Baltimore Orioles: Looking at the 2020 non-tender candidates
As the Baltimore Orioles enter a likely quiet offseason, which of their arbitration-eligible players may be non-tendered?
For the Baltimore Orioles, the 2020 season was largely a big success on multiple fronts.
The Orioles outperformed expectations, showcased one of the top bullpens in the majors, were able to add three new Top 30 prospects to a farm system that MLB Pipeline now ranks among the top ten, and witnessed impressive rookie debuts from outfielder/first baseman Ryan Mountcastle and starting pitchers Keegan Akin and Dean Kremer.
The play on the field may not have been highly entertaining every night, but the Baltimore Orioles are clearly moving in the right direction and there are genuine reasons to be optimistic about the near future of the organization entering 2021.
Attention has now turned to the offseason, an offseason expected to be pretty quiet for the Baltimore Orioles as they continue to maintain a low payroll, evaluate a number of talents already in the majors, patiently await the arrival of the next group of prospects, and deal with the ongoing impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
After trading away relief pitchers Miguel Castro and Mychal Givens, the Orioles are down to seven arbitration-eligible players heading into the offseason, a few of whom are potentially non-tender candidates.
Let’s start with the players who will surely be tendered a contract and return in 2021.
Infielder Hanser Alberto and outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini are entering their second year of arbitration and they are no-brainers to be tendered a contract. The Orioles are pretty thin at second base and Alberto has played well the last two seasons in Baltimore. As for Mancini, his impact reaches well beyond Camden Yards and every Orioles fan is sending every positive vibe available his way in hopes of Mancini returning to the field next season after battling colon cancer.
You can also throw in Anthony Santander‘s name here. Before an oblique injury prematurely ended his 2020 campaign, Santander slashed .261/.315/.575 with 11 home runs and 13 doubles in 37 games. The switch-hitting outfielder will be back in the starting lineup for Opening Day 2021.
Baltimore Orioles 2020 non-tender candidates.
For a brief amount of time, Pedro Severino and Chance Sisco formed one of the top offensive catching units in all of baseball in 2020, but a late-season slump left both catchers limping into the offseason. Now, Severino enters the offseason as a first-year arbitration-eligible player.
It’s only a matter of time before Adley Rutschman cements himself behind the plate in Baltimore, but that won’t be in 2021. Pedro Severino is in his first year of arbitration and barring an offseason trade, he likely is not a non-tender candidate.
Since joining the Orioles as a waiver claim in 2019, he has put together back-to-back seasons with a wRC+ of 94 and has slashed .249/.321/.409 in 144 games. That’s a massive improvement from his .187/.223/.287 slash line in 105 career games with the Washington Nationals.
The toughest decision could involve designated hitter Renato Nunez. Across parts of three seasons in Baltimore, Nunez has hit 50 home runs, including 31 in 151 games last season. With his ability to hit 20+ doubles and 30+ home runs with 80+ RBI in a season, Nunez could see a solid pay raise through arbitration.
With no defensive value, a long list of younger options available to DH, and the need for roster spots in 2021, Renato Nunez is a non-tender candidate for the Orioles. Maybe, he can fetch some trade value with a permanent DH in the National League, but it’s hard to imagine any team giving up very much for Nunez.
The final two players on this list are also certain to demand more than one discussion about their future. With an injury to Jose Iglesias limiting his time at shortstop in 2020, Pat Valaika emerged as yet another Mike Elias waiver claim to provide much-needed value.
While Valaika put up some of the worst defensive numbers among all major league shortstops, Valaika did hit .277 with a .315 OBP, eight home runs, and a 112 wRC+ in 52 games. This after recording a wRC+ of 9 and 34 in 2018 and 2019 with Colorado, respectively.
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Assuming the Orioles pick up next year’s option on Jose Iglesias, notable play from Ramon Urias and the return of a healthy Richie Martin in 2021 provides a notable upgrade defensively for Baltimore and a possible trade or non-tendering of Valaika.
Finally, there’s relief pitcher Shawn Armstrong. Injuries limited his time on the mound in 2020, but Armstrong has been one of the more over-looked pitchers on this Baltimore Orioles roster over the last two seasons.
The 30-year-old righty struck out 25% of hitters he faced this season, cut his walk rate in half compared to 2019, and saw his groundball rate jump from 30% to 44% while posting a 1.80 ERA and .170 batting average against in 14 outings.
Baltimore’s bullpen, while good, is young and having a reliable veteran arm who can go more than one inning if necessary would be an asset next season. Odds are that Shawn Armstrong returns in 2021, but if he pitches as well as he did in 2020 next season, don’t be surprised to see the Orioles try and make another move similar to the types of deals made for Castro and Givens.
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There aren’t any arbitration-eligible players who you can point to and say for sure that they won’t be tendered a contract this offseason, but the Baltimore Orioles will have to take long looks at some of the names on this list and make a few tough decisions.