in home runs while dead last in hits. As a result, Cincinnati’s slugging percentage and OPS rank middle of the pack.
About to say bang so loud right now! pic.twitter.com/hsxJ17JIhY
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) September 23, 2020
Yet, the runs scored per game is a huge concern. In the Wild Card Era since 1995, when hitting took over baseball, there has never been a pennant winner that scores less than four runs per game at the plate. Similarly, every pennant winner has also hit at least .240 at the plate.
The 2015 Mets were the worst hitting team to earn a World Series appearance in that time, averaging a .244 batting average. Of course, this Mets team did not win the World Series that year and is largely remembered for its pitching staff with Noah Syndergaard and Matt Harvey.
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All in all, the Reds pitching staff has been a revelation in 2020. This pitching staff is definitely one of the best in the game but will need to be close to perfect to carry this dismal offense to the World Series.