Is the Cincinnati Reds Pitching Staff World Series Bound?

The Cincinnati Reds currently sit as the eighth and final seed in the NL postseason standings.

Currently, the Cincinnati Reds are close to a .500 ballclub at 29-28, sitting third in the NL Central Division but as the eighth seed in the expanded NL postseason standings. Besides the expanded postseason format and Wild Card spot, how are the Reds in contention for a postseason berth?

An easy answer to this question: phenomenal pitching.

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Ace Trevor Bauer leads the way for Cincinnati’s pitching staff. Bauer, one of the favorites to take home the NL Cy Young Award, completed another memorable outing on Wednesday. Pitching on three days’ rest, in the middle of a heated postseason race, Bauer delivered with eight innings, 12 strikeouts, and one earned run.

All against the Milwaukee Brewers, the team trailing Cincinnati by just one game for the final seed in the postseason.

With this gritty performance, Bauer moved to 5-4, lowered his ERA to 1.73, and took control of the best ERA amongst starting pitchers in baseball.

The rest of the staff may not pitch at this Cy Young Award-level, but this staff is deep and full of flamethrowers. As a whole, Cincinnati leads the league in strikeouts with 569. On the flip side, the Reds have struggled mightily at the plate this season.

But, as we all know, pitching wins in the postseason. This begs the question. Can Cincinnati’s pitching staff propel this squad to championship aspirations?

How good, really, is the Cincinnati Reds pitching staff really?

Having a potential Cy Young winner on the staff puts the Reds in a good starting position when analyzing the pitching staff. As mentioned previously, the staff is full of pitchers with filthy stuff and a proven ability to strike batters out.

Of the remaining starting pitchers, Luis Castillo owns a 2.86 ERA while striking out 11.6 batters per nine innings. Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle both pitch to sub- 4.00 ERAs while striking out more than 12 batters per nine.

Anthony DeSclafani rounds out the starting rotation. He’s struggled this year, but the Reds are poised to turn to a four-man rotation come October. Especially after Bauer’s brilliance on short rest last night.

The bullpen is another bright spot. Nate Jones was designated for assignment on Tuesday, leaving Cincinnati with five bullpen arms that have seen at least 10 games in 2020. Collectively, those five relief pitchers own a 3.78 ERA and 1.09 WHIP.

Closer Raisel Iglesias is 8-for-10 in save opportunities pitching to a 3.05 ERA while lefty Amir Garrett has been the best arm in the pen. Garrett has struck out 24 batters in less than 18 innings pitching to a 2.55 ERA in 19 appearances.

Cincinnati’s entire pitching staff ranks top-10 in the league in almost every statistical category. According to Baseball-Reference, the team ranks first in strikeouts (569), second in opponent batting average (.214), second in hits allowed (378), sixth in WHIP (1.22), seventh in runs allowed (231), and ninth in team ERA (3.85).

Comparing the Cincinnati Reds pitching staff to all-time World Series winners.

The stats prove that Cincinnati owns one of the best pitching staffs in baseball this year. That being said, where do these stats rank the Reds amongst all-time World Series winners?

For this pitching staff, the ERA is arguably the most concerning number. Since the Modern Era of baseball began in 1900, only 21 teams have pitched to a team ERA of 3.85 or higher. The last team to do so was the 2019 Washington Nationals, who owned a 4.28 team ERA. It’s safe to say that Nationals won last year’s championship largely with their bats.

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Baseball stat junkies will declare that team ERA is not sufficient in analyzing a team’s pitching performance. This bodes well for the 2020 Reds. In recent years, WHIP and strikeouts per nine innings have carried far more weight for statisticians.

Of World Series winners in the modern era, only 31 teams rank better in WHIP than Cincinnati. And of these occurrences, 13 took place before 1920 when pitching weighed far more important than success at the plate.

The Reds pitch to a 1.22 WHIP, which ranks similarly to the 1986 New York Mets, the 1978 New York Yankees, and the 1940 Reds. All of these teams won at least 100 regular-season games before winning a title.

Strikeouts bode even better for Cincinnati’s title hopes. Currently, the Reds staff averages a league-leading 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings. In the Modern Era, no World Series winner has ever averaged better than 10 strikeouts per nine. Only three teams have averaged at least nine strikeouts per nine, all in the last three years.

The 2019 Houston Astros are the only team with at least 10 strikeouts per nine innings to even win the pennant.

Another statistic to keep an eye out, especially in today’s era of the home run, is home runs allowed per nine innings. The Reds allow 1.3 homers per nine. Only the 2019 Nationals and 1987 Minnesota Twins allowed that same clip en route to a World Series title.

While Cincinnati’s pitching staff may be worthy of a World Series appearance, the staff doesn’t act alone. Unfortunately for the Reds, a lack of offense is the sole reason this team is only one game above .500 baseball.