MLB: The 2020 leaders in “True Exit Velocity”

We have fixed a flawed statistic to find out which players around MLB are truly hitting the ball the hardest.

Exit Velocity is one of the most looked-at of the various “new” statistics by which MLB fans judge player talent.

The reason is simple: The ability to consistently hit the ball hard is one of the most coveted of the game’s skills. It’s equivalent to a pitcher’s fastball velocity; a natural talent that gives those who can produce high exit velocities a decided advantage over their less blessed colleagues.

During the just completed 2020 season, for example, San Diego Padres shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. had the highest average exit velocity of any player who made enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title.

The stat services credit Tatis with an average exit velocity of 95.9 mph. That’s well above the MLB average, which is in the mid to high 80s.

But as presently calculated, exit velocity has an obvious and serious shortcoming: It only measures the velocities of balls that are actually hit. The formula includes no calculation for balls that are not hit – strikeouts.

That’s a significant weakness because year after year, the percentage of at bats ending in an exit velocity of zero continues to rise. In 2020, for instance, more than one-quarter of all official at bats ended in a strikeout. Exit Velocity chooses to pretend that those strikeouts never occurred.

Take Tatis, for example. His average Exit Velocity is based on the 196 times he put the ball in play. But Tatis actually had 257 official at bats in 2020; he struck out 61 times. That’s nearly 24 percent of the time.

There’s an easy and obvious fix. I call it “True Exit velocity.” Simply amend the present formula to include a 0.0 for each time a batter failed to put a ball in play. When you do that for Tatis, his 95.9 mph exit velocity becomes a more realistic and more meaningful 73.14 mph.

Here is a list of the 10 major leaguers with the highest exit velocities during 2020 as calculated by the present formula.  Also included is their “True Exit Velocity,” plus what their ranking would be if the formula for exit velocity was adapted.

           Player                                  EV           True EV (rank)

1. Fernando Tatis Jr.             95.9        73.14 (37)
2. Miguel Sano                      95.2        53.40 (142)
3. Christian Yelich                 94.0        65.08 (118)
4. Mike Trout                          93.7        65.08 (52)
5. Teoscar Hernandez         93.3         64.90 (121)
6. Corey Seager                     93.2        78.34 (8)
7. Miguel Cabrera                 93.2        72.62 (44)
8. Marcell Ozuna                   93.0        72.10 (50)
9. Rafael Devers                    93.0        72.10 (94)
10. Jose Abreu                         92.9         71.98 (51)

Notice that of the top 10 in exit velocity, only one remains among the top 10 for True Exit Velocity. Not to pick on Miguel Sano, but he falls 140 places when strikeouts are factored into the exit velocity equation, from virtually the top to literally the bottom of the 142-player list. Everybody knows that Christian Yelich had a bad season — he struck out 31 percent of the time — but in the flawed calculus of exit velocity Yelich supposedly had the third-best season in all of MLB.

Let’s take a look at how the list appears when strikeouts are factored into the formula. This more accurate list provides a greatly different perspective of who’s really making consistent strong contact at bat.

Nos. 8, 9 and 10

10. Vlad Guerrero Jr. had 243 official at bats in helping the Toronto Blue Jays reach the expanded 2020 playoffs. As calculated under the existing formula, his 92.5 mph exit velocity ranked 12th among all qualifying major leaguers.

By the standards of sluggers, Guerrero was a relatively reliable contact guy. He fanned 38 times, but that only represented 15 percent of his official at bats. So his “True Exit Velocity” only declined less than 15 mph, to 78.03 mph.

9. Los Angeles Angels free agent acquisition Anthony Rendon ranked only 42nd in exit velocity at 90.1 mph. He achieved that in 201 official at bats in which Rendon contacted the ball.

Like Guerrero and the other players in this revised top 10, Rendon was – by modern standards – something of a contact machine. He fanned 31 times, but that only represented only 13 percent of his official at bats.

That translates to a 78.06 mph “True Exit Velocity,” elevating Rendon 33 places on the list.

8. As noted above, Dodger infielder Corey Seager ranks high on both exit velocity and True Exit Velocity; in fact, he is the only player to attain top 10 status on both lists.

Seager produced a 93.2 mph average exit velocity in his 195 plate appearances that ended in contact. That tied him with Miguel Cabrera for sixth place.

