Phillies: Considering their real off-season needs now
The Philadelphia Phillies have to completely revamp their bullpen if they are going to contend. Let’s look at some potential free agent options.
Among Philadelphia Phillies fans there is a mushy but growing concern that their declining team will not re-sign J.T. Realmuto, the current Michael Jordan of MLB catchers. This sentiment in print is sometimes attached by a hyperlink (or two) to an Oct. 3 article by Todd Zolecki, in which the Phillies Managing Partner, John Middleton, was said to “not sound optimistic” about re-signing the All-Star backstop.
No one really knows, though. Maybe the team is working up an offer that would allow Realmuto to declare himself the per annum-salary catchers’ all-time leader, but maybe for a shorter period than he’d ideally prefer. However, knowing Philadelphia sports, let’s assume the Fightin’ .500s won’t keep Realmuto. What is their next move since they’re surely planning to field a team next spring?
If you’re scratching your head, you really haven’t been paying attention to the Phillies. Their bullpen in 2020 was the worst defensive group in history since those Jin Dynasty guys who tried to stop Genghis Khan.
So, in the spirit of fix-your-first-problem-first, it says here that the bullpen is the Phillies’ first priority this winter – otherwise, things could devolve into a three-year losing battle, like that war in northern China way back when.
The only guy the Phillies really need to re-sign from this year’s bullpen is Jose Alvarez, the guy who was hit in the testicles with a line-drive late in the season, when he wasn’t wearing a cup. Assuming he’s OK, of course. If he’s OK, he’s effective.
They need to replace all the rest, not that this will happen as such. But the first three guys the Phillies need to sign this off-season are all relief pitchers.
Really. (Didi Gregorius must be re-signed too, and he can be literally first if need be, but then the next three must be relievers.)
A lot of money is coming off the Phillies payroll total this winter, approximately $60 million. Therefore, all three of the following pitchers can be somewhat overpaid, and they should be happy about that since none are “spring chickens.” Their deals should be done quickly.
Here are the humble suggestions…
Liam Hendriks
An expressive Australian who will be 32 for the 2021 season, Liam Hendriks has a fastball now in the mid-nineties, and he has finally hit his stride in the last two years. His ERA figure for that period is 1.79, and his WHIP has been a very impressive 0.897. This followed 4.72 and 1.372 figures over eight years.
Now, some Phillies fans might be saying, “Ah, jeez – 32 – another over-the-hill guy,” but the fact is Hendriks has only 516-plus innings on his arm after ten years in MLB. Also, the figures above do not suggest over-the-hill status in the least. On the contrary, they suggest something else that journalists may not be quite getting.
Hendriks is primarily a fastball pitcher, but an MLB pitcher at the age of 31 has other pitches. He has battled injuries for a good part of this career, but is now healthy again.
Also, for those this means something to, the right-hander is a religious individual, and he credits his faith to an extent for his recent success. For those who like strikes thrown on the edges, he looks like a guy who could be very useful – and for more than one inning, a phenomenon that seems to be returning to MLB.
Hendriks can carry a load for his team, and he doesn’t shy away from a big moment at this point in his career, as evidenced by his effort in the A’s win-or-go-home effort against the White Sox in their most recent Wild Card series.
In the immediately previous game against Chicago, he had not gotten the save despite 49 pitches. The following day he wanted the ball. He struck out the side.
Could that have been the high point of his career? Perhaps. But Liam Hendriks seems more worth the money than a number of guys who recently got relievers’ contracts from the Phillies. At worst, he seems like six-through-nine innings-eater.
Alex Colome
For those wondering why, at this point, three relief pitchers should be signed “first,” let’s say that this is an ideal likely unachievable, but whatever else Phillies fans are worried about, this fact should also be considered: However demanding the team’s other needs, there is only a 6.7 percent chance currently of greatly improving a bullpen in a given season.
As veteran writer Bob Brookover pointed out, in MLB’s most recent season, only two teams improved their bullpens significantly, Kansas City and Baltimore, both of which did not reach the expanded playoffs. With a 200-million-dollar-plus current aggregate payroll for players, the Phillies’ goal is to make the playoffs next year, right? So, this means fixing the bullpen entirely.
Thus, the next Phillies signing target should be Alex Colome, who will soon be eligible to leave the White Sox as a free agent. With two pitches that generate groundballs, a cutter and a four-seamer, this right-hander has significant value in situations with runners on base.
Over the past three years, he has posted an aggregate 2.65 ERA and 1.097 WHIP, with his 2020 numbers coming in at 0.81 and 0.940.
Even a Colome naysayer like Forbes writer Tony Blengino, who leans on “advanced” metrics, has to admit that the big Dominican is a “tough kid who will fight with every weapon he’s got to get the last outs of ball games.” Blengino just thinks Colome isn’t “elite.”
Sometimes a battler who isn’t seen as elite can be more useful than the designated elite pitcher, a Brandon Workman, for example. Workman just blew up in the Phillies’ faces.
The signing of relievers is always an iffy proposition, but this doesn’t mean you shouldn’t try it. In the extreme case of the Phillies, some wholesale thinking is needed, so signing a third veteran for the bullpen is also needed.
Zack Britton
This signing will have to depend on something like luck because Zack Britton may not actually be available. But then again he might be, and if he is, he should be snapped up to be the second left-hander in the bullpen with Alvarez.
In 2019, the Yankees signed Britton to a three-year contract with an option for a fourth year, but the option has to be exercised after the second year of the period – in other words, a few days after the 2020 World Series.
Bad management has no offseason. light. More Phillies
What this means is that New York could be committing themselves to $27 million more for Britton for 2021 and 2022. If they don’t, Britton can choose to exercise the option for next season alone or opt out.
If he opts out, and it appears he may well be considering that path, an opportunity opens up for the Phillies.
Britton has been quite sturdy and effective recently. In the truncated COVID season, he appeared in every third game for the Yankees, and posted a 1.89 ERA with a WHIP of 1.000. If the Bombers opt out of his contract after the fall classic, it would seemingly make sense for him to try to get the better part of his $27 maybe-million elsewhere rather than wait another year in his early thirties, risking injury.
A problem for the Phillies here in this iffy scenario is that they may only have a two-day window to pounce on Britton, between the third and fifth days after the World Series. The pitcher has said that his understanding is that, if New York opts out on the contract on the third day after the Series, he gets only two days to say whether he wants to stay with the club another year.
Could the Phillies get a deal done with a new interim GM in place? Who knows? That this opportunity may open up, however, should be something on their radar.
If Philadelphia could get all three of these pitchers, it’s not clear who would be their closer, since two have been successful closers and the third, Britton, has been an eighth-inning bridge to the closer. Moreover, the Phillies may decide to keep Hector Neris as well.
Next. Phillies should let Realmuto walk. dark
But with those four relievers and Alvarez, even a closer-by-committee approach should produce a far better bullpen than the Phillies had this past summer.