Houston Astros: Karma getting its revenge in ALCS vs. Rays

The Houston Astros’ ALCS Game 2 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays defied the numbers

The Houston Astros are now down 2-0 in the American League Championship Series against the Tampa Bay Rays. More remarkably, they’ve lost those two games despite out-playing the Rays both times.

Only one conclusion logically follows: Karma has it in for the Sign-Stealers.

Don’t believe it? Just look at the data. Through the first two games of the ALCS, the Astros have nearly twice as many hits (19-10), more total bases (26-21), and more walks (7-5).

They’ve also hit the ball harder. Astros hitters have propelled 13 pitches away from home plate at velocities in excess of 100 mph; Rays hitters have only 10 such high-velocity experiences. The average Astro contact has been about 90 mph, about three miles per hour faster than the average Rays batter has generated.

And that’s when the Rays batters actually hit the ball, which has been far less frequently. Astros pitchers have recorded 26 strikeouts through those first two games, twice as many as the Tampa Bay staff’s 13.

In the face of all that data, to ask yourself how this series isn’t 2-0 in Houston’s favor – rather than the other way around – is to come to only one conclusion: the baseball gods are angry with the Astros.

It didn’t take more than an inning or two Monday for this conclusion to become obvious. With runners at first and third and one out, Alex Bregman shot a 106.8 mph line drive in the direction of left field … only to watch Rays shortstop Willy Adames intercept it for an out. The Astros failed to score.

With a runner aboard and two out in the bottom of the same inning, Ji-Man Choi sent a ground ball to Jose Altuve, stationed in short right field. Altuve had all the time he needed to throw out Choi and end the inning, but he short-hopped the throw, which bounced away from first baseman Yuli Gurriel for an error.

This may be an appropriate moment to note that the Astros led the majors in fielding percentage this season.

Karma.

Then karma multiplied itself. Manuel Margot followed Altuve’s misplay with a three-run bomb over the center field wall. The Rays had all the runs they would need.

But the fates weren’t through messing with the Astros. In the second inning, Carlos Correa lashed another line drive that Adames intercepted. Gurriel singled, and one out later Martin Maldonado crashed a line drive into left field. As the ball one-hopped its way toward the wall, it seemed certain to score Gurriel. Until, that is, the ball actually bounced over the wall, forcing Gurriel to stop at third.

The next batter, George Springer, lofted a fly ball toward the right-field foul line that Margot raced for. Crossing into foul territory, he caught the ball just as his midsection struck the railing, sending Margot tumbling to the concrete six feet below.

He somehow emerged uninjured and with the ball. Try doing that yourself and saying that fate didn’t play a role in his catch. Had Margot made exactly the same play with one out, Gurriel – and possibly Maldonado at second — would have tagged and scored easily.

But it happened with two out, and Margot held on to the ball. Inning over. Threat over.

Starting the fifth, Altuve sent a 93 mph shot toward left only to see third baseman Joey Wendle make a diving stop, recover and throw him out. Then Adames intercepted yet another Bregman grounder, this one clocking 103 mph.

And just to cement fate’s role in the outcome, with the bases full, none out and Tampa clinging to a 4-1 lead, Springer shot a one-hopper to Brandon Lowe, who turned it into a double play. Representing the go-ahead run, Bregman powered a 98.4 mph line drive to deep center, where Kevin Kiermaier ran under it for the clincher.

From start to finish, Adames, Tampa Bay’s shortstop, functioned as the human hand of fate. Astros batters slammed four balls in his direction. The average exit velocity of those four plays was 101.4 mph. The four plays resulted in no hits and four outs.

One thing was clear coming out of Monday’s 4-2 Rays victory. If the Astros win this series, they’ll have to beat the Rays … and also the bad karma their sign-stealing generated against them.