He combined that with a relatively low 15.9 percent strikeout rate to finish with a “True Exit Velocity” of 78.34 mph, about a 15 mph decline.

Nos. 5, 6 and 7

Houston Astro first baseman Yuli Gurriel ranked only 60th in exit velocity during 2020. That was based on an average 89.3 mph departure speed for his 203 official at bats that ended in contact.

But Gurriel supplemented that with a low strikeout rate. He fanned only 27 times in 203 MLB at bats, whiffing only 11.7 percent of the time. As a result, his “True Exit Velocity” only declined to 70.82 mph, better than all but six major leaguers.

6. Juan Soto’s Washington Nationals had a bad post-championship season, but it was not Soto’s fault. His average 92.1 mph exit velocity ranked 19th in 2020.

Even better Soto only struck out 28 times in 196 official at bats, a 14.3 percent whiff rate. As a result, his “True Exit Velocity” averaged 78.94 mph, the game’s sixth best performance.

5. Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado made the biggest ascent on this revised list of any player.

Based on the official stats, Arenado had an ordinary season. His exit velocity averaged just 87.8 mph, ranking him 102nd among the 142 qualifiers.

But exit velocity did Arenado a great injustice. He only struck out 20 times all season, a 10 percent rate. As a result, his “True Exit Velocity” only declined by about 9 mph, to 79.06 mph.

Nos.  3 and 4

4. Those who only tune in to MLB for the post-season are learning what real fans have known for some time: Freddie Freeman can hit.

The Atlanta Braves first baseman was credited with a 92.4 mph exit velocity in 2020, ranking him 14th overall. But even that number did Freeman an injustice. Considering that Freeman only struck out 37 times in 262 official at bats – a 14 percent whiff rate – Freeman’s “True Exit Velocity” is even higher. He ranks fourth in all of MLB at 79.35 mph.

3. This was a miserable season for the Arizona Diamondbacks, whose revamped pitching staff collapsed, causing a retreat into last place in the NL West.

One of Arizona’s few bright spots was probably infielder Ketel Marte. His .287 average did not especially stand out, but his 89.2 mph exit velocity suggests that Marte at least hit the ball relatively hard. He ranked 64th overall in exit velocity.

But when Marte’s contact rate is factored in, he looks even better still. In 195 official at bats, he fanned only 21 times, a 10.7 percent strikeout rate that was well below current norms. That helped elevate Marte’s “True Exit Velocity” to 79.5 mph. In all of MLB in 2020, only six players saw less than a 10 mph difference between their exit velocities and their True Exit Velocities. Marte was one of them.

Nos. 1 and 2

Baseball experts do not give Yankee second baseman D J LeMahieu enough credit as a hitter. Part of the reason is that LeMahieu plays in the shadow of all that Yankee muscle: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, etc., etc.,  etc.

That batting title LeMahieu won this season began to make up for that historical lack of attention. And the batting title, in turn, was built on LeMahieu’s uncanny ability to put the ball in play hard.

His 91.3 mph exit velocity was good, although it only ranked 25th in MLB. That was based on 195 official at bats in which LeMahieu put bat to ball.

He did that quite often. LeMahieu only struck out 21 times, a 9.7 percent strikeout rate. The ability to pound a ball into fair territory meant LeMahieu’s “True Exit Velocity” only declined by about 8.9 mph, to 82.42 mph. He was one of only two qualifying players to achieve a True Exit Velocity in excess of 80 mph.

1. The Oakland Athletics thought enough of infielder Tommy LaStella to acquire him from the Angels in mid-season. LaStella’s reputation is as a filler piece, a competent slash hitter who doesn’t fan much and doesn’t hit for much power either.

LaStella’s 88  mph exit velocity testifies to his reputation as an average hitter. It ranked him only 97th among 2020 qualifiers.

But couple that with his contact reliability and you have something else again. In his 228 official at bats, LaStella put the ball in play all but 12 times, a sensational 94.7 percent contact rate. That meant that LaStella’s “True Exit Velocity” differed hardly at all from his listed exit velocity. At 83.37 mph, it declined a minuscule 4.63 mph.

And that in turn made the often overlooked middle infielder MLB’s most reliable hard hitter in 2020 when all official at bats – not merely those ending in bat-to-ball contact – are factored in.