New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Which team has the ALDS edge?
Bad blood and bragging rights will fuel the New York Yankees and the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS. Which team will come out on top?
Here we go. AL East champion against AL East runner-up. Minuscule payroll against mammoth payroll. Modified team name against an iconic team name. Bare history against illustrious history. The countless juxtapositions between the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees outline a fascinating can’t-miss ALDS matchup that is sure to reach a deciding Game 5.
But which team will win the deciding game?
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Before divulging potential “leg up” statistics, let’s devote a little more time to hyping the upcoming series.
Remember when Aroldis Chapman catapulted a 101 mph fastball at the head of Rays’ Mike Brosseau last month? Thankfully the pitch missed Brosseau, but that didn’t prevent tempers from flaring and benches from clearing.
Having perhaps the most powerful and intimidating arm in the game, Chapman should not be heaving fastballs towards any body part with any intent. We know how the Tampa Bay Rays feel about that pitch. It certainly remains top of mind throughout their clubhouse and stands firmly as bulletin board material.
The Yankees likely aren’t taking the rival ALDS matchup as personally as the Rays. They want to conquer the Rays because they’re the next team in the way of a championship. If defeating them also proves the Yankees are the better team in the AL East, then so be it.
The Rays, owners of the best regular-season record in the American League, are a serious force. While the Yankees stumbled into the playoffs and still emerge as the betting favorite to win the AL pennant, the Rays earned the top seed and then maintained their status quo by picking apart the Toronto Blue Jays in route to a series sweep in the Wildcard round.
Breaking down the first place, Tampa Bay Rays
From starters to relievers, Tampa has perhaps the best pitching staff in MLB. Their collection of mighty arms ranked third in baseball with a 3.56 ERA, sixth with a 1.22 WHIP, and sixth with 552 strikeouts.
Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Charlie Morton head a dominant rotation. Each appears in prime form as they prepare for a relentless Yankees offense. If the starters hold up their end of the bargain, then their relief core should bring the Rays home.
Manager Kevin Cash has mastered bullpen strategy. He’ll concoct a Plan A, B, C, and D seemingly for every game. Though, it’s rare that he has to move beyond Plan A because his relievers are simply that good. Get ready to see plenty of Diego Castillo, Nick Anderson, Pete Fairbanks, and Aaron Loup throughout the Yankees series.
Tampa plays fundamentally sound baseball, which is vital this time of year. Kevin Keirmaier runs the ball down in center field with the best of them; his 1.1 defensive runs saved ranked 5th in MLB this season. Their infield accounted for 0.85 double plays turned per game this season, which ranked 8th in MLB.
Offensively, few names throughout the Rays lineup will pop out at you, but that doesn’t mean the lineup as a whole struggles to produce. Tampa finished 12th in baseball in runs scored with 289. Their OBP ranked 11th, and their home run total ranked 14th. A middle-of-the-pack offense is all they need with the pitching they possess.
Breaking down the New York Yankees
The New York Yankees mash the baseball. What’s new?
New York’s offense, while often debilitated, produced the 5th most home runs in MLB, 4th most runs, and 5th best OPS. After tallying 22 runs against the Indians over two games, including seven at the expense of Cy Young favorite Shane Bieber, the Yankees bats seem to be in tune at the right time.
Aaron Judge knocked a vintage right-center bomb off Bieber, Giancarlo Stanton blasted two homers, Gleyber Torres got going with a 5-for-8 series, and DJ LeMahieu kept going with a 3-for-10 series. Not to mention the damage Gio Urshela, Brett Gardner, and Luke Voit did. That covers nearly their entire lineup.
Gerrit Cole should be up for the task, but what version of Masahiro Tanaka will be on display against the Rays? Do the Yankees rely on 21-year-old Deivi Garcia for a key start in the series? Who can get the ball to Zack Britton and Aroldis Chapman when a starter is unable to pitch deep into the game? These are the protruding questions for the Yankees as they get ready to face a very confident Rays team.
Also, New York led baseball in fielding errors this season. Will they be able to make plays in the clutch, or will untimely mistakes cost them fiercely?
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays: Notable Team Statistics
-The Yankees hit the 5th most home runs in the regular season while the Rays allowed the 9th fewest home runs.
-Yankees hitters led MLB in walks while Rays pitchers allowed the 4th fewest free passes.
-Rays hitters totaled the most strikeouts in MLB while Yankees pitchers recorded the 11th most strikeouts.
-The Yankees hit .226 with a .715 OPS against left-handed pitchers as opposed to a .254 batting average and .811 OPS against right-handed pitchers.
-The Rays’ 2.74 ERA in the 7th inning or later was third-best in MLB; the Yankees’ 3.18 was sixth-best.
Head-to-Head
Tampa Bay won eight out of ten against New York in the regular season. They out-homered the Yankees and scored 13 more runs.
The most recent series between the two teams took place from August 31st to September 2nd. Tyler Glasnow outdueled Gerrit Cole in Game 1. Glasnow pitched six shutout innings, struck out nine, and walked one. Cole walked four and gave up for runs over five innings pitched. Tampa won 5-3.
The Yankees won Game 2 by a score of 5-3. Masahiro Tanaka allowed just two runs over six innings and DJ LeMahieu knocked two homers off Rays’ starter Trevor Richards.
Tampa Bay tagged Yankees’ starter Jordan Montgomery for four runs in the first inning of Game 3. They ended up winning 5-2 in a bullpen game in which the Yankees amassed only six hits.
Which team prevails in the ALDS: the Tampa Bay Rays or the New York Yankees?
Petco Park will host the five-game series. Petco is a known pitcher’s park that is deep in the gaps, though there is opportunity for bullet home runs down the left and right field lines.
If there is a team that benefits from the playing field, I’d say it’s the New YOrk Yankees. The Yanks have power to all fields and are the superior slugging bunch. Also, Yankees pitchers may pitch more freely being away from the tight quarters of their home ballpark.
The Rays are unlikely to match a healthy Yankees offense in quick-hit round-trippers, which means they will have to come through with runners on base. That’s often a tall task in the postseason when pitching is peaked and base runners are scarce.
The Yankees must find some success against Rays’ starting pitchers. If they allow Tampa starters stress-free opening innings, there’s a strong chance that the starters keep cruising.
We witnessed what the Yankees did to the only American League pitching staff that statistically ranks ahead of the Tampa Bay Rays – that being the Cleveland Indians.
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I predict the Yankees win the ALDS in five games. While I’m rooting for the underdog Tampa Bay Rays – and yes, they are the underdog – I believe the Yankees offense will perform well enough to take the series. They have more candidates to come up with “the big hit” than the Rays do.