MLB: Rating the front offices of the NL West

Padres exec A.J. Preller produced the best season of any MLB general manager.

For San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller, the 2020 MLB season might have been a personal justification.

Since becoming general manager prior to the start of the 2015 season. Preller has been one of the game’s most prolific front office figures, one of its most promising, and one of its most disappointing.

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Until this year, Preller’s front office had produced only one season with a positive contribution to the team’s on-field performance. That finally, and decisively changed in 2020.

The 4.4 games by which Preller’s moves improved the Padres’ talent base in 2020 was the best in MLB. Extended over the course of a normal 162-game season, it amounted to nearly 12 games, an extraordinary level of accomplishment that has not been surpassed since 2015.

Our front office ratings are based on the collective short-term impact, as measured by Wins Above Average, of every personnel move made by every front office since the conclusion of play in 2019. A positive number represents a front office success. In a few cases, those marked by an asterisk, the front office really succeeded; it generated a more positive impact than the margin by which the team qualified for post-season play.

If a rating is negative, that means the team’s front office reduced the club’s talent base during 2020. And woe betides a front office that gets an asterisk for negative performance; that means the team’s execs dealt, promoted or signed their way out of the playoffs. Those rare instances are marked by an X.

As a general proposition, front offices influence their team’s performance in five ways:

• By the players they acquire in trades, purchase, or waiver claims with other teams.
• By the players they lose in those deals.
• By the free agents they sign.
• By the players they release or lose to free agency.
• By the rookies they promote.

Findings for the other divisions in both leagues have already been reported. This analysis of the NL West front offices is not ordered on final standing, but rather on the extent of the front office’s positive or negative contribution to the team profile.

San Diego Padres

A.J. Preller, Executive VP and GM: +4.6

Preller made 47 personnel moves affecting the team’s on-field capability in 2020, several of which created a significant impact. Those involved two noteworthy trades.

On Nov. 27, Preller sent pitcher Eric Lauer and infielder Luis Urias to Milwaukee for outfielder Trent Grisham and pitcher Zach Davies. Although little-discussed at the time, it was probably the off-season’s most impactful swap. Grisham and Davies produced +1.6 and +1.1 Wins Above Average respectively for the Padres, while Urias and Lauer combined to hurt the Brewers by a total of 1.1 games.

That’s nearly a four-game swing in one gesture.

Then on Dec. 6, he acquired infielder Jake Cronenworth and outfielder Tommy Pham from Tampa Bay in exchange for Hunter Renfroe and two minor leaguers. Cronenworth became a productive infielder and Pham a useful outfielder. Reduced to a number, it amounted to a 1.1 game pickup for the Padres.

And so it went all season. Jurickson Profar, Trevor Rosenthal, and Mike Clevinger all were productive pieces who came in deals. Preller acquired 19 players in deals with other teams at a net improvement to the Padres of 3.3 games.

He traded away another 13 and picked up an additional 2.6 games by ridding the team of them.

Here is a summary of the performance of the San Diego Padres front office since 2016.

• 2016:     -1.0
• 2017:     -7.1
• 2018:     -8.4
• 2019:     -4.2
• 2020:     +4.6

Los Angeles Dodgers

Andrew Friedman, President of Baseball Ops: +1.1

When Friedman saw general manager Farhan Zaidi walk out the door for San Francisco following the 2018 season, he eschewed the normal course of hiring a replacement and absorbed the duties into his own office.

Zaidi’s residual influence remains strong within the dominant structure the Dodgers have been. Fifteen players – among them Cody Bellinger, Walker Buehler, Kenley Jansen, MaxMuncy, Joc PedersonCorey Seager, and Justin Turner – play on contracts signed during Zaidi’s administration.

But that influence is inevitably waning. Prior to and during the 2020 season,  Friedman made 22 moves impacting his team, only one-third of which produced negative value to the Dodgers. Most of those were valued players sent to other teams in exchange for even more valuable assets.

The Mookie Betts deal with Boston is a classic illustration. Betts came to Los Angeles and generated +2.9 WAA in value. He cost the Dodgers outfielder Alex Verdugo, a +1.4 player for Boston. But that still left Los Angeles a full game to the good.

The Dodgers’ 2020 rating is only modestly positive because Freidman let a substantial amount of talent walk in free agency in order to open up the cash flexibility needed to make his team financially stable. Those losses included pitchers Hyun-Jin Ryu (+2.4), Rich Hill (+0.4), and Kenta Maeda (+1.0), all of them productive for their new teams.

The Dodgers were so deep that they could write off those talent losses. Besides, the farm system produced Dustin May (+0.9) and Tony Gonsolin (+1.0) to largely offset them.

Here is a summary of the performance of the Los Angeles Dodgers front office since Andrew Friedman became president prior to the start of the 2019 season.

• 2019:     +9.4
• 2020:     +1.1

Colorado Rockies

Jeff Bridich, Senior VP and GM: -0.1

Easily Bridich’s most important move was a simple, logical one. He signed Trevor Story to an arbitration-avoiding two-year extension worth $27.5 million. Other than to the extent that Nolan Arenado is unhappy with being signed to his own eight-year, $260 million deal through 2026, that basically stabilized the Rockies’ core.

The question continues to be whether that core is good enough. Bridich made 22 moves influencing his team’s talent base, and they did almost literally nothing to change the team’s talent base. That’s a problem because this was a 71-91 team a year ago.

Aside from the signing of Story, none of the moves were especially profound.

Colorado’s rookie crop was particularly undistinguished. Bridich made use of seven first-year players in 2020, but only one of them actually helped the team. That lone productive player was infielder Josh Fuentes, who hit .306 in 103 plate appearances with 17 RBIs and a .759 OPS. That yielded a +0.7 WAA.

As a group, however, the rookies cost the Rockies 1.4 games.

Bridich was mostly a window-shopper at the trade market. He acquired only three players in trades – Kevin Pillar, Tyler Kinley, and Mychal Givens – none of whom moved the talent needed by more than two-tenths of a game.

Here is a summary of the Colorado Rockies front office since 2016.

• 2016:     +1.7
• 2017:     -1.4
• 2018:     -4.1
• 2019:     -9.3
• 2020:     -0.1

San Francisco Giants

Farhan Zaidi, President of Baseball Ops & Scott Harris, GM: -2.0 games

The Zaidi-Harris team just completed its first season. Zaidi, who arrived from Los Angeles following the 2018 season, brought in Harris following the 2019 season.

At this early stage, Zaidi has found the challenge of revitalizing the Giants tougher than his experience with the perennial division champion Dodgers. In 2020 his moves involved 34 players who produced short-term value, of which only a dozen positively impacted the Giants.

Most of the Zaidi-Harris effort focused on the free-agent market. Fifteen players arrived via free agency, including several veterans with Giant pedigrees whose signings felt more sentimental than productive. Pablo Sandoval (-0.8 WAA) was one, Hunter Pence (-0.8) was another.

Veterans Justin Smoak, Kevin Gausman, Wilmer Flores, Drew Smyly, and Trevor Cahill all signed on in the hope of revitalizing their careers in San Francisco. Several made modestly positive contributions; still, the overall impact of Zaidi’s free agent signings was -0.5 WAA.

Catcher Joey Bart was the big rookie promotion. Bart may someday be a star, but his initial contributions amounted to a .233 average and .609 OPS.

With the exception of free agent Madison Bumgarner, the departures made little impact with their new teams. Zaidi made the right calculation that Bumgarner was asking for more money than he was worth. In Arizona, Bumgarner was 1-4 with a 6.48 ERA, translating to a -0.7 WAA.